CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep982013.invest
FSTDA
R
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040
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201307211225
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NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013072112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP982013
EP, 98, 2013072012, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1000W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2013072018, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1010W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2013072100, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1020W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2013072106, , BEST, 0, 103N, 1030W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2013072112, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1040W, 20, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 225, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
1THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1228 UTC SUN JUL 21 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982013) 20130721 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130721 1200 130722 0000 130722 1200 130723 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.4N 104.0W 11.0N 106.0W 11.7N 107.9W 12.4N 109.9W
BAMD 10.4N 104.0W 10.6N 105.9W 10.9N 108.0W 11.4N 110.2W
BAMM 10.4N 104.0W 10.7N 106.0W 11.0N 108.2W 11.4N 110.4W
LBAR 10.4N 104.0W 10.7N 106.4W 11.1N 109.3W 11.8N 112.7W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 43KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130723 1200 130724 1200 130725 1200 130726 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 111.9W 14.0N 116.0W 15.5N 120.6W 17.6N 127.0W
BAMD 11.9N 112.3W 13.2N 116.4W 14.4N 120.6W 16.3N 125.8W
BAMM 11.8N 112.5W 12.7N 116.4W 14.1N 120.6W 16.2N 126.2W
LBAR 12.5N 116.3W 14.6N 123.3W 16.5N 128.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 66KTS 76KTS 81KTS
DSHP 53KTS 66KTS 76KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.4N LONCUR = 104.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 102.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 100.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

SSD Floater.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[supercane4867]

GFS brings it over Hawaii as a TS, most likely will die out before then

[Yellow Evan]

I've been tracking models for this system for a while. I think it has a chance.

[Kingarabian]

HMMM. I'm going to be watching the GFS closely. It's very rare to have a model predicting anything reaching Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

Euro showing the TD or remnants of Flossie approaching Hawaii.

Isn't it weird that the last Flossie we had in 2007... REALLY threatened Hawaii?

[Yellow Evan]

Euro showing the TD or remnants of Flossie approaching Hawaii.

Isn't it weird that the last Flossie we had in 2007... REALLY threatened Hawaii?

I thought I was the only one that noticed that.

[Stangfriik]

hmm I'll have to follow this as my ex and our daughter are flying out to Hawaii tomorrow until Sunday

[cycloneye]

hmm I'll have to follow this as my ex and our daughter are flying out to Hawaii tomorrow until Sunday

You will have all the information you need to know about this system and if it tracks close to Hawaii. I say they have a safe travel.

[Yellow Evan]

Based on 0z GFS, it will likely pass close to Hawaii, but not till around August 1, so your vacation should be fine, though things could change. Have fun though!

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED DURING THE DAY...AND CONTINUED SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS over Hawaii as a weak TS or a TD:

[cycloneye]

The 00z guidance.

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0053 UTC MON JUL 22 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982013) 20130722 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130722 0000 130722 1200 130723 0000 130723 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.4N 106.1W 11.2N 108.1W 11.9N 110.1W 12.5N 112.0W
BAMD 10.4N 106.1W 10.5N 108.3W 10.8N 110.4W 11.3N 112.4W
BAMM 10.4N 106.1W 10.6N 108.3W 11.0N 110.6W 11.5N 112.7W
LBAR 10.4N 106.1W 10.5N 108.6W 11.1N 111.9W 11.8N 115.5W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130724 0000 130725 0000 130726 0000 130727 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 114.0W 14.6N 118.1W 16.5N 123.6W 18.9N 130.2W
BAMD 11.9N 114.4W 13.3N 118.0W 15.1N 122.2W 17.8N 127.6W
BAMM 12.0N 114.7W 13.5N 118.4W 15.5N 123.1W 18.2N 129.4W
LBAR 12.8N 119.2W 15.0N 125.9W 16.8N 131.1W 16.7N 131.1W
SHIP 50KTS 65KTS 76KTS 74KTS
DSHP 50KTS 65KTS 76KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.4N LONCUR = 106.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 104.0W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 102.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 325NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS over Hawaii as a weak TS or a TD:

IIRC 0z GFS IIRC had the storm degenerating into a post-tropical low before arriving in Hawaii.

[Extratropical94]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

[Kingarabian]

0z Euro has the remnants of Flossie over Hawaii in 216Hrs.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 20%.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN