ATL: GABRIELLE - Models

[Aric Dunn]

One issue... there is no low with the eastern system. That is simply a wave. The models may be overdeveloping a low with it due to the very large area of convection

not a well defined low by any standards but clear in the low levels there is a weak elongated circ clearly evident in satellite shooting out of the convection. at about 19n 62w. enough to cause some interaction.

[Alyono]

Not seeing a LLC there. What I think you're seeing are the low clouds going west and the high clouds going east, giving the illusion of a LLC

[Aric Dunn]

Not seeing a LLC there. What I think you're seeing are the low clouds going west and the high clouds going east, giving the illusion of a LLC

nope... like i said not a well defined circ at all... there is rotation rotation .. besides im using RGB and can tell the difference between high mid and low level flow with no problems.

[Alyono]

using IR to determine a LLC? Try 1km visible... the different features are more evident

[Aric Dunn]

Not seeing a LLC there. What I think you're seeing are the low clouds going west and the high clouds going east, giving the illusion of a LLC

nope... like i said not a well defined circ at all... there is rotation rotation .. besides im using RGB and can tell the difference between high mid and low level flow with no problems.

sorry for the crudeness ... of course this not precise lol .. but you get the general idea. very weak not defined just a low level rotation.

using IR to determine a LLC? Try 1km visible... the different features are more evident

[ROCK]

got to agree with Aric on this one Alyono...sorry... does look like a weak low to the east and I do look at 1KM scans....

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: got to agree with Aric on this one Alyono...sorry... does look like a weak low to the east and I do look at 1KM scans....

of course a better term may be a weak vort...

none the less the models are having an issue resolving the two areas.

[gatorcane]

You can see why the models are sharply recurving 97L north of Hispaniola. Check out the trough already digging from the Great Lakes southeastward as it will continue to erode the Bermuda High until basically there is no Bermuda High left.

That is something you would see in October or November. Is it really September 4th?

[ROCK]

12Z EURO...up and out but doesnt really ramp it up until its way north...similiar to the GFS...

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1844 UTC WED SEP 4 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130904 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130904 1800 130905 0600 130905 1800 130906 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 65.9W 17.0N 68.0W 17.8N 70.1W 18.3N 71.8W
BAMD 16.2N 65.9W 17.0N 67.7W 17.6N 69.3W 18.1N 70.7W
BAMM 16.2N 65.9W 16.9N 67.7W 17.5N 69.4W 17.9N 70.9W
LBAR 16.2N 65.9W 17.1N 67.5W 18.3N 69.1W 19.5N 70.6W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130906 1800 130907 1800 130908 1800 130909 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.6N 73.5W 19.1N 76.7W 19.6N 79.3W 20.2N 82.0W
BAMD 18.6N 72.0W 19.7N 74.1W 21.4N 74.9W 24.2N 74.7W
BAMM 18.3N 72.3W 18.9N 74.9W 19.7N 76.5W 20.5N 78.0W
LBAR 20.6N 72.1W 23.3N 74.0W 26.4N 73.6W 30.1N 71.4W
SHIP 59KTS 67KTS 67KTS 64KTS
DSHP 39KTS 50KTS 49KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 65.9W DIRCUR = 294DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 64.6W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.1N LONM24 = 63.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Riptide]

12Z EURO...up and out but doesnt really ramp it up until its way north...similiar to the GFS...

The GFS does not recurve it though completely, but mabye if the vortex stays in one piece it would end up like the Euro.

[Aric Dunn]

12Z EURO...up and out but doesnt really ramp it up until its way north...similiar to the GFS...

The GFS does not recurve it though completely, but mabye if the vortex stays in one piece it would end up like the Euro.

yuo can clearly see the eiro favoring the ne area to develop as the other area to that recon is looking at runs over DR and dies...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html

[Riptide]

12Z EURO...up and out but doesnt really ramp it up until its way north...similiar to the GFS...

The GFS does not recurve it though completely, but mabye if the vortex stays in one piece it would end up like the Euro.

yuo can clearly see the eiro favoring the ne area to develop as the other area to that recon is looking at runs over DR and dies...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html

I see the southern vortmax go through the mona passage, btw would not take much change in the long-range to bring whatever becomes of 97L into Cape Cod.

[Blown Away]

Weather Underground map considers 97L the piece the GFS leaves behind and turns it westward...

[gatorcane]

12Z EURO...up and out but doesnt really ramp it up until its way north...similiar to the GFS...

Here is the link to the full 240 hour 12Z ECMWF loop in case anybody is interested in seeing it:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[ROCK]

where is Wundergrud getting that GFS run?

[Aric Dunn]

Weather Underground map considers 97L the piece the GFS leaves behind and turns it westward...

it is quite possible and I mentioned it earlier that the models are latching on to the wrong area do to the land interaction and with the energy to the ne of the the current 97L. The two areas may end up splitting and the GFS solution today and the euro solution from a couple day ago maybe take shape as well.

[ninel conde]

You can see why the models are sharply recurving 97L north of Hispaniola. Check out the trough already digging from the Great Lakes southeastward as it will continue to erode the Bermuda High until basically there is no Bermuda High left.

That is something you would see in October or November. Is it really September 4th?

thats the winterlike pattern ive been talking about. textbook picture of the texas ridge and wnw flow blocking landfalls and inhibiting inclose development.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z UKMET is about as bullish as I have seen it in a while, even though it is just 1010MB (has a couple of circles around it)

72 Hour forecast below:

[Blown Away]

18z...A few models bend back west now...