CPAC: INVEST 91E

[Kingarabian]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep912013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308020111
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[cycloneye]

The models don't do too much.

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0113 UTC FRI AUG 2 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912013) 20130802 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130802 0000 130802 1200 130803 0000 130803 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 136.1W 12.3N 138.6W 12.7N 140.8W 13.1N 142.8W
BAMD 12.0N 136.1W 12.5N 138.0W 12.9N 139.7W 13.2N 141.0W
BAMM 12.0N 136.1W 12.2N 138.3W 12.4N 140.3W 12.9N 142.2W
LBAR 12.0N 136.1W 12.6N 138.4W 13.5N 140.8W 14.6N 142.9W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130804 0000 130805 0000 130806 0000 130807 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 144.7W 14.6N 148.3W 15.7N 150.9W 16.7N 153.4W
BAMD 13.6N 142.2W 14.5N 143.6W 15.0N 143.8W 14.9N 144.4W
BAMM 13.5N 143.8W 14.5N 145.9W 15.3N 146.8W 15.6N 147.8W
LBAR 15.9N 144.7W 18.5N 147.1W 21.1N 147.8W 23.4N 147.2W
SHIP 30KTS 26KTS 18KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 26KTS 18KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 136.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 134.0W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 130.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Kingarabian]

Props to the GFS for sniffing out all this activity.

[supercane4867]

It's about to hit a wall of shear

[Yellow Evan]

It's gonna be one of those invests that don't form IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Yellow Evan]

2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY POORLY
ORGANIZED...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Yellow Evan]

283
ACPN50 PHFO 031152
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SAT AUG 3 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OBSERVED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

[cycloneye]

CPHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep912013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308032239
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Yellow Evan]

down to near 0%, so no surprise.