ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[AJC3]

I got a questiom about chantal that may sound alittle stupid.. is it pronounced chan"tall or chan"tail"

Shawn-tall

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
CHANTAL HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE STILL
LACKS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LITTLE OR
NO DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[hurricanekid416]

Up to 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
CHANTAL HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE STILL
LACKS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LITTLE OR
NO DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Chantal is still fighting somehow

[northtxboy]

I got a questiom about chantal that may sound alittle stupid.. is it pronounced chan"tall or chan"tail"

Shawn-tall

Thanks

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 96, 2013071218, , BEST, 0, 276N, 766W, 25, 1014, DB

[wxman57]

If everybody only listened to professional meteorologists all the time, nothing would get done. Debate between others creates ideas, which creates solutions to issues that wouldn't otherwise have been resolved. Being a meteorologist doesn't mean you're always right...I can't count how many times I've seen an amateur completely school a professional meteorologist both here and about every other forum I've ever visited. Debates are a good learning experience. Just my opinion.

I'm not sure what we're trying to "get done" here. It IS a public forum and anyone should be able to express his or her opinions. We all just like talking about the weather. I wish we had the internet when I was growing up back in the 1950s/60s. As a professional, I would prefer that the opinions have some basis in fact/meteorological data rather than a (perceived) desire for development. Of course, I realize that's not always going to be the case. Some here might get a bit overly enthusiastic during hurricane season, but I never complain about that on the forum. Like I said, it's a public forum. I'll try to offer my input where I can and help some of you to understand what I'm seeing.

As for Chantal, I can't really see any reason to increase development chances from 10% to 20%. But every meteorologist has his/her own way to calculate development chances. I don't see any increase in convection or rotation. It's still a sheared mess of scattered squalls.

[Tireman4]

A suggestion to the rookies is to listen to the pro-mets and not argue with them ... they know what they're talking about.

I learned that lesson 2 seasons ago. wxman57 schooled me lots of times, people be like "it looks like its getting organized", and then wxman57 will be like "its just a few thunderstorms". And the very next post someone will say "OMG, it looks like a hurricane, I can see the Eye!!!" He maybe wrong along the way sometimes but the end result wxman57 is alway right. I have even seen him schooled othernpro mets

He nailed the Ike landfall

[JonathanBelles]

I'm not sure what we're trying to "get done" here. It IS a public forum and anyone should be able to express his or her opinions. We all just like talking about the weather. I wish we had the internet when I was growing up back in the 1950s/60s. As a professional, I would prefer that the opinions have some basis in fact/meteorological data rather than a (perceived) desire for development. Of course, I realize that's not always going to be the case. Some here might get a bit overly enthusiastic during hurricane season, but I never complain about that on the forum. Like I said, it's a public forum. I'll try to offer my input where I can and help some of you to understand what I'm seeing.

This is very close to my thoughts on the topic. I grew up in meteorology in early high school with no experience. I gained experience by picking apart storms at the time horizontally, and often as a joke because I had no idea what was going on. People would tell me that I was wrong, and I got mad, learned from it and got smarter. Now, I use an objective analysis thought process that I had to develop, and generally I am on the conservative side now. If meteorologists didn't pick apart each cumulus cloud, we would not have the understanding that we do today. I still know nothing about tropical cyclones, but i'm learning as much as possible. To the young brains out there: fail boldly then accept criticisms that you get so that you can fail a little less boldly next time. And for the wishcasters: before you wish anything upon yourself, go to your local wind museum and experience a lifesize wind/hurricane/tornado machine and imagine that for a day or two, and then throw in water, surge, lightning, and the lack of power. For the pro-mets: fantastic job!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If everybody only listened to professional meteorologists all the time, nothing would get done. Debate between others creates ideas, which creates solutions to issues that wouldn't otherwise have been resolved. Being a meteorologist doesn't mean you're always right...I can't count how many times I've seen an amateur completely school a professional meteorologist both here and about every other forum I've ever visited. Debates are a good learning experience. Just my opinion.

I'm not sure what we're trying to "get done" here. It IS a public forum and anyone should be able to express his or her opinions. We all just like talking about the weather. I wish we had the internet when I was growing up back in the 1950s/60s. As a professional, I would prefer that the opinions have some basis in fact/meteorological data rather than a (perceived) desire for development. Of course, I realize that's not always going to be the case. Some here might get a bit overly enthusiastic during hurricane season, but I never complain about that on the forum. Like I said, it's a public forum. I'll try to offer my input where I can and help some of you to understand what I'm seeing.

When I say nothing would get done, I mean issues that we don't understand in the meteorological world wouldn't be solved. Just a general statement, not pertaining to Storm2k specifically.

The remnants of Chantal seem to be organizing quite quickly this afternoon. It's a shame recon was cancelled.

[cycloneye]

18z guidance for 96L.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI JUL 12 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE CHANTAL (AL962013) 20130712 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130712 1800 130713 0600 130713 1800 130714 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.6N 76.6W 29.8N 77.1W 31.9N 78.4W 34.0N 80.7W
BAMD 27.6N 76.6W 29.3N 76.8W 31.2N 78.1W 33.3N 80.8W
BAMM 27.6N 76.6W 29.5N 77.0W 31.6N 78.2W 33.7N 80.7W
LBAR 27.6N 76.6W 29.8N 76.4W 32.2N 76.9W 35.0N 78.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130714 1800 130715 1800 130716 1800 130717 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 36.1N 83.5W 39.7N 87.5W 42.2N 87.5W 42.1N 82.2W
BAMD 35.8N 84.7W 40.8N 91.5W 44.8N 90.3W 43.8N 77.9W
BAMM 36.1N 84.0W 40.6N 89.3W 43.9N 87.6W 42.7N 78.9W
LBAR 37.8N 82.0W 41.5N 89.9W 44.6N 89.9W 44.2N 82.0W
SHIP 39KTS 34KTS 31KTS 31KTS
DSHP 28KTS 29KTS 30KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.6N LONCUR = 76.6W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 25.0N LONM12 = 76.6W DIRM12 = 357DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 21.8N LONM24 = 76.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Aric Dunn]

If everybody only listened to professional meteorologists all the time, nothing would get done. Debate between others creates ideas, which creates solutions to issues that wouldn't otherwise have been resolved. Being a meteorologist doesn't mean you're always right...I can't count how many times I've seen an amateur completely school a professional meteorologist both here and about every other forum I've ever visited. Debates are a good learning experience. Just my opinion.

I'm not sure what we're trying to "get done" here. It IS a public forum and anyone should be able to express his or her opinions. We all just like talking about the weather. I wish we had the internet when I was growing up back in the 1950s/60s. As a professional, I would prefer that the opinions have some basis in fact/meteorological data rather than a (perceived) desire for development. Of course, I realize that's not always going to be the case. Some here might get a bit overly enthusiastic during hurricane season, but I never complain about that on the forum. Like I said, it's a public forum. I'll try to offer my input where I can and help some of you to understand what I'm seeing.

When I say nothing would get done, I mean issues that we don't understand in the meteorological world wouldn't be solved. Just a general statement, not pertaining to Storm2k specifically.

The remnants of Chantal seem to be organizing quite quickly this afternoon. It's a shame recon was cancelled.

I mentioned it a couple pages ago that there was some signs the mid level circ may have working its way down.. Im seeing more low level clouds beginning to be pulled in and clearly there is a good low to mid level circ.. not likely to be all the way to the surface yet.

[tolakram]

A swirl ejecting toward the north. Interesting. I also believe I can see low level clouds moving beginning to move south on the north west side of the convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Aric Dunn]

A swirl ejecting toward the north. Interesting. I also believe I can see low level clouds moving beginning to move south on the north west side of the convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

yeah that one swirl got shot out .. which means the MLC is spawning circ... but there appears to be a much more pronounced circ developing in the convection..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[AJC3]

A swirl ejecting toward the north. Interesting. I also believe I can see low level clouds moving beginning to move south on the north west side of the convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

I mega-zoomed (to the point where ones eyes don't "move north" along with the flow) in to where a low level vortex is trying to form, and the convective CU lines are still drifting north in that area. It's just that the clouds to the east are moving northward much faster.

[Aric Dunn]

A swirl ejecting toward the north. Interesting. I also believe I can see low level clouds moving beginning to move south on the north west side of the convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

I mega-zoomed (to the point where ones eyes don't "move north" along with the flow) in to where a low level vortex is trying to form, and the convective CU lines are still drifting north in that area. It's just that the clouds to the east are moving northward much faster.

that MLC is well defined.. you think its trying to get going ?

[AJC3]

A swirl ejecting toward the north. Interesting. I also believe I can see low level clouds moving beginning to move south on the north west side of the convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

I mega-zoomed (to the point where ones eyes don't "move north" along with the flow) in to where a low level vortex is trying to form, and the convective CU lines are still drifting north in that area. It's just that the clouds to the east are moving northward much faster.

that MLC is well defined.. you think its trying to get going ?

Looks like it's trying to consolidate, but got a ways to go (it recently spat out both a large arc cloud and a small vortex northward), and time is definitely not on its side.

[Dave C]

I've been with this forum for quite some time and when there is a system in the invest stage you get a lot of "it looks good" then another will say minutes later " it looks horrible" and then disagreement settles in. Just simple respect about each others opinions goes a long way. Not something like "he doesn't know what he's talking about" Wx man 57 from my perspective is the voice of reason many times and gets bashed a little for it. Again simple respect between all of us goes a long way!

[hurricanekid416]

There looks like a circulation trying to form on the northwest of the convection

[Decomdoug]

I'm not sure what we're trying to "get done" here. It IS a public forum and anyone should be able to express his or her opinions. We all just like talking about the weather. I wish we had the internet when I was growing up back in the 1950s/60s. As a professional, I would prefer that the opinions have some basis in fact/meteorological data rather than a (perceived) desire for development. Of course, I realize that's not always going to be the case. Some here might get a bit overly enthusiastic during hurricane season, but I never complain about that on the forum. Like I said, it's a public forum. I'll try to offer my input where I can and help some of you to understand what I'm seeing.

This is very close to my thoughts on the topic. I grew up in meteorology in early high school with no experience. I gained experience by picking apart storms at the time horizontally, and often as a joke because I had no idea what was going on. People would tell me that I was wrong, and I got mad, learned from it and got smarter. Now, I use an objective analysis thought process that I had to develop, and generally I am on the conservative side now. If meteorologists didn't pick apart each cumulus cloud, we would not have the understanding that we do today. I still know nothing about tropical cyclones, but i'm learning as much as possible. To the young brains out there: fail boldly then accept criticisms that you get so that you can fail a little less boldly next time. And for the wishcasters: before you wish anything upon yourself, go to your local wind museum and experience a lifesize wind/hurricane/tornado machine and imagine that for a day or two, and then throw in water, surge, lightning, and the lack of power. For the pro-mets: fantastic job!

I would like to express my sincere thanks to all the Pro Mets and learned amateurs here on Storm2K for their time and input.
I come to this site for information and knowledge which I can in turn use in my day to day work to make informed decisions when needed. I also have been fascinated with Tropical Systems since I was 14 which was many, many moons ago.

[Bartholemew Roberts]

When will the plane get there today?