ATL: GABRIELLE - Models

[northjaxpro]

This is a scenario that can't be ruled out. The trough may leave Gabrielle behind in about 5 days. I will be curious on watching for trends in future model runs to see just how strong the ridge may get by the end of next 120 hours or so.

[NDG]

Lol, 0z ECMWF develops the TW NE of Gabrielle and quickly shoots it out to sea but shows Gabrielle to die out some tonight over eastern Hispaniola and remain weak eventually reaching the Carolinas. More mind bugling model output to the puzzle, lol

[ronjon]

Yeah models having a tough time down the road with Gabby. Latest 06z GFS splits off the vorticity and moves it west toward Georgia-JAX in 4-5 days.

[ninel conde]

with another trof forecast next week most likely it will be very weak and sheared if it heads west.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS continues to build a strong Western Atlantic ridge in the wake of the current trough. By days 4 and 5 you can see it here stretching across the Western Atlantic into the Eastern part of the United States. So if Gabrielle hangs around long enough and the current trough doesn't get her, it may get interesting...

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS Ensembles..some more ensembles than yesterday thinking it goes west:

[Hurricaneman]

Any model that has the 2 vortmax idea will probably win out in the end as it looks like the surface low is heading for Hispaniola while it looks like the MLC with convection is heading towards the north. Does anyone think the models will bring back the 2 vortex idea

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[tolakram]

The euro never dropped the idea, but it now kicks the second vorticity north in 24 hours.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013090500&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

The latest GFS run shows the vorticity moving up over PR, with a strong second vorticity at hour 0 fading fast.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090506/gfs_vort850_uv200_atltropics.html

[N2FSU]

12Z GFS rolling in. Here is 24hr:

[N2FSU]

12Z GFS; 48hr:

[Blown Away]

The westward models kept Gabby shallow, so we will have to see if the naked LLC moving towards Hispaniola can survive and regenerate once north of the Caribbean...Once north of the Caribbean, what's left of Gabby's LLC will linger around for days and I suspect all the energy over/east of PR will get sucked out to sea...

[Aric Dunn]

Appears the GFS is back on a recurve have to wait for the next few frames though..

[tolakram]

12Z GFS 9 hour vorticity. This looks more plausible.

[tolakram]

At 129 hours it's just a stretched out mess.



At 144 it's better defined and moving north west.

[Aric Dunn]

you can see the large break that initially picks it up then it fills in but by that time its to high in latitude a short wave trough swings in and breaks the ridge down. this different than the last few run in that it never gains i enough latitude to be picked up by the second trough... of course all this assuming it survives at all.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090512/gfs_z500_mslp_atltropics.html

[Orlando_wx]

That GFS run is eerily starting to remind me of Jeanne. Pulled north by a trough only to get left behind...Cyclonic loop and then west into FLA.

SFT

JB mentioned something to this effect last night on twitter.

[Aric Dunn]

navgem nearly identical to the gfs for once.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=nvg_troplant&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2013090512&set=Tropical

[tolakram]

I don't understand the 12Z Euro.

Vorticity: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I don't understand the 12Z Euro.

Vorticity: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

Seems to me that it develops the eastern feature and moves it NW and then NE out to sea while totallly disapating Gabrielle. I find it interesting that it builds a ridge back in past 4 days.

[Aric Dunn]

given that she might be back... it is note worthy that the models are swinging back to more ridging.. the GFS loses her but brings the vort into NC the cmc way left.. no recurve until after nova scotia

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation