WPAC: Tropical Depression (94W)

[mrbagyo]

another one...
94WINVEST.15kts-
1010mb-120N-1126E.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Grifforzer]

Tropical Depression from Japan Meteorological Agency

** WTPQ21 RJTD 180000 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 13.3N 114.5E POOR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 16.0N 114.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

** WTPQ31 RJTD 180000 ***

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 13.3N 114.5E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 180000 UTC IS POOR BECAUSE OF OBSCURE CLOUD PATTERN.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2N 114.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT, WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
OVER THE CONVERGENT SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 180044Z
SSMIS 37V IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING LOOSELY INTO A BROAD LLCC. A 180129Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A
171634Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOW A DEFINED, BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO
15 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH CONVERGENT, CYCLONIC EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LLCC
AND WEAK TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD HAINAN
ISLAND AND NORTHERN VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Grifforzer]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 114.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.5E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY- CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC. AN 181155Z SSMIS 37V IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED, CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY INTO A BROAD LLCC. AN 180452Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED YET DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CONVERGENT, CYCLONIC EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LLCC AND WEAK TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD HAINAN ISLAND AND NORTHERN VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Grifforzer]

** WTPQ21 RJTD 190300 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 15.1N 112.4E POOR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 200300UTC 16.8N 110.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

In the South China Sea

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9N
113.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 112.2E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 190152Z METOP-A 89H
IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 190154Z
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

TXPQ22 KNES 190327
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 19/0232Z

C. 15.8N

D. 111.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...INITIAL CLASSIFICATION FOR 94W. SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS
BETTER IN VIS IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH BANDING
CONVECTION MAINLY IN WESTERN SEMICIRCLE..ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT IMAGERY
SHOWING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND IN SOUTHEAST QUAD. 3 TENTHS
BANDING GIVES DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI

[Grifforzer]

TD b
16:19 JST July 19
Existence region South China Sea
Center position 15 degrees north latitude (15.0 degrees) 112 degrees east longitude (112.0 degrees)
Direction of travel, speed Northwest 20km / h (10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa

no longer forecast to become a tropical storm..

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2N
112.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 191355Z
METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK DEEP CONVECTION WHILE HINTING AT
LOW TO MID-LEVEL TURNING. A 191634Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS DOES NOT
RESOLVE THE LLCC IDENTIFIED IN THE EIR, BUT DOES REVEAL 10 TO 15
KNOT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH
CHINA SEA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[senorpepr]

A quick video update on this depression. Also a quick blurb on Super Swirl 95W and Invest 96W.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruhudwNfzeU[/youtube]