CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Raw ADT T numbers are at 2.9.

Deep convection is building over the center.

I think it may or may not be partially due to land interaction with the 10K ft + terrain of the big Island.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Any cams out of Maui? What's it like there right now?

[Yellow Evan]

Any cams out of Maui? What's it like there right now?

http://www.islandsir.com/webcam/

http://www.seehawaiilive.com/maui/maui-resorts

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression FLOSSIE Advisory Number 21
Issued at 500 PM HST MON JUL 29 2013
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 21.3N 156.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NW OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 35 MPH...55 KM/H
Present movement: WNW or 290 degrees AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

[Yellow Evan]

Seems to have by the skin of its teeth avoided Maui. Heading for Ohau tomorrow likely, though track is not out yet.

[cycloneye]

+0



FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
438 PM HST MON JUL 29 2013

HIC009-300530-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FA.Y.0118.130730T0238Z-130730T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MAUI HI-
438 PM HST MON JUL 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ISLAND OF MAUI IN MAUI COUNTY

* UNTIL 730 PM HST

* AT 422 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN MOVING ONSHORE NEAR HANA
AND DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPE OF HALEAKALA WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THE AREA OF RAINFALL WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 MILES PER HOUR AND WILL SHIFT FROM EAST MAUI
TO CENTRAL MAUI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HANA...KIPAHULU...KAUPO...KEANAE...NAHIKU...HAIKU. ..
ULUPALAKUA...KIHEI...KULA...PAIA...KAHULUI AND ALONG THE HANA
HIGHWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS...DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING.

RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE
TO PONDING...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR BRAKING ACTION.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MAUI COUNTY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 730 PM HST IF HEAVY RAIN
PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2096 15649 2098 15624 2076 15595 2060 15609
2057 15650

$$


KODAMA

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
500 PM HST MON JUL 29 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE REMAINS
EXPOSED AND IS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS DEFINED. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE IS NO
LONGER A TROPICAL STORM AND IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A DEPRESSION.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IMPACT THE SYSTEM. FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A DEPRESSION THROUGH 24 HOURS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
36 TO 48 HOURS.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH MOST MODELS
INDICATING A WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE RECENT MOVEMENT OF FLOSSIE.
THIS TRACK WILL HAVE FLOSSIE PASSING BY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 21.3N 156.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 22.1N 158.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 23.0N 162.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 23.5N 165.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0000Z 24.0N 168.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Kingarabian]

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.7 2.0 3.1

[Yellow Evan]

Appears that it won't technically make landfall. But Hawaii likely sustained a direct hit from Tropical Storm Flossie.

[Kingarabian]

Code: Select all

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                1.8 /1011.0mb/ 28.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                1.8     2.1     3.4

[AFWeather]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
615 PM HST MON JUL 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS
PAILOLO CHANNEL
MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS

* UNTIL 815 PM HST

* AT 613 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS 6 NM NORTH OF HO'OKIPA BEACH
PARK...OR ABOUT 11 NM NORTHEAST OF KAHULUI...MOVING WEST AT 15
KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER...STAY BELOW DECK. IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 2114 15631 2096 15631 2098 15655 2103 15660
2099 15667 2101 15685 2107 15684 2108 15679
2114 15673 2117 15676 2118 15683 2130 15681
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 086DEG 13KT 2104 15640

$$

LAU

[Yellow Evan]

Playing around with google and the NHC longitude/latitude thingy, it came 15 miles from land. Closer than Kenneth 05 ever came.

[Stormtrackerjoe]

Based on radar it looks like the center is between Oahu and Molokai... Maui is getting hammered with 4 inch per hour rainfall rates

[Stormtrackerjoe]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[AFWeather]

41KT gust reported at Kahului in Maui a little while ago.

[Kingarabian]

41KT gust reported at Kahului in Maui a little while ago.

Chances that the CPHC upgrades this to a t storm again?

[supercane4867]

Pressure dropping on Maui

[Stormtrackerjoe]

41KT gust reported at Kahului in Maui a little while ago.

Chances that the CPHC upgrades this to a t storm again?

Should never have been downgraded in my opinion. There is a huge tstorm cluster I would expect to rotate into Oahu in a few hours.

[Kingarabian]

41KT gust reported at Kahului in Maui a little while ago.

Chances that the CPHC upgrades this to a t storm again?

Should never have been downgraded in my opinion. There is a huge tstorm cluster I would expect to rotate into Oahu in a few hours.

They said they downgraded it because of it's look and satellite estimates. The truth is, at 11AM it looked worse and they maintained it as a storm.

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Storm Flossie created lightning strikes off the coast of Waiehu, Maui this afternoon.