ATL: ERIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Update

Michael Lowry, Hurricane Specialist, The Weather Channel

Aug 17, 2013 5:14 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

- Tracking Erin in the Atlantic.

ERIN

Thunderstorms refired over Erin Friday evening and the system has been upgraded once again to a tropical storm. Strengthening is not forecast as strong upper level winds and dry air keep the system in check.

[Gustywind]

SSD recap for TS Erin.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

17/1145 UTC 19.5N 35.2W T1.5/1.5 ERIN
17/0545 UTC 18.6N 35.0W T1.0/1.0 ERIN
16/2345 UTC 18.2N 33.6W T1.0/1.0 ERIN
16/1800 UTC 17.4N 32.8W TOO WEAK ERIN
16/1145 UTC 16.7N 31.4W T1.0/1.5 ERIN
16/0545 UTC 16.0N 30.0W T1.5/2.0 ERIN
15/2345 UTC 15.3N 27.9W T1.5/2.0 ERIN
15/1745 UTC 14.9N 26.7W T2.0/2.0 ERIN
15/1145 UTC 14.5N 25.8W T2.0/2.0 ERIN
15/0545 UTC 14.2N 24.6W T1.5/1.5 05L
14/2345 UTC 13.8N 22.4W T1.0/1.0 93L
14/1745 UTC 13.1N 21.8W T1.0/1.0 93L
14/1200 UTC 12.5N 20.8W TOO WEAK 93L

[CrazyC83]

I'd say the peak intensity was 45 kt at 15/1800, based on the fact that ship reported 40 kt when Erin was "too weak" for Dvorak estimates...

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 171431
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

...ERIN REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 35.7W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[Ntxw]

Still watchin Erin with half an eye open.

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to TD.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

...ERIN WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 37.7W
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[Cyclenall]

Did anyone happen to see Erin Burnett on CNN two nights ago (Thursday)? They did a segment on TS Erin and let me tell you, it was a doozy. The whole time this was me when watching it:



They said that all the storms that have formed near Africa like this have become "big storms for the US." One of the opening lines for the segment was that its unusual for storms to form that far east (uh no?) and should we be concerned...wow. Chad Myers read a list of hurricanes that hit the US and said they all formed off Africa or near the eastern Atlantic...um ok Chad you do realize 99% of big hurricanes are TWs that come off Africa right? Seriously, what a joke. Then Erin Burnett who shares the name Erin joked how she hoped this wouldn't be one to cause destruction and be retired because she doesn't want her name retired...at this point Chad should have faithfully stepped in and admitted that this had less than a 0.5% of even making it to the US and that it was forecast to weaken in the central Atlantic...instead he took that weakening part and talked about Hurricane Andrew and how the two were similar in that aspect . Grasping for straws for hype is the worst.

[Ntxw]

CNN also did an article on how 92L could "explode" in the gulf and was headlined for awhile. That was also irresponsible imo. No credible source (NHC or other forecasting entity) gave any notion that was going to happen. Media these days...

Anyway for the most part I think the worst of Erin was several days ago nothing but a puff of cigar really left on satellite right now.

[gatorcane]

Erin vis loop shows it is moving due west, or even just a little south of due west now being steered by low-level flow. Void of convection but still has a nice spin:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[pgoss11]

It's suppose to deteriorate to a remnant low in the next day or two. I guess the hostile Atlantic continues to take it's toll on developing storms. Yawn....

[Riptide]

12z GFS shows Erin's low level center decoupling and heading SW to merge with 20L pouch near the Eastern Carribean. That would greatly increase the chances of something substantial developing.

[Hurricaneman]

12z GFS shows Erin's low level center decoupling and heading SW to merge with 20L pouch near the Eastern Carribean. That would greatly increase the chances of something substantial developing.

if this should happen would it still be Erin or would it be like the 2005 td10\Katrina situation where the disturbance split and became a new entity, if such a situation happens this could be one of those tough calls

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurricaneBelle]

We're about to see the end of an Erin.

[HurricaneBelle]

12z GFS shows Erin's low level center decoupling and heading SW to merge with 20L pouch near the Eastern Carribean. That would greatly increase the chances of something substantial developing.

if this should happen would it still be Erin or would it be like the 2005 td10\Katrina situation where the disturbance split and became a new entity, if such a situation happens this could be one of those tough calls

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Let's hope this doesn't happen, so we can be spared dozens of posts on whether it should be called Erin or not.

[Riptide]

12z GFS shows Erin's low level center decoupling and heading SW to merge with 20L pouch near the Eastern Carribean. That would greatly increase the chances of something substantial developing.

if this should happen would it still be Erin or would it be like the 2005 td10\Katrina situation where the disturbance split and became a new entity, if such a situation happens this could be one of those tough calls

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Let's hope this doesn't happen, so we can be spared dozens of posts on whether it should be called Erin or not.

Mother nature does not care about names and will do whatever she wants to do. Hopefully this Erin or 94L takes center stage because the Atlantic Basin is a dead horse right now.

[ninel conde]

12z GFS shows Erin's low level center decoupling and heading SW to merge with 20L pouch near the Eastern Carribean. That would greatly increase the chances of something substantial developing.

does the GFS show something impressive developing?

[Hurricaneman]

12z GFS shows Erin's low level center decoupling and heading SW to merge with 20L pouch near the Eastern Carribean. That would greatly increase the chances of something substantial developing.

does the GFS show something impressive developing?

Nothing impressive with the models so no it wouldnt cause the chance of redevelopment to go up but since the MJO will be in phase 1 which is favorable to about the east coast and no farther east this may have to be watched just in case of a surprise development especially since the GFS has started to latch on to this even though weakly

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

Latest saved image. Looking skeletal this afternoon:

[gatorcane]

Looking at the present movement of this system today which looks WSW, we should still keep an eye on Erin as it looks like it will be steered by the low-level flow for the next several days and not recurve even losing a little latitude as well.

As we are moving into late August now, these types of remnant systems should be watched closely in case they find more favorable conditions down the road when they get further west.

[HurricaneRyan]

For a skeletal storm, she still looks rather pretty.