EPAC: HENRIETTE - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307301840
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013073018, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902013
EP, 90, 2013073018, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1087W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Kingarabian]

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Microwave imagery shows it's better organized and I'm pretty sure it will be upped from 10% soon.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, did not expect this to be declared. EPAC on fire!

[cycloneye]

First plots.

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1858 UTC TUE JUL 30 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902013) 20130730 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130730 1800 130731 0600 130731 1800 130801 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.4N 108.5W 12.1N 110.6W 12.7N 112.8W 13.5N 114.9W
BAMD 11.4N 108.5W 12.1N 110.8W 12.6N 112.7W 13.0N 114.4W
BAMM 11.4N 108.5W 12.2N 111.0W 12.9N 113.2W 13.8N 115.0W
LBAR 11.4N 108.5W 12.2N 111.2W 12.8N 114.1W 13.5N 117.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130801 1800 130802 1800 130803 1800 130804 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 117.1W 16.4N 121.3W 17.8N 126.0W 18.1N 131.7W
BAMD 13.3N 115.7W 13.8N 117.6W 14.2N 119.1W 14.4N 121.4W
BAMM 14.6N 116.6W 16.4N 119.3W 18.1N 122.4W 19.6N 126.7W
LBAR 13.9N 119.7W 14.9N 124.1W 15.1N 126.8W 15.0N 129.4W
SHIP 51KTS 53KTS 41KTS 32KTS
DSHP 51KTS 53KTS 41KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.4N LONCUR = 108.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 105.9W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 103.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

Wow, did not expect this to be declared. EPAC on fire!

Sure is! 90E is the blob on the right:

[cycloneye]

Maybe too close to TD 7-E to develop into a strong system.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, did not expect this to be declared. EPAC on fire!

Sure is! 90E is the blob on the right:

Looks somewhat close to TD status.

[gatorcane]

Maybe too close to TD 7-E to develop into a strong system.

Maybe but only a 10% chance of development seems very low given how great it looks, maybe even a TD right now

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro develops this. Actually favors it more than Seven-E.

[Yellow Evan]

12z Euro develops this. Actually favors it more than Seven-E.

I think you were right earlier about this being similar to Felicia and Enrique in 2009, actually. I think in the end 99E will lose the battle though.

12z GFS agrees with me.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN-E...LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[gatorcane]

There we have it. NHC really bumps up the development chances

[meriland23]

what are the chances with two storms here hit Hawaii as a hur or TS you think?

[galaxy401]

Reminds me of Enrique and Felicia in 2009. Both developed close together but one became the dominant storm.

[Yellow Evan]

what are the chances with two storms here hit Hawaii as a hur or TS you think?

0% IMO.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Surprised this hasn't been classified as a tropical depression yet. SAB is at T1.5.

[Kingarabian]

TropicalAnalystwx13, I would assume they will issue a special product soon...

[Kingarabian]

[Extratropical94]

TCFA:

WTPN21 PHNC 302130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 107.0W TO 14.7N 114.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 108.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 10.8N
107.2W, IS NOW LOCATED AT 11.4N 108.5W, APPROXIMATELY 460NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
BROKEN FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 301517Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC AND IN THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
312030Z.//
NNNN

[Caribwxgirl]

It's very interesting over here.