ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[Florida1118]

Wow! This came out nowhere, the NHC isn't even mentioning it in TWO so I'd say development chances are probably slim.

The TWO hasnt even come out yet; they activated the invest between TWO's. Wait until the 2pm.

[TheStormExpert]

For those who might be thinking that it's too far north to develop, I'd like to point out a storm ten years and ten days ago that developed at 30.8N. It was expected to remain a tropical depression, but it became Hurricane Danny.

After the past 2 seasons I don't think anythings too far north to develop in the Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

Wow! This came out nowhere, the NHC isn't even mentioning it in TWO so I'd say development chances are probably slim.

The TWO hasnt even come out yet; they activated the invest between TWO's. Wait until the 2pm.

Couldn't they always do a Special TWO?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Is this the subtropical low someone mentioned a few days back that the CMC was picking up?

yup

[Florida1118]

Wow! This came out nowhere, the NHC isn't even mentioning it in TWO so I'd say development chances are probably slim.

The TWO hasnt even come out yet; they activated the invest between TWO's. Wait until the 2pm.

Couldn't they always do a Special TWO?

They could, but since the scheduled TWO is coming out in less than an hour, and 99L doesnt pose a threat at the moment, just issuing the normal one makes more sense.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

:uarrow: I agree hurricaneman. It is already far enough north and is already approaching the western edge of the ridge. this should move NW and then NW-N very soon and threaten the Canadian maritimes possibly in a few days.

I think it'll be more of a Newfoundland storm, but one can never be sure.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer -
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Florida1118]

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Hammy]

looks like they only went with 20% to start off, though things could change pretty quickly as the day goes on.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 99, 2013072418, , BEST, 0, 308N, 567W, 20, 1016, DB

[cycloneye]

18z guidance.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1838 UTC WED JUL 24 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992013) 20130724 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130724 1800 130725 0600 130725 1800 130726 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.8N 56.7W 31.9N 58.8W 33.4N 61.1W 35.6N 63.6W
BAMD 30.8N 56.7W 32.0N 59.1W 33.3N 61.4W 34.8N 63.5W
BAMM 30.8N 56.7W 31.9N 59.0W 33.3N 61.4W 35.2N 63.8W
LBAR 30.8N 56.7W 32.1N 58.4W 34.1N 59.9W 36.7N 61.3W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130726 1800 130727 1800 130728 1800 130729 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 38.4N 66.2W 43.6N 67.3W 46.9N 64.5W 49.6N 65.4W
BAMD 37.0N 65.5W 42.9N 64.7W 45.8N 52.3W 43.2N 35.3W
BAMM 37.8N 66.3W 43.4N 66.9W 47.0N 59.7W 44.8N 53.5W
LBAR 39.6N 61.7W 45.8N 56.5W 44.0N 41.2W 41.5N 27.9W
SHIP 46KTS 56KTS 53KTS 38KTS
DSHP 46KTS 56KTS 38KTS 23KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.8N LONCUR = 56.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 30.2N LONM12 = 55.0W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 29.8N LONM24 = 54.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1016MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[tailgater]

I, also saw this earlier and almost started a new topic on it, but it looked pretty pitiful last nite. CMC really developed it and then built the ridge back in to steer Dorain westward.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 20%.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...
AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT REACHES COLD
WATER IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 99, 2013072500, , BEST, 0, 320N, 578W, 20, 1017, DB

[Hurricaneman]

I cant see this one doing much, but I've seen weirder thing happen

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CrazyC83]

Still no Dvorak runs at all.

[CrazyC83]

Could be an issue this weekend for Atlantic Canada perhaps?

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC THU JUL 25 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992013) 20130725 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130725 0000 130725 1200 130726 0000 130726 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.0N 57.8W 33.7N 59.6W 36.1N 61.3W 39.2N 62.3W
BAMD 32.0N 57.8W 33.9N 59.8W 36.0N 61.3W 38.6N 61.9W
BAMM 32.0N 57.8W 34.0N 59.6W 36.5N 60.7W 39.7N 60.9W
LBAR 32.0N 57.8W 34.1N 59.6W 36.7N 60.8W 40.0N 61.0W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130727 0000 130728 0000 130729 0000 130730 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 42.9N 62.6W 48.6N 59.5W 49.9N 54.4W 48.4N 50.8W
BAMD 41.7N 61.3W 46.6N 55.4W 46.3N 43.7W 44.9N 28.7W
BAMM 43.3N 59.8W 47.7N 52.7W 47.0N 41.1W 46.0N 26.3W
LBAR 43.4N 59.7W 46.5N 49.2W 41.0N 35.5W 36.5N 33.1W
SHIP 40KTS 41KTS 36KTS 26KTS
DSHP 40KTS 39KTS 34KTS 24KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.0N LONCUR = 57.8W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 30.4N LONM12 = 55.6W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 30.0N LONM24 = 54.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1017MB OUTPRS = 1019MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Kingarabian]

1017MB? Dang.

[CrazyC83]

1017MB? Dang.

It's in the middle of a 1030+ ridge.

[RL3AO]

I want to see a TS with pressure >1014.