CPAC: GIL - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

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[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

First model plots.

WHXX01 KMIA 300019
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0019 UTC TUE JUL 30 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992013) 20130730 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130730 0000 130730 1200 130731 0000 130731 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.6N 110.4W 11.7N 112.7W 12.6N 114.8W 13.3N 117.0W
BAMD 10.6N 110.4W 11.3N 112.5W 12.0N 114.6W 12.5N 116.4W
BAMM 10.6N 110.4W 11.4N 112.7W 12.2N 114.8W 12.8N 116.8W
LBAR 10.6N 110.4W 11.2N 112.6W 12.2N 115.3W 13.0N 118.2W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 37KTS 47KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 37KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130801 0000 130802 0000 130803 0000 130804 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 119.3W 14.5N 123.8W 14.7N 127.4W 15.0N 130.7W
BAMD 12.9N 118.2W 13.6N 121.0W 14.1N 122.4W 14.9N 123.2W
BAMM 13.5N 118.7W 14.6N 121.8W 15.2N 123.9W 15.9N 125.4W
LBAR 13.9N 121.2W 15.3N 126.6W 15.6N 130.8W 12.7N 133.1W
SHIP 57KTS 65KTS 61KTS 62KTS
DSHP 57KTS 65KTS 61KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 110.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 109.2W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 108.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Yellow Evan]

Appears to be sorta like Flossie in path. Just will be further south and remain away from Hawaii. I'm expecting this to form in two days and peak as a minimal hurricane.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Kingarabian]

Appears to be sorta like Flossie in path. Just will be further south and remain away from Hawaii. I'm expecting this to form in two days and peak as a minimal hurricane.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

GFS has a stronger system going over Hawaii and the Euro keeps it weak and has it going well south of Hawaii.

Edit: Just saw the 0z GFS. Keeps it a weak storm sending it south of Hawaii.

Edit2: 0z ECMWF has a stronger Gil than the GFS and has it on a similar track of Flossie's. Though it dies right after 140W.

[Yellow Evan]

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Extratropical94]

TD Seven-E in a few minutes!

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[Yellow Evan]

Wow, that was quick.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 301443
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SMALL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE ABOUT 700 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA QUICKLY BECAME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND
IT APPEARS THAT IT HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT 25 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0
FROM TAFB AND T1.0 FROM SAB.

THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...GIVING THE CYCLONE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/14 KT. THE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY RATHER STRONG FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AND
THEN WEAKEN BEGINNING IN 72 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS ALSO FORECAST
TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE IT TO DECELERATE BUT MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY BETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODEL
IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER DYNAMICAL
MODELS DURING THE FIRST 4 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SINCE
CYCLONES USUALLY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ESCAPING FROM THE ITCZ...THE
NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF AND IS JUST A LITTLE
SOUTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE FOR MOST FORECAST TIME
PERIODS.

EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ...WHICH OFTEN INHIBITS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
IS LIGHT...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 29C...AND THERE IS
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE INTENSITY MODELS ALL INDICATE
STRENGTHENING...AND IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
IS INDICATING A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN WINDS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES STEADY
STRENGTHENING...WITH THE SYSTEM HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 12.2N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 12.9N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 13.6N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 14.2N 121.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 14.8N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 15.7N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 16.5N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 17.0N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[ninel conde]

really impressive stuff going on in the east pac. you wouldnt expect in a non el nino year for these systems to be following an almost exact path to hawaii and remaining intact doing so.

[Ntxw]

The EPAC has been doing this for several years, when something gets going it will at least make it to hurricane status and look nice. I too think this will make it as minimal hurricane at least. No Nino but north Pacific has warm SST's.

[Dave C]

That area east of the TD looks much better than 10%. I just looped the visable and it looks pretty organized!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks like a surprise tropical depression east of Seven-E. GFS initialization and microwave imagery suggests a closed circulation. Deep, organized convection is obvious on satellite imagery. Winds are a bit lacking though. Overall, probably deserves much higher than 10%.

[Kingarabian]

That was really quick. Wow.

[Kingarabian]

This is reminding me of a very similar setup in 2009. Felicia and Enrique.

[Yellow Evan]

really impressive stuff going on in the east pac. you wouldnt expect in a non el nino year for these systems to be following an almost exact path to hawaii and remaining intact doing so.

I doubt the storm will remain intact to Hawaii. Flossie was a once every PDO cold phase storm.

[Yellow Evan]

This is reminding me of a very similar setup in 2009. Felicia and Enrique.

I think these two storms are closer than Felicia and Enrique.

[Kingarabian]

really impressive stuff going on in the east pac. you wouldnt expect in a non el nino year for these systems to be following an almost exact path to hawaii and remaining intact doing so.

I doubt the storm will remain intact to Hawaii. Flossie was a once every PDO cold phase storm.

Hey man, these EPAC systems are starting to prove to the world that cold SST's don't mean a thing. The only thing that did Flossie in was that the shear finally kicked in and allowed that dry substance to simmer down Flossie.

So I think for Gil or Henriette the main problem will be shear.

[Kingarabian]

This is reminding me of a very similar setup in 2009. Felicia and Enrique.

I think these two storms are closer than Felicia and Enrique.

Yeah. But the question is, which one will win? One of them will have to go. Everyone thought Enrique would eat Felicia for lunch but look what happened.