CPAC: THREE-C - Tropical Depression

[HURAKAN]

At this rate, get a system farther east and the CPAC might spin up something huge...although this may not even become a storm.

This is starting to feel like an El Nino year.

All 3 storms were weak though. 3 of our last 4 El Nino's all had a hurricane that formed in the CPHC AOR.

PEWA was very strong for a few hours just west of the Dateline

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 200230
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032013
500 PM HST MON AUG 19 2013

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THREE-C HAS BEEN PULSING DURING
THE DAY WITH THE LATEST BURST OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
ESTIMATED LOW LEVEL CENTER. UNFORTUNATELY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS
MISSED THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES CAME IN AT 25 TO 30
KT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.
LIKE OTHER RECENT CENTRAL PACIFIC SYSTEMS...PEWA AND UNALA...
THREE-C IS RATHER SMALL. IT IS ALSO THE EASTERNMOST CYCLONE WITHIN
A PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THAT PROPAGATED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT...A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A LOW
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THREE-C IS
JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH PUTS IT WITHIN HIGH
LEVEL WESTERLIES AND SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR. THE 0000 UTC CIMSS
ANALYSIS SHOWED 20 TO 30 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE WEST. THE LARGE-SCALE
DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN AT LEAST 15 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AND MAY BE THE MAIN REASON WHY THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL
OBJECTIVE AIDS MAINTAIN THREE-C NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS. GIVEN NO
DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT IN THE SYSTEM/S ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY
AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OBJECTIVE AIDS...THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE IS LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
PROJECTS WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW AT AROUND 36 HOURS AND THEN
DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 18.8N 176.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 19.2N 178.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 19.8N 179.1E 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 20.6N 176.4E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[Yellow Evan]

This just moved into the WPAC, BTW.