ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[perk]

My guess is the NHC might up that percentage at the next update.

[tailgater]

It looks like Bones material to me!
The trough is onshore already or will be soon. and convection will probably just slowly die off in the next 2 or 3 days. IMHO

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Chance of Development
Storm: 94L
Forecast: 1

48 Hours: 20%
72 Hours: 30%

[ROCK]

My guess is the NHC might up that percentage at the next update.

agree....consolidating at a fast rate now....needs to detach from the trof and get to the surface. Plenty of fuel waiting to be tapped. another thing I have notice is the absense of outflow boundaries down by the main area. Still though the latest Low level convergence map still has this strung out as of 1800 UTC. Would like to see the next map that comes out. Might tell a different story.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[ROCK]

It looks like Bones material to me!
The trough is onshore already or will be soon. and convection will probably just slowly die off in the next 2 or 3 days. IMHO

uh? the trof is still offshore per all the maps I have looked at....

[ozonepete]

My guess is the NHC might up that percentage at the next update.

agree....consolidating at a fast rate now....needs to detach from the trof and get to the surface. Plenty of fuel waiting to be tapped. another thing I have notice is the absense of outflow boundaries down by the main area. Still though the latest Low level convergence map still has this strung out as of 1800 UTC. Would like to see the next map that comes out. Might tell a different story.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Yeah it need to transition from a broad low/trough to a tighter circulation. I would bet there's a few LLCs spinning around under all of that convection since a concentrated area of convection like this always tries to build a single COC. Shear looks to be relaxing as well. The bottom line is I would never discount anything in that area of the Gulf. We've all seen things explode unexpectedly down there...

[perk]

It looks like Bones material to me!
The trough is onshore already or will be soon. and convection will probably just slowly die off in the next 2 or 3 days. IMHO

uh? the trof is still offshore per all the maps I have looked at....

I agree,that trough is not onshore.

[ROCK]

its not model watching time anymore since the system is basically 24-36hrs out. Texas will get rain DJ.....relax

What about SW LA?

of course....dirty side gets the bulk of it....that trof has been inching ever so slowly westward....

[hurricanekid416]

There is still a chance for a weak ts

[ROCK]

There is still a chance for a weak ts

so says the SHIPS....but it needs to stop screwing around and get a main LLC going....

Humberto did the same thing...took forever to get a LLC....had a MLC most of its life and would pulse up and down during the day and fizzle at night.....only when it approached the upper TX coast did it finally consolidate and made Cat1 in record fashion.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Not sure what the NHC sees when it states "upper-level winds becoming less conducive..."

If anything I see them becoming more conducive as the upper-level low over Illinois is weakening and hence SW shear over the North Western GOM is relaxing some as upper-level High-pressure is building in from the NW with center over NW Texas / Western Oklahoma.

The biggest problem with this trough preventing development is proximity to land (and the fact it is running out of time before it moves over land) but I think the percent chance of development should be raised a little next advisory to 20%.

Depending upon how convection looks overnight into tomorrow morning, this percentage chance may have to be raised a little more.

In the end, more than likely won't get named though.

[Alyono]

Not seeing any signs of this organizing at all. Furthermore, the axis is going to be onshore in l;ess than 12 hours, likely in NE Mexico

[tailgater]

This is the position of the trough as of 12Z. It still stands a chance of development but just not that old trough.IMHO

[hurricanekid416]

If it can go far enough north I think it has a chance and a little off topic but there may be a lot of unnamed storms found after the season

[hurricanekid416]

There is still a chance for a weak ts

so says the SHIPS....but it needs to stop screwing around and get a main LLC going....

Humberto did the same thing...took forever to get a LLC....had a MLC most of its life and would pulse up and down during the day and fizzle at night.....only when it approached the upper TX coast did it finally consolidate and made Cat1 in record fashion.

That's was a crazy once in a lifetime thing for a hurricane to do and I was only 9 when that happened lol

[cycloneye]

Remains at 10%.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO TOWARD THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF COASTS THROUGH
MONDAY.

[Ntxw]

Latest satellite loop

[Blown Away]

Sure is alot of energy down there, just can't get organized.

[Dean4Storms]

I might be looking at loops to long, I don't know. But I think I see a lower level circulation way out near 25.5N 89.5W or it could be at mid level. Does anyone else see what I'm seeing?

Maybe now more like 26N drifting north. Been watching it most of the day.

Must be a mid level vort, I don't see any surface obs indicating a surface low there.

[Nimbus]

There has been a hot tower under a building anticyclone, thats all you can see from above.
The convection near the hot tower is beginning to blow off again but that would have been a good place for the lowest surface pressure.