ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[ROCK]

someone said they would eat their hat if this came to Texas....LESTER I am calling you out.....lol

[brunota2003]

What was the TS that formed and hit Texas a couple years back? The one that went from full of convection offshore to absolutely nothing in a matter of 4 or 6 hrs?

Tropical Storm Don in 2011. The saddest excuse for a named system many of us have ever seen.

That's the one. Any chance this system could repeat that, since Texas is so dry?

[Bailey1777]

hey rock isnt there a small window so that if it doesnt start nw ward itll get blocked and sent west?

[ROCK]

hey rock isnt there a small window so that if it doesnt start nw ward itll get blocked and sent west?

there has always been a small window with 92L...I still think MX or STX and a slight chance for mid-Texas coast but again no guidance suggests anything more than a weak TD or TS.

[Nikki]

What was the TS that formed and hit Texas a couple years back? The one that went from full of convection offshore to absolutely nothing in a matter of 4 or 6 hrs?

Tropical Storm Don in 2011. The saddest excuse for a named system many of us have ever seen.

That's the one. Any chance this system could repeat that, since Texas is so dry?

I am not a pro, but Texas isn't as dry as we were in 2011....hopefully that would help it not eat Don!

[Portastorm]

What was the TS that formed and hit Texas a couple years back? The one that went from full of convection offshore to absolutely nothing in a matter of 4 or 6 hrs?

Tropical Storm Don in 2011. The saddest excuse for a named system many of us have ever seen.

Portastorm what's your take on the 18z models posted by cycloneye.

I would go back to what wxman57 said a few hours ago ... any track at this point is highly suspect. I mean ... we're still dealing with just a semi-naked low level swirl. I wouldn't trust any model outcome until/if this system gets its act together. Then you can start looking at things like where did the model initialize the system, etc. Until then, I think any hooting and hollering about where 92L may end up is just that ... hooting and hollering.

Hopefully at the very least it will increase moisture values in south Texas and provide a more active seabreeze or more active diurnal convective cycle next week.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensembles are still hinting at 92L possibly organizing a bit more in the Western GOM in 48 to 72hrs.


Forecast for Monday Morning


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[Javlin]

I have been looking at the FIM and it for one has not deviated form the NGOM for a few days now.On 8/13 was TX/LA line to AL/FL line today none of the windshield wiper stuff.I like to see how this model plays out could be one of interest for future reference.

[ROCK]

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

[NDG]

Interesting that the 0z early tropical models were started on the dying LLC moving southward.
In another words, those models are trash, IMO.

[Stormlover2012]

Yeah I was about to say the same thing, intialization was horrible.

[Bailey1777]

hey rock i like that spaghetti....now if we could get a player you know.

[Alyono]

EC ensembles have only about a 50 percent chance of development

[LaBreeze]

hey rock i like that spaghetti....now if we could get a player you know.

Lots of spaghetti, but where's the meatball?

[gatorcane]

Looking back at what the models originally showed what would happen with this invest this weekend in the Mon-Wed timeframe this past week, it's interesting that the ECMWF/UKMET solutions seems to have gotten it right which basically called for no development and the low-level vorticity to head towards the BOC and get stretched out.

On the other hand, the GFS/FIM/CMC did not get the outcome correct which repeatedly called for NW GOM and Northern GOM solutions with a consolidated system heading towards the north. Yes, those models eventually stopped showing this solution but after the ECMWF/UKMET already picked up on that several days earlier.

Levi Cowan did say in his update last Wed. the ECMWF is better at handling the synoptic pattern than the GFS with systems in the Western Caribbean where 92L formed and it looks like that model has proven itself again.

[ROCK]

Looking back at what the models originally showed what would happen with this invest this weekend in the Mon-Wed timeframe this past week, it's interesting that the ECMWF/UKMET solutions seems to have gotten it right which basically called for no development and the low-level vorticity to head towards the BOC and get stretched out.

On the other hand, the GFS/FIM/CMC did not get the outcome correct which repeatedly called for NW GOM and Northern GOM solutions with a consolidated system heading towards the north. Yes, those models eventually stopped showing this solution but after the ECMWF/UKMET already picked up on that several days earlier.

Levi Cowan did say in his update last Wed. the ECMWF is better at handling the synoptic pattern than the GFS with systems in the Western Caribbean where 92L formed and it looks like that model has proven itself again.

agree....its hard to go against the EURO as many NWS METS rely heavily on it....

[ROCK]

Interesting that the 0z early tropical models were started on the dying LLC moving southward.
In another words, those models are trash, IMO.

really, the dying LLC is the only thing keeping 92L alive as seen on this am scans....

[Kingarabian]

I guess that FIM model busted as well.

The NOGAPS and the CMC also busted.

GFS corrected itself and followed the ECMWF.