ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[ROCK]

Happy Hurricane Season, ozonepete! lol
This looked like a great solution, for at least some parts of Texas, to the drought, since it should be weak, but eh, it might not happen. It's kind of weird how much of a drought Texas has seen the past few years since it's usually so wet here. I guess it's feast or famine.
With all the hurricanes that have devastated Texas the past several years, I hope it's just a rainmaker that finally rids Texas of this incessant drought.

well said SG....this might be rain only but we will take it. Already I am in water restrictions. Texas hasnt had a major in 27 years. Back in the 40's and 50's they were common. We are about due as our FL folks if there is such a thing as over due....

[StormingB81]

Reading this I know it is a bit off topic but that tropical system (tropical storm Don I believe?) a couple years ago that everyone thought was going to break the drought and went poof that quick as it headed to the texas coast.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 94, 2013070612, , BEST, 0, 226N, 958W, 20, 1009, LO

[cycloneye]

SSD floater up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[vbhoutex]

Sorry to say the 8 PM runs are in and the models aren't doing anything with it, other than some rain on the Texas coast that doesn't work very far in to the interior of the state. The latest satellite loops also show a sheared mess, unfortunately. The chances for a big rainmaker are really going downhill.

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NOT what us here in TX want to hear Pete! We have been burned so many times these past few years. (hence the severe drought)

I hear you. But it really looks like some of these systems are going to make it in there this hurricane season. There's a lot of activity out there already and a lot more expected. So if the Bermuda high keeps extending westward for the next couple of months at least one or two of these storms should make it to Texas. You guys are due. Actually way overdue. We are all rooting for you.

Uh, we can do without the "rooting for you" for tropical systems!! LOL!! Of course that comes with the caveat of BRING ON THE RAINS!! SG has been luckier than some of us in the rainfall dept. Except for a .50" storm the other day I hadn't had any rain in almost three weeks.
With the area retrograding from the East that has flooded NW FL moving our way slowly and 94L heading N to NW I am hoping for rain from the possible convergence in the NW GOM. Of course we don't want the flooding that may come with a convergence of two very wet systems while at the same time some areas are so dry that most of the run off would be absorbed. I guess we have a double edged sword here.
Looking at WV sat loop tells me that there is PLENTY of moisture in the GOM and all of it is heading towards the NW GOM. Shear appears to be abating some also. I am to a point I will not be surprised at a spin up in the NW or W GOM. Hopefully IF that happens it will be a minimal TS at most due to proximity to land.

[tailgater]

Shear has dropped off a good bit, but there doesn't seem to be any focused area of vorticity so we'll probably just get the heavy rain aspect over a larger area.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8sht.GIF

hope it's not too much of a good thing

[CrazyC83]

This definitely doesn't look like a system that is bound to develop though. The tropics can surprise however!

[NDG]

I see nothing but southerly winds all around where they have 94L's Best Track position at 12z this morning.
I think a new area of vorticity will develop or is developing east of Brownsville/Corpus C. area, IMO.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Invest 94L

[Nimbus]

The convection is all blown off to the east, but at least we have an invest.
1009 Mb at the surface so we might get a TD as the shear continues to drop off.

[floridasun78]

their going to be fight between 94l to 95l to become who going to TD

[ROCK]

so much better now than last night.....reminds me of Humberto.

[Nimbus]

The convection is converging fast as the front to the north is lifting out.
Has the steering changed any in the latest model runs?

[ROCK]

its not model watching time anymore since the system is basically 24-36hrs out. Texas will get rain DJ.....relax

[ROCK]

The convection is converging fast as the front to the north is lifting out.
Has the steering changed any in the latest model runs?

no... North to NW...as of right now...

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

anti-cyclone trying to form over it? looks that way...

shear dropping off fast...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[ROCK]

anyone have a micro wave pass / ASCAT pass? really looks like banding features starting to take shape. Should go up to 30%....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

[NDG]

anyone have a micro wave pass / ASCAT pass? really looks like banding features starting to take shape. Should go up to 30%....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

There is really no need for an ASCAT pass, there is plenty of offshore reports from buoys etc in the GOM, which by the way, the only surface vorticity that I see is east of Brownsville moving north.

[Ntxw]

I like how convection is starting to consolidate, increases chance of organization of late

[Ptarmigan]

well said SG....this might be rain only but we will take it. Already I am in water restrictions. Texas hasnt had a major in 27 years. Back in the 40's and 50's they were common. We are about due as our FL folks if there is such a thing as over due....

Since Texas had a cool spring, I found there is a correlation between cool springs and major hurricane making landfall.

Here is a statistical analysis of Spring Temperatures from 1895 to 2012 for the Upper Texas Coast. Spring is from March to May. The correlation is two-tailed.

Tropical Storm
r = -0.03
p = 0.71

Hurricane
r = 0.10
p = 0.26

Major Hurricane
r = -0.21
p = 0.02

Total Tropical Cyclone Landfall
r = -0.05
p = 0.58

There is a significant correlation between cooler springs and major hurricanes making landfall on the Upper Texas Coast in the same year as the p-value is below 0.05. Does it mean if we have a cool spring, do we always see major hurricanes making landfall on the Upper Texas Coast? No, just more chance seeing one.

Interestingly, if spring is warmer, Upper Texas Coast is more likely to see a hurricane make landfall. However, the correlation is not significant enough as the p-value is above 0.05.

Major Hurricanes In Top 20 Coolest Spring
1915-Galveston Hurricane of 1915 (Category 3)
1932-Freeport Hurricane (Category 4)
1941-Hurricane #2 (Category 3 Based on Reanalysis)
1983-Alicia (Category 3)

Hurricanes In Top 20 Coolest Spring
1947-Hurricane #3 (Category 1)