CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

"First direct hit in 20 years" is plain truth, nothing really inaccurate by it

True, if it remains a TS. If it drops to TD, does it qualify as a 'direct hit'? That was one of the big questions last year in NJ and NY. Did they get hit by a hurricane or not? We all know how devastating it was, whatever they got, but it really isn't in the books as a hurricane strike.


A TD is a big storm for sure, but will it be in the books as a direct strike or will they go longer than 20 years?

Of course. A TD is a tropical cyclone after all.

[Yellow Evan]

http://www.islandsir.com/webcam/

Webcam almost near the LLC.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA31 PHFO 292358
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
200 PM HST MON JUL 29 2013

...FLOSSIE WEAKENING NEAR MAUI...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 155.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*HAWAII COUNTY
*MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
*OAHU
*KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST IN
HONOLULU.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 155.5 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...96 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF OAHU THIS EVENING AND
KAUAI COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE BIG ISLAND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAUI COUNTY...WITH HEAVY RAIN SPREADING TO OAHU
OVERNIGHT. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE BIG ISLAND WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. OVER THE REST OF THE STATE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURF...DANGEROUSLY HIGH SURF IS AFFECTING EAST FACING SHORES OF MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND. LARGE SURF WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TO THE REST OF
THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE LARGE SURF
MAY CAUSE COASTAL ROAD CLOSURES...EVEN BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Kingarabian]

30/0000 UTC 21.0N 155.6W T2.0/2.0 FLOSSIE -- Central Pacific

[cycloneye]

Down to TD.

EP, 06, 2013073000, , BEST, 0, 210N, 1557W, 30, 1002, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 125, 120, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FLOSSIE, S,

[Yellow Evan]

Down to TD.

EP, 06, 2013073000, , BEST, 0, 210N, 1557W, 30, 1002, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 125, 120, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FLOSSIE, S,

Places it just offshore Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting decision because convection is firing and expanding.

[Kingarabian]

Cold tops forming?

[Blown Away]

Kingarabian, what's it like outside now?

[galaxy401]

All the convection is south of the center so that means more rain for Hawaii...

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian, what's it like outside now?

I'm on the Island of Oahu so we are third in line. Maui is nearing landfall.

Maui:


Big Island of Hawaii:

[Yellow Evan]

Appears to be an hour away from the first Hawaii landfall since 1993. Right now, according to the NHc longitude/latitude calculator, it's 19 miles offshore.

[tolakram]

Circulation really torn up by the big island. Looks like a lot of rain after all.

Saved Loop

[jaguarjace]

Closer view of the Big Island.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/kilauea/loop-rgb.html
Please note that this loop will require java

[tolakram]

Saved Radar Loop

[Yellow Evan]

When do you all think Flossie will make landfall?

[AFWeather]

Did not expect this new convection to form. Thought she was finished! 43KT at 2500 feet. I don't think the downgrade to TD should happen at this update, but seems they've already made up their minds. It's still SE of the center which seems to be a trend. Maui is about to get some gusty winds and rain.

[Kingarabian]

They could always retract. The NHC did a few times with Dorian.

[Yellow Evan]

They could always retract. The NHC did a few times with Dorian.

I can't see the CPHC doing that though.

[Kingarabian]

Raw ADT T numbers are at 2.9.

Deep convection is building over the center.