WPAC: INVEST 93W

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13.1N-126.6E

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ABPW10 PGTW 312230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/312230ZJUL2013-010600ZAUG2013//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311951ZJUL2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
126.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.5E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 311851Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS A CURVED BAND OF INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WEAK, FRAGMENTED
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A POORLY DEFINED LLCC.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY INDICATED ONLY SHARP TROUGHING;
HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING SOUTH OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL
OVER TAIWAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5N
125.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 121.3E, APPROXIMATELY 297 NM SOUTH
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED MUTLISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
010329Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE
DEVELOPING LLCC AS WELL AS A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. WEAK AND FRAGMENTED BANDING IS ALSO IDENTIFIED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE NORTHWEST
TRACK INTO LUZON STRAIT APPEARS TO BE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
TROPICAL STORM 09W AND MAY RESULT IN THE DISTURBANCE BEING ABSORBED
BY THE LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL OVER TAIWAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[vrif]

93W is showing up on Shantou Radar and going to landfall soon.