ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

You don't get such a vigorous tropical wave along the African coast on July 22nd in a normal hurricane season. This is a good sign of a active Cape Verde season come August regardless of how much this develops if it does.

Good point Cycloneye. I can't remember the last time we had an invest declared so close to the African Coastline in July.

Should be active out there in the Atlantic one month from now if not sooner.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone appears to be improving

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... wm7shr.GIF

[TheStormExpert]

You don't get such a vigorous tropical wave along the African coast on July 22nd in a normal hurricane season. This is a good sign of a active Cape Verde season come August regardless of how much this develops if it does.

Good point Cycloneye. I can't remember the last time we had an invest declared so close to the African Coastline in July.

Should be active out there in the Atlantic one month from now if not sooner.

What about Bertha from 2008? That formed pretty quickly in early July.

[GCANE]

Still maintaining a good population of overshooting tops.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/provi ... _image.png

[cycloneye]

Maybe 98L analog is weak TS Florence of last year?

[CrazyC83]

Maybe 98L analog is weak TS Florence of last year?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

That seems quite reasonable. I would be shocked if any storm out there lasts very long or strengthens significantly.

[blp]

The 12z CMC actually develops this now and keeps it alive throughout its run and finally recurves out to sea.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013072212/gem_mslp_pcpn_atl.html

[gatorcane]

120 Hour CMC position:

[Gustywind]

Now first appearence on SSD Dvorak classification...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/1745 UTC 12.4N 21.0W TOO WEAK 98L

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Ensembles.

[Gustywind]

2 PM discussion.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N21W TO 08N22W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 15W-
25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AXIS.

[Weatherboy1]

That would be pretty surprising to see a system all the way up at 15-16N by 30-35W not end up recurving into the open ocean. Usually the ones that make it all the way across and threaten the islands and/or the US don't make it that far north, that far east. But at least the GFS isn't buying a recurve scenario this far out. We will see.

[cycloneye]

Closeup ASCAT shows it almost if not all of circulation closed.

[gatorcane]

This invest is looking rather good with cloud tops "fanning" on the southern side of the low. Might make a decent run at becoming a T.S. before conditions deteriorate.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF sends the invest on a more WNW instead of W course for the next 3 days and weakens it by day 3. Here is the position 3 days from now:(roughly 20N, 40W)

[cycloneye]

SSD Floater is up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[NDG]

I see that now more models are coming aboard with the GFS with developing 98L, at least for the short term.
Hail to the GFS!!!!
All those experts that were dismissing the GFS the last couple of days saying that it had convective feedback problems probably do not know what to say now. I could see calling it convective feedback problems in a model's medium to long range forecast but in its short term and from a very reliable model like the GFS is unheard of.

[sunnyday]

Another one to go poof? Time will tell.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

98L Computer Models

[RL3AO]

If it doesn't develop in the next day or two, I really don't see it doing much until it moves into the Caribbean/Western Atlantic.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.