WPAC: Tropical Storm Trami (12W) (Maring PAGASA)

[Amoygal]

Typhoon day called for Taipei and surrounding area. Hope people stay off the roads and away from water--some areas of northern Taiwan have already received close to 300 mm of rain in the last 24 hours. Big rainmaker here so far.

[phwxenthusiast]

JTWC upgrading to typhoon on their 00z/03z warning... it's pretty clear this thing is intensifying; i just hope JMA upgrades it to a Typhoon before it makes landfall in China...

anyway, taking a stab at using Dvorak (just a beginner so please bear with me), the log 10 spiral would be about 4.5 no? i'm thinking like 1.3 for the curved band??

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[vrif]

I'll post the current JTWC track and intensity here.

[Alyono]

looks as if it will hit the large city of Fuzhou

[xtyphooncyclonex]

MY FORECAST



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

4th typhoon of the season based on 1 min.

[euro6208]

Trami's eye passing north of taipei...

[phwxenthusiast]

lol JMA actually held onto STS status... so disappointed...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 12W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINTAINED A TIGHT WRAP AROUND A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A RADAR COMPOSITE
LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS LOW AT 05 TO 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TY TRAMI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR, PASSING TO THE NORTH OF TAIWAN WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO CHINA. TY 12W HAS PEAKED
INTENSITY AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE AND EVENTUALLY, FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO ITS
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF AVAILABLE
MODEL DATA, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN

PGTW and KNES at 4.5 and CI hovering above 4.5... may god bless east asia...

[RL3AO]

anyway, taking a stab at using Dvorak (just a beginner so please bear with me), the log 10 spiral would be about 4.5 no? i'm thinking like 1.3 for the curved band??

Heres what the NWS guys said at 0232, about an hour after your post.


H. REMARKS...DT OF 4.5 IS BASED ON 1.4 BANDING. MET AND PT ARE 4.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

Pretty good!

[euro6208]

12WTRAMI.70kts-970mb-258N-1212E

[Alyono]

would not be surprised if there is massive flooding in Taiwan

[Amoygal]

Over a foot (324 mm) in Taipei now...over 600 mm in many mountainous areas. Still raining.

[euro6208]

landfall intensity at 75 knots...hope nothing too bad in the area...

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 020
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 25.6N 119.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 119.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 26.2N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 26.4N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.1N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 25.8N 118.9E.
TYPHOON 12W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107 NM WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TIGHTLY WRAPPED
INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 211746Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER DETAILS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS THE EAST COAST OF
CHINA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 12W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TY TRAMI IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN ERODING DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND AND
THEN FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 01C (PEWA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

Shimen dam in northern Taiwan put on an incredible show this morning, never filmed anything like this before, you could feel the ground shaking at times!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFQTDuFecLw[/youtube]