EPAC: DALILA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
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201306262319
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2013, DB, O, 2013062618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962013
EP, 96, 2013062618, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1010W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Kingarabian]

Dat MJO.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COSME...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN A
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

Dat MJO.

Another system that MJO makes. You asked at the TT thread about if Mexico is a threat but we have to wait for the Tropical Bam models when they run for the first time.

[gatorcane]

Lots of convection:

[Kingarabian]

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR
SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[Kingarabian]

By the way we were all fascinated by Cosme's size... But I think future Dalila (GFS/Euro both develop it) could be just as big.

[Yellow Evan]

By the way we were all fascinated by Cosme's size... But I think future Dalila (GFS/Euro both develop it) could be just as big.

IIRC CMC develops it as well.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,what you were asking earlier.



WHXX01 KMIA 270658
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0658 UTC THU JUN 27 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962013) 20130627 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130627 0600 130627 1800 130628 0600 130628 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 101.3W 10.0N 103.0W 9.9N 104.4W 9.8N 105.6W
BAMD 10.0N 101.3W 10.1N 102.8W 10.2N 103.9W 10.2N 104.7W
BAMM 10.0N 101.3W 10.3N 103.0W 10.4N 104.4W 10.2N 105.3W
LBAR 10.0N 101.3W 10.2N 102.3W 10.7N 103.5W 11.4N 104.8W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130629 0600 130630 0600 130701 0600 130702 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.1N 106.4W 10.8N 107.1W 12.7N 107.0W 15.6N 106.0W
BAMD 10.5N 105.0W 12.2N 105.1W 14.6N 105.4W 16.8N 106.7W
BAMM 10.1N 105.8W 11.3N 105.8W 13.4N 105.4W 15.7N 105.4W
LBAR 12.7N 106.1W 16.2N 108.8W 18.9N 111.7W 21.2N 114.6W
SHIP 48KTS 58KTS 60KTS 63KTS
DSHP 48KTS 58KTS 60KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 101.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 101.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 100.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

System has become better organized over the past few hours. Time to break out the orange crayon IMO.

[cycloneye]

Still at yellow.

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

EP, 96, 2013062718, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1030W, 20, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[cycloneye]

No change at 5 PM PDT.

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD.

[gatorcane]

System is looking better organized with a nice burst of convection near the LLC, I suspect the NHC will up the development chances next advisory.

[Yellow Evan]

I am quite surprised it is still at 20% actually.

[Kingarabian]

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

EP, 96, 2013062800, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1033W, 20, 1009, DB

Came out very late.

[Yellow Evan]

Think this could become stronger than Cosme?

[Yellow Evan]

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN