ATL: GABRIELLE - Models

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ATL: GABRIELLE - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:00 pm

All about models here.

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ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
 * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
 * INVEST AL972013 08/31/13 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 36 42 50 56 62 66 70 71
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 36 42 50 56 62 66 70 60
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 31 34 38 45 54 66 76 86 73
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 11 13 11 4 6 0 5 5 4 8 6 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -4 -2 -2 -3 0 -2
SHEAR DIR 256 257 241 250 261 200 241 188 304 247 296 214 262
SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 144 145 145 148 149 151 153 153 154 154 154
ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 139 140 139 142 143 145 147 149 150 148 147
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 11
700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 52 55 54 57 60 62 61 63 61 63
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 22 24 23 18 19 26 34 48 56 55 48 45 34
200 MB DIV 16 30 18 26 23 17 11 1 3 23 16 24 0
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -4 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 1 1 6 6 5
LAND (KM) 890 798 714 637 568 473 435 444 367 268 190 75 32
LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.7 14.9 15.5 16.4 17.5 18.6
LONG(DEG W) 54.0 55.1 56.1 57.1 58.0 59.8 61.4 63.0 64.7 66.5 68.5 70.6 72.8
STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 10 11 11 12
HEAT CONTENT 32 27 28 32 39 48 29 44 62 49 37 25 22

 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1
 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=624)
 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5)
 % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0)

 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
 -------------------------------------------------- --------
 SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
 SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35.
 VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 13.
 VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
 VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15.
 PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
 THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1.
 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
 GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
 ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
 STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
 DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
 GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
 -------------------------------------------------- --------
 TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 17. 25. 31. 37. 41. 45. 46.

 ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 08/31/13 12 UTC **
 ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0

 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

 ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 08/31/13 12 UTC ##
 ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
 ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 08/31/2013 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#2 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:28 pm

12z CMC :lol:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#3 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:32 pm

CMC still at it....and right now it looks like it has pulled a HUGE COUP over the big globals!! I wouldnt discount it at all...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#4 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:35 pm

ROCK wrote:CMC still at it....and right now it looks like it has pulled a HUGE COUP over the big globals!! I wouldnt discount it at all...

God if 97L is an east coast storm like that, Im doomed :lol:
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-THE ABOVE IS THE OPINION OF DREW ONLY
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#5 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:39 pm

If this run of CMC become reality we will have 4 storms and a hurricane by day 10 completely overturn the bust numbers :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#6 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:40 pm

supercane4867 wrote:If this run of CMC become reality we will have 4 storms and a hurricane by day 10 completely overturn the bust numbers :lol:



and all the season cancel folks will go back into hiding.... :lol:
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#7 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:52 pm

Well right now the CMC and NAM are the only models I see showing this system developing. The GFS/ECMWF/FIM don't develop it. Even the NAVGEM has dropped it :)
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ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#8 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Aug 31, 2013 1:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:Well right now the CMC and NAM are the only models I see showing this system developing. The GFS/ECMWF/FIM don't develop it. Even the NAVGEM has dropped it :)


How is it going to be well off the east coast according to the almighty cmc when in 4-5 days the Nhc says it will be in the western Caribbean? Probably will show it hitting NYC with back to back canes before long in a weeks time :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#9 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Aug 31, 2013 1:30 pm

ROCK wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:If this run of CMC become reality we will have 4 storms and a hurricane by day 10 completely overturn the bust numbers :lol:



and all the season cancel folks will go back into hiding.... :lol:


Not a jab at you rock but its just as annoying as all the folks declaring every cloud swirl a threat and arguing against every statement the nhc and pros have to say on a daily basis against a waves minimal chances of developing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2013 1:36 pm

12z UKMET



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.08.2013


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 14.2N 61.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 05.09.2013 14.2N 61.8W WEAK

12UTC 05.09.2013 15.0N 64.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2013 15.6N 66.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2013 16.5N 69.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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#11 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 1:40 pm

12zUKMET as 97L due south of Puerto Rico in 3 days.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#12 Postby Riptide » Sat Aug 31, 2013 1:42 pm

According to visible satellite, the center is already located at 15.2N and the UKMet is too far south at initialization. Though, the circulation is very broad and there could be multiple LLC reformations in the future.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2013 1:48 pm

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1838 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130831 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130831 1800 130901 0600 130901 1800 130902 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 55.5W 15.2N 58.0W 15.4N 60.2W 15.2N 62.2W
BAMD 15.1N 55.5W 15.3N 57.0W 15.5N 58.5W 15.6N 59.9W
BAMM 15.1N 55.5W 15.1N 57.5W 15.1N 59.3W 14.9N 61.0W
LBAR 15.1N 55.5W 15.3N 57.6W 15.5N 59.9W 15.6N 62.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130902 1800 130903 1800 130904 1800 130905 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 64.2W 15.8N 68.2W 17.4N 73.1W 19.2N 78.1W
BAMD 15.6N 61.2W 16.3N 64.3W 18.0N 68.3W 19.9N 72.3W
BAMM 14.7N 62.5W 15.2N 65.9W 17.2N 70.1W 19.6N 74.4W
LBAR 15.5N 64.9W 15.2N 69.6W 16.6N 73.9W 18.9N 76.4W
SHIP 45KTS 58KTS 67KTS 71KTS
DSHP 45KTS 58KTS 67KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 55.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 52.6W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 50.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#14 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 31, 2013 1:56 pm

Interesting how the SHIPS show moderate to low windshear and a moistening atmosphere ahead of 97L, the UKMET and Canadian may not be that crazy after all.
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#15 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 31, 2013 1:58 pm

Early intensity guidance (18Z) all show increased intensity:

Image

Early 18Z Model Guidance:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#16 Postby perk » Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:01 pm

[quote="cycloneye"][b]CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1838 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130831 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130831 1800 130901 0600 130901 1800 130902 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 55.5W 15.2N 58.0W 15.4N 60.2W 15.2N 62.2W
BAMD 15.1N 55.5W 15.3N 57.0W 15.5N 58.5W 15.6N 59.9W
BAMM 15.1N 55.5W 15.1N 57.5W 15.1N 59.3W 14.9N 61.0W
LBAR 15.1N 55.5W 15.3N 57.6W 15.5N 59.9W 15.6N 62.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130902 1800 130903 1800 130904 1800 130905 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 64.2W 15.8N 68.2W 17.4N 73.1W 19.2N 78.1W
BAMD 15.6N 61.2W 16.3N 64.3W 18.0N 68.3W 19.9N 72.3W
BAMM 14.7N 62.5W 15.2N 65.9W 17.2N 70.1W 19.6N 74.4W
LBAR 15.5N 64.9W 15.2N 69.6W 16.6N 73.9W 18.9N 76.4W
SHIP 45KTS 58KTS 67KTS 71KTS
DSHP 45KTS 58KTS 67KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 55.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 52.6W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 50.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
[


First model run looks to be at or south Jamaica's latitude.
Last edited by perk on Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#17 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:07 pm

Have the HWRF and gfdl ran yet?

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:12 pm

Hurricane Alexis wrote:Have the HWRF and gfdl ran yet?

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Not yet. Let's see if they do so at 00z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#19 Postby perk » Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:13 pm

The gfs and the euro has had some issues sniffing out development.Just because they're not seeing development does'nt make it so.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:27 pm

HurricaneDREW92 wrote:
ROCK wrote:CMC still at it....and right now it looks like it has pulled a HUGE COUP over the big globals!! I wouldnt discount it at all...

God if 97L is an east coast storm like that, Im doomed :lol:


Look at the H's above it on there. In that pattern, steering currents would break down and it would be stuck in the Gulf Stream - kinda like Diana 1984 or Felix 1995...
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