ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[BigB0882]

If thi can organize to a TD or even TS then it should consolidate and bring much more rain to TX. If it remains sheared then the rain remains well East.

Not a forecast!

[mcheer23]

If this develops it would probably rob SE TX of some rain. Models have it hitting N Mex.

[Ptarmigan]

If this develops it would probably rob SE TX of some rain. Models have it hitting N Mex.

I have seen storms that hit Northern Mexico and Texas gets a good soaker, like Hurricane Alex in 2010.

[southerngale]

well said SG....this might be rain only but we will take it. Already I am in water restrictions. Texas hasnt had a major in 27 years. Back in the 40's and 50's they were common. We are about due as our FL folks if there is such a thing as over due....

Well, Rita was a major. Missed y'all, but devastated this area of SE TX.
And although Ike wasn't technically a major, he sure acted like one.

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[ROCK]

well said SG....this might be rain only but we will take it. Already I am in water restrictions. Texas hasnt had a major in 27 years. Back in the 40's and 50's they were common. We are about due as our FL folks if there is such a thing as over due....

Well, Rita was a major. Missed y'all, but devastated this area of SE TX.
And although Ike wasn't technically a major, he sure acted like one.

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Ike was a strong 2 with a cat 4 surge....so yeah acted like it in some respects...I was meaning more galveston area...

[Florida1118]

Down to 10%......

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA THROUGH MONDAY.

[Javlin]

Looks like a battle between the high in the Atlantic and the Mid-West I imagine the Atl will probably win according to the models but looks a stalemate this afternoon?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[jabman98]

I've held off watering the garden today. Come on, rain! I really hope the rain gets inland. All of Texas needs the rain.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yep the ridge out in the atl was supposed to build and push the eastern gom rains over us today, tomorrrow and into monday. Definitely not happening today as the slug of rains are still streaming north from biloxi/mobile into the fl panhandle, not making any progress west like was forecast. Hopefully that means 94 can move more north toward the tx/LA line and bring us his rains.

[Javlin]

Yep the ridge out in the atl was supposed to build and push the eastern gom rains over us today, tomorrrow and into monday. Definitely not happening today as the slug of rains are still streaming north from biloxi/mobile into the fl panhandle, not making any progress west like was forecast. Hopefully that means 94 can move more north toward the tx/LA line and bring us his rains.

To be honest Mike the rains have decreased here in Biloxi in the last couple hrs and looks to be moving E back to Panama/Pensacola area.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

We just can't catch a break. Never got any yesterday either. Funny how nature equals itself out. We had record breaking rainfall this winter and now in a miniature drought the past month and a half or so. I'm really pulling for this to develop and move due north to bring us some rains.

[LaBreeze]

Do you think that 94L will rob all of the moisture affecting Mississippi to Florida or will it keep the moisture from moving west and push it back to the east? Just wondering what everyone's thoughts are on this. Thanks in advance.

[LaBreeze]

its not model watching time anymore since the system is basically 24-36hrs out. Texas will get rain DJ.....relax

What about SW LA?

[hurricanekid416]

It looks like convection is slowly coming together so Texas will get much needed rain the nhc may bump it back to 20%

[ozonepete]

It looks like convection is slowly coming together so Texas will get much needed rain the nhc may bump it back to 20%

You could be right. I have a feeling they might bump it back up again since convection has really blown up and the SHIPS model still has it getting to just over TS in 36 hours. You can't see under it so until we get some microwave images we can't see if anything starts spinning in the lower levels.

[ozonepete]

Do you think that 94L will rob all of the moisture affecting Mississippi to Florida or will it keep the moisture from moving west and push it back to the east? Just wondering what everyone's thoughts are on this. Thanks in advance.

The two systems should become more separate soon. The models have the northern Gulf precip gradually dissipating and this disturbance going into northern Mexico just south of Brownsville. So nothing much has changed except that only one model (SHIPS) still intensifies it to a minimal TS right now. At least south Texas will get some beneficial rain.

[perk]

That ull appears to be pulling out.

[ozonepete]

Yeah that ULL is weakening a little finally and moving north. This could help get the rain a little further north.

[ROCK]

I have watched 2 vortexes break off from the trof....one is south of TX/LA line and another is in the main blob south of LA....little mini-vortexes spinning about out there...

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

shear continues to abate....reminds me of Humberto...