ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[wxman57]

5 degree (300 miles) repositioning of the invest since 6Z. No convection within 100 miles of 12N/20W.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Reminds me of Irene.

[cycloneye]

Reminds me of Irene.

Can you elaborate more on why is this like Irene?

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, I agree with WXMAN, about model support, but perhaps it will clear out some of the dry air for future disturbances..

I'm surprised that none of the models are turning bullish yet on the tropics. I expected this in June and July but not going into the last 1/2 of August....

Hopefully in September that models will start to come around and turn a bit more bullish on the tropics. Got to get rid of that dry air....

[gatorcane]

Information as of the most recent model cycle

At 1200 UTC, 18 August 2013, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 12.1°N and 20°W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 22 kt at a bearing of 270 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realti ... /al942013/

[hurricanes1234]

I agree with the models, because the conditions in the majority of the Atlantic are extremely hostile, despite being in the peak months of the year. 94L could probably end up just like Erin, Chantal and Dorian, collapsing soon after being named, into open waves/depressions. Or, it could take a more southerly track (where conditions are said to be more favourable), and end up becoming a hurricane, as the 12z SHIP model explicitly shows. Personally, I think that it would be named, however, I am not sure about it attaining hurricane status.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Reminds me of Irene.

Can you elaborate more on why is this like Irene?

Sure. Timing is about the same, general wave shape is the same and some of the models do take this close to the EC.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Because the system is so broad, it will take several days to organize as it tracks west to west-northwest. However, the environment will remain pretty favorable. This is the wave the GFS has been on and off with developing into a big hurricane in the long range.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 44 53 63 71 79 84 89 92
SHEAR (KT) 12 11 14 19 21 18 17 13 11 5 7 3 9
SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.6
700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 60 59 57 58 59 56 57 56 57 56

[cycloneye]

10%-20%

A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[gatorcane]

GFS is less bullish in the 12Z run. Could be a reason why NHC has lowered the development changes a little on this run.

[ninel conde]

greg postel wasnt too bullish either.

[Riptide]

greg postel wasnt too bullish either.

He is always conservative in his forecasts.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 94, 2013081818, , BEST, 0, 121N, 219W, 20, 1007, DB

[cycloneye]

2 PM discussion.

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COASTLINE AND EXTENDS
AN AXIS FROM 15N16W TO A 1009 MB LOW CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N17W TO 04N18W. THE WAVE IS POSITIONED
WITHIN THE HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED
BY 07N12W TO 01S26W TO 08N30W TO 15N17W.

[alienstorm]

This one is not likely to develop still very hostile conditions mainly dry air.

[gatorcane]

18z Best Track.

AL, 94, 2013081818, , BEST, 0, 121N, 219W, 20, 1007, DB

Graphic I put together below. As you can see, little convection near the best track location underscoring NHC's outlook that development if any, will be slow to occur with this invest:

[sunnyday]

Can't help noticing how little interest is being shown here. Some are already saying this one will not make it just like the few others that have come before this season.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON ERIN
THAT IS NOW A REMNANT LOW WELL WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[CrazyC83]

The key is the next 72 hours, in which I don't see much happening. If it maintains a wave structure to 40W, then it could take off east of the islands.

But there is way too much dry air up to 40W. And if it somehow develops like Erin, it is more likely to turn poleward and get sucked into the desert mess.

[Gustywind]

No mention in the 8 PM TWD of the low pressure attached with this twave.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE WAVE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 19N22W TO 9N22W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS
POSITIONED JUST E OF A MOIST AREA...AS NOTED ON SSMI IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.