WPAC: MANGKHUT - Tropical Storm

[cycloneye]

5.0N-152.5W.

Saved image.



Updating image.

[Typhoon Hunter]

GFS as well as CMC developing this, I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes the next major player especially since it'll be transiting the Philippines Sea!

[dexterlabio]

Wow this is the Western Pacific that I know. It's interesting to note that we are all seeing this uptick without help from the MJO, which is forecast to be incoherent for another week or two.

This invest needs some attention....doesn't look good for Manila and Bicol region, especially Albay which is experiencing a large-scale power outage. To be in the midst of a storm without power and communication is the worst scenario ever.....

[RobWESTPACWX]

I think this could be a major problem, if this hits the PI as a TS or even a STS it could drop heavy amounts of rainfall on these area that just received heavy rainfall from Jebi.

Here is a look at what GFS is calling for Saturday.

[RL3AO]

GFS is consistently developing a storm over the islands.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Starting to get the look!



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[RobWESTPACWX]

JT put it back up to a LOW AREA

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.7N 134.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD TURNING AROUND AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
CYCLONE DEVELOPING FROM THIS AREA IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[stormstrike]

does not look promising..

[vrif]

The OSCAT 1440Z pass. It looks like it will be another JEBI and intensifies when it reaches the SCS.

[vrif]

JMA upgraded 94W to a TD earlier.

WWJP25 RJTD 030600
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 07N 128E WNW 10 KT.



OSCAT 0311Z pass


edit: Included JTWC. They still peg 94W chances for development as 'Low'.

ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZAUG2013//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZAUG2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.7N
134.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST
OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES AN AREA OF BROAD TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 030314Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS
ALSO DEPICTS THE BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 10 KNOT WIND BARBS NEAR THE
LLCC AND 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK CYCLONE
DEVELOPING FROM THIS AREA IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[vrif]

Downgraded back to a LPA

WWJP25 RJTD 031200
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 08N 130E WNW 10 KT.

[vrif]

ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZAUG2013//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 09W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 101.0E, HAS DISSIPATED OVER LAND AND IS NO LONGER
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N
129.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 121.9E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST
OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTREMELY BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
DEVELOPING AND THE LLCC STILL CONSOLIDATING, THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICES EXISTS AT THIS TIME. A 040123Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A WEAK CYCLONE
DEVELOPING FROM THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[vrif]

OSCAT 08040359Z pass.

[vrif]

Upgraded back to a TD.

WTPQ30 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TD LOCATED AT 14.3N 109.6E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 050000 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE.
TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

WTPQ20 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 10.8N 118.0E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 12.5N 116.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[euro6208]

20130805 0232 10.5 -117.3 T1.0/1.0 94W 94W

[vrif]

ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZAUG2013//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2N
121.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 118.5E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
POORLY DEFINED, ALBEIT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICES EXISTS
AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND CONSOLIDATE. A 050027Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BEGINNINGS OF FRAGMENTED BANDING
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

now locally named as TD "Kiko" by PAGASA. .

[senorpepr]

All agencies are going with a T1.5 on Dvorak and this looks like yet another round of flooding rains for Hainan and northern Vietnam.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQtVPIC3e9Y[/youtube]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TCFA: JTWC

WTPN21 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 118.3E TO 14.9N 111.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050732Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 117.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N
118.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 117.4E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS IMPROVING, THE MSI
INDICATES THAT SYSTEM IS STILL WEAKLY DEFINED AND MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL
VORTICES COULD BE PRESENT. A 050155Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE DEVELOPING BANDING STRUCTURE ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM. A 050452Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS DEPICTS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE LLCC AND CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 20
TO 25 KNOT WIND BARBS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060900Z.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TCFA: JTWC

WTPN21 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 118.3E TO 14.9N 111.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050732Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 117.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N
118.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 117.4E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS IMPROVING, THE MSI
INDICATES THAT SYSTEM IS STILL WEAKLY DEFINED AND MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL
VORTICES COULD BE PRESENT. A 050155Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE DEVELOPING BANDING STRUCTURE ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM. A 050452Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS DEPICTS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE LLCC AND CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 20
TO 25 KNOT WIND BARBS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060900Z.//
NNNN