WPAC: INVEST 99W

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WPAC: INVEST 99W

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Aug 14, 2013 8:02 am

Image
19.5N 137E
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:27 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.1N
132.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LLCC WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MSI ALSO
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION EAST OF OKINAWA
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF AN UPPER LOW
POSITIONED NEAR OKINAWA; THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF AN LLCC NORTH OF
24N LATITUDE. A 160243Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS A LINEAR BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED
LLCC. A 160028Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15
TO 20 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND WEAK (LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS) WINDS ELSEWHERE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#3 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:25 pm

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6N
134.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 160859Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LLCC WITH AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LLCC DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 160028Z ASCAT IMAGE
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND WEAK (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) WINDS
ELSEWHERE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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#4 Postby Meow » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:40 pm

JMA becomes insane. :eek:

Image

Image

TD
Issued at 19:25 UTC, 16 August 2013

<Analyses at 16/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N25°10'(25.2°)
E130°40'(130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°55'(25.9°)
E128°30'(128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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Re: WPAC: Invest 99W

#5 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Aug 16, 2013 5:50 pm

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Issued

Image

WTPN22 PGTW 162030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161951Z AUG 13//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 162000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.0N 131.7E TO 27.0N 126.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161632Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 25.2N 131.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.4N
131.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 131.0E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED NORTH OF THE LLCC. A 161717Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE INTO THE LLCC. A 16/19Z NEARBY SHIP REPORT INDICATED 23 KNOT
WINDS AT 1002 MB. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE AN IMPROVING
LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND BARBS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM FROM
THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
172030Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 123.6E
//
NNNN
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#6 Postby Meow » Fri Aug 16, 2013 10:14 pm

JTWC estimates 13W will be a typhoon and very close to 12W.

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WARNING WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/162021ZAUG13//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 27.0N 130.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 130.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 27.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 28.7N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 28.5N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 28.2N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.0N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 26.3N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.7N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 27.2N 129.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 170000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND
180300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 162021Z AUG 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 162030). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (TWELVE)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 17, 2013 8:56 am

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 26.8N 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 27.5N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 27.9N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 27.7N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 27.1N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.6N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 26.0N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.5N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 27.0N 128.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN33 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THE STRUCTURE OF TD 13W HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS AS CONVECTION HAS NOT IMPROVED, ALTHOUGH MULTIPLE VORTICES
SEEM TO BE PRESENT AS AN EXPOSED CIRCULATION BRIEFLY MADE AN
APPEARANCE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. A 170436Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE SHOWS THE
LIMITED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI LOOP WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS IN THE AREA. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND THE UNCHANGED STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS IN A DECREASING ENVIRONMENT AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH HAS LIMITED THE OUTFLOW DESPITE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
STAYING AT LOW TO MODERATE (05-15 KNOTS) LEVELS. TD 13W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST THROUGH
TAU 36 AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER
TAU 36, DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AS TD 13W BEGINS TO ORBIT AROUND TD 12W.
SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS,
AS MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
LOW TO MODERATE VWS, AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED.
C. TD 13W IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH TD 12W IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, AND EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO EACH OTHER BY TAU 120. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS
CONSOLIDATE AND REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SPREAD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF TD 12W, AND THE DCI, AS TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS HAVE BECOME
CLEAR. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CONTINUED DCI WHILE SOME
SEEM TO INDICATE THAT TD 12W WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION IN
THIS SCENARIO AND CALL FOR TD 13W TO WEAKEN AS TD 12W CREATES AN
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO THIS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#8 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Aug 17, 2013 9:11 pm

TD 13W reminds of the other TD 13W in 2011.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 12:01 am

Image

FINAL WARNING...

WTPN33 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 27.9N 126.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 126.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 28.4N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 28.4N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 126.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM
NORTHWESTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE
DESPITE A SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE CONVECTION AROUND A POORLY DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES
INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS A LOW-LEVEL WAVE FEATURE AND DO NOT RESOLVE A
CLOSED LLCC. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SPREAD, BUT
GENERALLY AGREES WITH A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE COAST OF CHINA AS
TD 13W WEAKENS BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA OF 25 KNOTS. THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS SOME
DEGREE OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TD 12W TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z
IS 8 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 18, 2013 12:16 am

Image

exposed...
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