WPAC: CIMARON - Post-tropical

[Hurricane_Luis]

Invest 93W. East of Palau.

[Hurricane_Luis]

From the JTWC

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 134.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 10 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A
131449Z OSCAT PASS DEPICTS THIS TROUGHING, WITH THE MAXIMUM TURNING
LOCATED OVER THE ISLAND OF PALAU. WINDS WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS, HOWEVER ISOLATED HIGHER VALUES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION ARE PRESENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF DEVELOPMENT, WITH LIGHT (05-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
TO THE NORTH. A TIME SERIES OF 850 MB VORTICITY AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. SEVERAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

euro develops this into a weak area of low pressure possibly TD before crossing the philippines...more rain coming for them...




increasing...

[HURAKAN]

upper-level low producing strong shear over the system

[dexterlabio]

Will it survive? I'm thinking this could develop no more than a TD. But what do I know?

By the way, the next name to be used is Cimaron. I don't know why this name wasn't retired, I remember it was a Cat5 supertyphoon back in Oct 2006 and I experienced its brunt when we were in the province for All Saint's Day. OT, sorry lol.

[mrbagyo]

By the way, the next name to be used is Cimaron. I don't know why this name wasn't retired, I remember it was a Cat5 supertyphoon back in Oct 2006

yeah Cimaron of 2006 was such an amazing storm. one of the best looking TC.
I think the name wasn't retired because it made landfall in a sparsely populated area. thus the damage and death toll was not that huge to be considered for retirement. even if it made landfall as an extremely rare category 5.
heck, even typhoon Chebi wasn't retired...

Xangsane, Durian, Saomai, Chanchu - all did huge damage and were all retired.

now back to 93w...
CMC barely develop this one( maybe a TD) but is very consistent about a system to form in the South China Sea, drifting northward then curving to the west until it smash Hainan, northern Vietnam area

[dexterlabio]

yeah Cimaron of 2006 was such an amazing storm. one of the best looking TC.
I think the name wasn't retired because it made landfall in a sparsely populated area. thus the damage and death toll was not that huge to be considered for retirement. even if it made landfall as an extremely rare category 5.
heck, even typhoon Chebi wasn't retired...

Xangsane, Durian, Saomai, Chanchu - all did huge damage and were all retired.

ahh...2006 is one of the most memorable typhoon seasons for me, I remember almost all named storms that year especially the really intense ones, but yeah not all of those would be retired.



On 93W, it's interesting to note that models initialize the system far north of 7.5N latitude where the JTWC last reported its location... It's actually closer to the area where a nice blowout of convection occurs as of posting.

[dexterlabio]

I'm not sure if being too close to that ULL would help this one to develop.

[ejeraldmc]

It now looks like a good blob of convection

[mrbagyo]

It now looks like a good blob of convection

yeah, convection is flaring as of now, but I still cannot see a distinct low level circulation...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Center of circulation is unclear but convection is starting to impress me. My guess is that the center of circulation is around 10.8N 127.5E.


If this develops, this may peak around 40-50 knots and have thick convection.
TRACK: This will move northwest then NNW at peak intensity

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N
133.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND AN IMPROVING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE
SEVERAL DEGREES NORTHWARD OF THE PRIOR POSITION. WHILE THE MOST
RECENT ASCAT AND OSCAT IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT TROUGHING, LOW- TO
MID- LEVEL CLOUD LINES IN THE EIR SUGGEST WESTERLY WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, A TIME SERIES OF
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 850 MB VORTICITY SUPPORTS IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD, GOOD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH, AND MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY
FAVORABLE AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. WINDS WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH INCREASING VALUES TO THE NORTHEAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SEVERAL DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CIRCULATION
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better organized

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 150321
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 15/0232Z

C. 14.3N

D. 126.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LLCC LOOKING MORE DISTINCT IN VIS AS WELL AS 14/2339
SSMIS PASS. DT OF 1.0 BASED ON .25 BANDING. MET AND PT ARE 1.0.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LIDDICK

[mrbagyo]

it's now a tropical depression according to JMA.

[mrbagyo]

and...
TCFA



WTPN21 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 126.7E TO 16.9N 121.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 152332Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 126.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
128.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED WEAK BANDING AND FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE EFFECTS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 150134Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ
IMAGE AS WELL AS A 150134Z ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORT THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LLCC AND MSI INTERPRETATION. A TIME SERIES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND 850 MB VORTICITY INDICATES THE STEADILY IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD,
GOOD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH, AND MODERATE (10-
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. SEVERAL
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND TC GENESIS PRODUCTS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE TC GENESIS AIDS AND THE OBSERVED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160600Z.//
NNNN

[senorpepr]

Not see a great deal of development out of this new depression... but certainly worth watching:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sl0QPNq-gWE[/youtube]

[euro6208]

I think this has a better chance once it emerges in the SCS. That is if it makes it.

[phwxenthusiast]

LLCC showing up on Virac Radar:

http://prsd.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/legazpi/ ... adar-image

strong convection all of a sudden, lol... we'll see how it emerges for the diurnal minimum tomorrow.. won't be surprised if we see a weak-TS out of this...

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[HURAKAN]

strong burst