WPAC: JEBI - Severe Tropical Storm

[RobWESTPACWX]

My video update on Jolina for now. JMA still expecting a TS tomorrow.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kfky5lrsgsU[/youtube]

[vrif]

TCFA


WTPN21 PGTW 301930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2N 118.6E TO 16.7N 113.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7N 116.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1N
116.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 116.6E, APPROXIMATELY 475NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES. A 301544Z OSCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AND SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND A STRONG SURGE (15-20 KNOTS) IN THE SOUTHWEST
MONSOON THAT IS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
SHIPS OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA SHOW FALLING SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
VALUES AND WINDS THAT RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10
KNOTS) IS COMPLIMENTED BY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW THAT IS BEING ENHANCED
BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED EAST OF TAIWAN. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORABLE AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
311930Z.//



We can also see a small LLCC from the OSCAT from 1544Z

[dhoeze]

nice video again RobWESTPACWX

[vrif]

91W is now upgraded to 09W from JTWC

Edit: JMA upgraded to TS JEBI



WTPQ20 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1309 JEBI (1309) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 14.7N 116.1E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 16.0N 114.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 020000UTC 17.7N 111.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 030000UTC 19.1N 108.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[euro6208]

West Pacific
94W.INVEST
93W.INVEST
09W.NINE



TXPQ23 KNES 302340
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 30/2032Z

C. 14.2N

D. 116.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AFTER MOVING WEST OR LAND AND
DT=2.5 BASED ON 4/10 BANDING. MET=2.0 BASED ON RAPID CURVE. AND PAT=2.0
FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301921Z JUL 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 15.0N 116.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 116.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.4N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.9N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.5N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.6N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.7N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.9N 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 115.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 310000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z
AND 010300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 301921Z JUL 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 301930).//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION LOOSELY
WRAPPING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
LARGE, ALBEIT BROKEN, BANDING FEATURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
THAT SPANS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. A 302151Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGER REVEALS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
AN OVERALL BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LLCC. SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE
AREA CONTINUE TO SHOW FALLING SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE VALUES AND WINDS
THAT RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AS THE LLCC REMAINS FAIRLY AMBIGUOUS IN THE MSI AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 30
KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM
IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KNOTS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED EAST OF TAIWAN. TD 09W
IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND TRACKS
ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE MID TO DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 09W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST
ALONG THIS EXTENSION OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE
STEERING STR IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CHINA. THIS
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE TD 09W TO ACCELERATE MORE
WESTWARD TOWARDS HAINAN ISLAND, MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 48.
GENERAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 48 AS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF ROBUST OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, AND FAVORABLE
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONSTANT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TD 09W
TO REACH A MAX INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48,
INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN ISLAND WITH BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 09W WILL MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN INTO
NORTHERN VIETNAM. THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THIS ROUGH TERRAIN WILL
ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT OF THE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AND THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WHICH
IS CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[vrif]

OSCAT showing strong winds around TS JEBI.

[dexterlabio]

Jebi's area of circulation is so large. Also lots of convection scattered across PI and SCS.

[senorpepr]

Still plenty of rain falling on Luzon tonight. Jebi is expected to spread more rain to saturated Hainan Province and northern Vietnam.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cox7XBZQaaM[/youtube]

[mrbagyo]

convection is building up very near the LLCC, maybe it's starting to build it's CDO


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Jebi's area of circulation is so large. Also lots of convection scattered across PI and SCS.

yeah.. it's so large.. and still expanding it's circulation with the help of the monsoon surge and 93w...

[vrif]

Latest OSCAT pass showing lots of convection on the western portion of the LLCC.

[vrif]

Looking at the latest ASCAT pass, JEBI looks like it is rounding into form.

[vrif]

Northward movement of the track continues as the subtropical ridge retreats.


WTPQ30 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 1309 JEBI (1309)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 010600 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORTHWEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN HOURS.
TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[vrif]

OSCAT 0449Z pass.

[RobWESTPACWX]

OSCAT 0449Z pass.

http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/3586/nhe8.png

Such a massive wind field on this one.

Even as far North East as Taiwan we have Heavy Rain ADV in effect.

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/fifows/index.htm?

[RobWESTPACWX]

4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN HOURS.
TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

Seems a little off, they say that yet they only have it making it to 45kts sustained in the forecast, shy of a STS still. I guess they are thinking maaayyyybe? hehe.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Strong Wind Signal 3 here in Hong Kong now, large wind field indeed. Highest gust near my flat between 70 - 80km/h as a squall passed through.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Wew! I am running some video next hour of some flooding in Thailand as well I think could be called indirectly associated with Jebi due to the monsoonal flow. Crazy Stuff.

Itll be on 20m after the hour.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/

[RobWESTPACWX]

Image from my Cast on NHK. Incredible scenes from Northern Thailand.

[senorpepr]

Again, another update on Jebi... storm warnings starting to be posted for portions of China and Vietnam:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4k3_5UIco04[/youtube]