EPAC: IVO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF CABO SAN
LUCAS MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

[supercane4867]

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

[hurricanes1234]

What is this storm expected to peak as? A tropical storm? A Category 1?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[supercane4867]

What is this storm expected to peak as? A tropical storm? A Category 1?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

HWFI makes sense IMO

[Yellow Evan]

What is this storm expected to peak as? A tropical storm? A Category 1?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TS, with chance of Cat 1.

[hurricanes1234]

SHIPS barely makes it a hurricane. I wonder if the SHIPS would be reduced to strong tropical storm strength by 0:00 UTC August 22.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

SHIPS barely makes it a hurricane. I wonder if the SHIPS would be reduced to strong tropical storm strength by 0:00 UTC August 22.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Why would it?

[Yellow Evan]

993 mbar peak

[hurricanes1234]

The forecast has been slowly been reduced from a moderate Category 1 to a minimal Category 1. But now as you mentioned 993 mbar, it may peak as a low-end hurricane (80 mph maximum).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Best Track puts this system on the verge of being classified.

EP, 94, 2013082200, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1110W, 30, 1006, LO,

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

The forecast has been slowly been reduced from a moderate Category 1 to a minimal Category 1. But now as you mentioned 993 mbar, it may peak as a low-end hurricane (80 mph maximum).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There is no official forecast. These are just models.

[Yellow Evan]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME OVERNIGHT OR
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[jaguarjace]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
800 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 111.6W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
A NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD STAY WELL OFF THE COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 221450
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
800 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN
LUCAS...AND IT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A BAND
THAT WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...BUT IT HAS A
DISTINCT WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM MEETS THE
QUALIFICATIONS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 30 KT BASED MAINLY ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS A WINDOW OF ABOUT 48 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
IT REACHES SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THE STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE COULD ARGUE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...AND
INDEED ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A LOW- TO
MODERATE-STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS. WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS DUE TO THE COLDER WATER...
STABLE AIR...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE CYCLONE COULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY
DAY 4.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS MOVING TOWARD
A BREAK IN THE RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BREAK IN THE
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGES...WITH SOME MODELS MOVING THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA COAST AND OTHERS
TURNING IT SOUTHWESTWARD. DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND WEAKENING
STEERING CURRENTS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE REMNANT LOW
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON DAY 5.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD BEGIN SURGING
NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 17.5N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 19.2N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 20.5N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 21.9N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 27.0N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1200Z 27.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[zeehag]

20 mi north of manzanillo we are still getting feeders overhead..slightly more windy today and yesterday than the previous days...yes i will remain in barra de navidad until november or december.

[Yellow Evan]

20 mi north of manzanillo we are still getting feeders overhead..slightly more windy today and yesterday than the previous days...yes i will remain in barra de navidad until november or december.

Does not appear to be from 9-E. Look here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

[tolakram]

A little late with this.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep942013_ep092013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308221430
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[jaguarjace]

Saved loop.

[hurricanes1234]

Please pardon my inexperience, but I saw that the advisory stated that the structure of the depression could argue with significant intensification. What is the difference between this depression and one that would favour strengthening?

[Yellow Evan]

Please pardon my inexperience, but I saw that the advisory stated that the structure of the depression could argue with significant intensification. What is the difference between this depression and one that would favour strengthening?

It's larger than most EPAC storms and very disorganized.