ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

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invest_al962013.invest
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201308300117
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2013, DB, O, 2013083000, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962013
AL, 96, 2013082906, , BEST, 0, 137N, 116W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2013082912, , BEST, 0, 140N, 129W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2013082918, , BEST, 0, 143N, 142W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2013083000, , BEST, 0, 145N, 155W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115528&hilit=&start=0

[Gustywind]

That was fast !

[Gustywind]

First appareance as a special feature...
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2013

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N16W TO 20N13W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N15W.
ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE HAS YET TO FULLY EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA...IT DISPLAYS PLENTY OF SURFACE TO 700 MB VORTICITY WITH
A MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND AREAS TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 14W-18W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN 10W-19W.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS now keeps this alive for at least 192 hours, strengthening again at the end.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013082918&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

It would be funny if we got our first major at the very end of August.

[Gustywind]

18Z GFS now keeps this alive for at least 192 hours, strengthening again at the end.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013082918&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

It would be funny if we got our first major at the very end of August.

Yeah Very funny, but let's wait and see really if the conditions can allow to support at least a TD and even a TS during the next couple of days. Plenty of time to watch it.

[SFLcane]

Nice fishey looks well organized this evening and would not be suprised if it developes into the seasons first cane. Again its unlikely to effect any land areas other then the capeverde islands.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Any chance this won't recurve, or is it pretty much a certainty at this point?

[SFLcane]

Any chance this won't recurve, or is it pretty much a certainty at this point?

Nope..

[Gustywind]

From Wunderground.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... text=track


Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
00 GMT 08/30/13 14.5N 15.5W 20 1009 Invest

[cycloneye]

Any chance this won't recurve, or is it pretty much a certainty at this point?

Recurve is the expected outcome being already above 14n latitude.

[Hammy]

An invest! In the desert that is the 2013 hurricane season, it must be a mirage!

Looks like it has a good circulation based on the (so far) three available images on NRL. Wouldn't surprise me to see it upgraded as soon as it moves over water tomorrow or Sat.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Any chance this won't recurve, or is it pretty much a certainty at this point?

.00000000000000000000000000001%

[tolakram]

18Z GFS now keeps this alive for at least 192 hours, strengthening again at the end.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013082918&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

It would be funny if we got our first major at the very end of August.

Yeah Very funny, but let's wait and see really if the conditions can allow to support at least a TD and even a TS during the next couple of days. Plenty of time to watch it.

Yea, highly unlikely in the short term ( ), but I think this will be our first major and if not the one behind it will be. Famous last words, of course.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Conditions look favorable for development until it passes the Cape Verde Islands. After that time, it will likely encounter cooler ocean temperatures, moderate wind shear, and a lack of moisture. The GFS suggests it could get farther north and intensify eventually, much like Hurricane Kirk from last season. We shall see.

[USTropics]

850mb vort showing pretty good spin at the low-level as it begins to exit the coast of Africa:

[Blinhart]

Any chance they might up it to TD before it even gets over water?

[USTropics]

Floater up for 96L:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96L/96L_floater.html

[hurricanes1234]

So then is there a chance of this system intensifying into a hurricane? What about a major hurricane (or even a Category 2)?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fci]

Another possible early developer that gets past the Cape Verde Islands and poofs.....

[Brent]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
EXTREME WESTERN AFRICA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AS THE WAVE NEARS THAT AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.