ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

When will the plane get there today?

No recon is scheduled.

[Bartholemew Roberts]

When will the plane get there today?

No recon is scheduled.

How much prep time do those guys need? What else do they have to do?

[fci]

My $.02 tossed in since I have been a member for quite a while now and occasionally have to get my wrist slapped (or suspended) for getting a bit emotional/sarcastic.

S2K is the best site I have found for Tropical Information/Discussion because of the Pro Mets and informed amateurs. There are specific Pro Mets that I search for amongst the posts in threads at key times; wxman57, airforcemet, Tony (AJC3), many years ago Derek Ortt, and others who I see post off and on (I apologize for not listing you!)

I think the issue brought up in the thread is the "tone" that is sometimes used with the Pro Mets. They will not be correct every time. Either is the NWS. Some users will reject their opinions because it goes against what they "want" to happen. I echo the sentiment above that those who "want" storms should experience the storm from the perspective of a homeowner who has suffered from a storm, or a business owner who loses their business or a lot of revenue; anyone who suffers hardships.

That being said, sometimes we are little too sensitive to "political correctness" and take comments a bit too literally or seriously (I certainly have erupted at kids who ask the same question over and over or "wishcast"; and I am learning to simply ignore them or just report them to a Mod). This is an awesome board and we should value all opinions but particularly those of the Pro Mets who sacrifice the time to engage with us amateurs.

Remember, without Pro Mets this board would cease to be more than a shouting zone for people who really don't know what they are talking about! Be mindful and respectful of them. If you disagree, explain WHY and do it in a respectful manner, it will be appreciated by all.

Finally (I am a bit long-winded); when it is crunch time (defined as a life/property threatening storm), let's all try to refrain from chit-chat BS on the board. This is a source of extremely important information and to have scroll through post after post of "I agree", "The NWS is wrong", "Me Too"..... is very frustrating.

To all; good luck this season and may we all have fun and remain safe!
fci

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like there is a weak circ developing in that little notch in the convection.. you can see the last few frames the change in direction of the low level clouds and a little curvature on the south side.. not sure if it will be able to do it but clearly its trying.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Florida1118]

When will the plane get there today?

No recon is scheduled.

How much prep time do those guys need? What else do they have to do?

Well first off it takes a lot of time to fuel the plane, start the engines, get all the equipment on and checked, etc etc., and second they have lives out side of flying into storms, and third, there is no point in wasting tax dollars on this system, unless it gets more organized, so RECON wont go out.

[Aric Dunn]

And there it is just showed its tiny little face.. right in the middle if that notch.. lets see if it can deepen and take hold and not get spit out.. .


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


15 images.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Hurricaneman]

And there it is just showed its tiny little face.. right in the middle if that notch.. lets see if it can deepen and take hold and not get spit out.. .


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


15 images.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

That may be the beginning of the revival of Chantal if that center stays under the convection

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[scotto]

Looks like the NW side is hitting a brick wall.

[eyesontropics]

My $.02 tossed in since I have been a member for quite a while now and occasionally have to get my wrist slapped (or suspended) for getting a bit emotional/sarcastic.

S2K is the best site I have found for Tropical Information/Discussion because of the Pro Mets and informed amateurs. There are specific Pro Mets that I search for amongst the posts in threads at key times; wxman57, airforcemet, Tony (AJC3), many years ago Derek Ortt, and others who I see post off and on (I apologize for not listing you!)

I think the issue brought up in the thread is the "tone" that is sometimes used with the Pro Mets. They will not be correct every time. Either is the NWS. Some users will reject their opinions because it goes against what they "want" to happen. I echo the sentiment above that those who "want" storms should experience the storm from the perspective of a homeowner who has suffered from a storm, or a business owner who loses their business or a lot of revenue; anyone who suffers hardships.

That being said, sometimes we are little too sensitive to "political correctness" and take comments a bit too literally or seriously (I certainly have erupted at kids who ask the same question over and over or "wishcast"; and I am learning to simply ignore them or just report them to a Mod). This is an awesome board and we should value all opinions but particularly those of the Pro Mets who sacrifice the time to engage with us amateurs.

Remember, without Pro Mets this board would cease to be more than a shouting zone for people who really don't know what they are talking about! Be mindful and respectful of them. If you disagree, explain WHY and do it in a respectful manner, it will be appreciated by all.

Finally (I am a bit long-winded); when it is crunch time (defined as a life/property threatening storm), let's all try to refrain from chit-chat BS on the board. This is a source of extremely important information and to have scroll through post after post of "I agree", "The NWS is wrong", "Me Too"..... is very frustrating.

To all; good luck this season and may we all have fun and remain safe!
fci

Well said fci....I do miss Derek Ortt, but after having to replace my roof and 3 weeks without electricity in 2004, thanks Frances and Jeanne. wxman57, AJC3 and many other ProMets, help to teach me and keep me calm. Thank you all and Storm2K!

[seahawkjd]

Not trying to derail the threat but what happened to Mr. Ortt? I always enjoyed his analysis.

[Bartholemew Roberts]

Assuming a storm forms north of the Bahamas where would it go?


-----------

[Aric Dunn]

looking better the circ has fresh convection building over it.
looks like it might make a run at it..

dont count it out yet lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[cycloneye]

Nothing new.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND
ARE MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
UNLIKELY...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[JonathanBelles]

There are a lot of boundaries bouncing around in the vicinity of this system. Two LLC's shooting out, the FL and cuban sea breezes racing toward 96L. There's also some sort of wave evident along what may be the axis that is quickly moving east. That axis is from NNE to SSW. At first I thought it might be shear taking off the highest tops, but it's not all that evident on the coldest tops. That ULL near the keys is also in play. I don't think this has a chance of regeneration within the next 24 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

There are a lot of boundaries bouncing around in the vicinity of this system. Two LLC's shooting out, the FL and cuban sea breezes racing toward 96L. There's also some sort of wave evident along what may be the axis that is quickly moving east. That axis is from NNE to SSW. At first I thought it might be shear taking off the highest tops, but it's not all that evident on the coldest tops. That ULL near the keys is also in play. I don't think this has a chance of regeneration within the next 24 hours.

yeah not going to be a fast process at all.. tonight it will move into an area of low shear... since there is a big of a surface reflection. I figure when the ridge starts to build back in tomorrow and it takes a nnw turn that it will get a little extra rotational energy and could have a better chance.

[SouthernBreeze]

Hi, just wondering what the predicted destination is for this "thing"? I'm certainly hoping it steers clear of the northern SC coast, as we have been under flood warnings for weeks & do not need any more abundant rains!

[jaguarjace]

I got a question about chantal that may sound alittle stupid.. is it pronounced chan"tall or chan"tail"

I'm from Australia and I think it pronounced like 'Chan (Jackie Chan) Tal (Tally Scores)', just my opinion.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 96, 2013071300, , BEST, 0, 290N, 762W, 25, 1013, DB

[CrazyC83]

Obviously no comparison in intensity (hurricane vs. wave) but notice a Sandy-like track (just farther south and west)? That blocking pattern could be problematic later on...

[ozonepete]

I couldn't get on here all day but was checking the satellite images when I could. Boy, is this a fighter. Just doesn't want to give up. I saw how NHC dropped it to 10% and then bumped it to 20%. Who knows what to do with this one, lol. Anyway I just checked the stats and it looks like it still has a decent shot. A key element is that it looks like the southerly flow on the east side of the trough along the east coast is receding northwestward and weakening somewhat, apparently just enough that this system is getting left behind in very light northerly flow. Then it might just hang around there east of Florida or Georgia for another day or two. That would give it another shot at intensifying since the shear is really low there. A little drift to the northwest would be ideal - there's very little shear there and very, very light steering winds. Just a little bit more eastward and the shear is pretty bad.