ATL: GABRIELLE - Models

[N2FSU]

18ZGFS;78hr
Ridge looks to be setting up.

[N2FSU]

18Z GFS;105hr
weak low over the SW Bahamas

[floridasun78]

but nhc have it going north and north east

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It will floridasun. Another trough is forecast to develop and drop down the eastern us again with cold front dropping to north gulf coast towards the later half of next week. Will have no choice.

[Aric Dunn]

Though you all might find this interesting....

[gatorcane]

Though you all might find this interesting....

Aric, yeah not really a surprise. I see some models are gradually shifting a little more west with each run. As I said, models have been trying to eject this system to the north and NE for many days now and I just didn't see it happening.

The GFS ensembles keep the area hanging around for even longer:

[gatorcane]

You can see why the GFS ensembles are no longer showing that this system escapes to the NE the next several days. Here at 78 hours, the 700MB flow shows the ridge has built back in to the north

[floridasun78]

i got question why do nhc still say going move north to north east???? with high building to north

['CaneFreak]

Easy as pie. Because the trough has not lifted out yet.

i got question why do nhc still say going move north to north east???? with high building to north

[Riptide]

12z GEM brings this system quite close to the conus but recurving away just in time for a near miss.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[SeGaBob]

Easy as pie. Because the trough has not lifted out yet.

i got question why do nhc still say going move north to north east???? with high building to north

When is the trough supposed to lift out?

[gatorcane]

Easy as pie. Because the trough has not lifted out yet.

i got question why do nhc still say going move north to north east???? with high building to north

When is the trough supposed to lift out?

The trough starts to lift out a little less than 48 hours from now. I still see most models are stubborn and continue to insist this system goes North or NE yet if you haven't noticed, it hasn't really moved much all day or the past couple of days for that matter. The longer it it drifts around without gaining latitude, the more I can some models start to back away from the NE and out to sea solution as it will help allow the ridge to build in to the north. As you can see from Aric's post there are several models that are now showing it starting heading to the west instead.

The NHC will go with the model consensus (TVCN) which is still taking this north or NNE and out to sea.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It will only prolong the inevitable. Another trough is supposed to strengthen and drop down the eastern us and with it a weak cold front making its way south towards the gulf coast.

Here is the long range forecast from mobile nws talking about it.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE HOT CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. AS THIS TROUGH AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL SEND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE GULF COAST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE WEAKENING
UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

[SeGaBob]

Easy as pie. Because the trough has not lifted out yet.
When is the trough supposed to lift out?

The trough starts to lift out a little less than 48 hours from now. I still see most models are stubborn and continue to insist this system goes North or NE yet if you haven't noticed, it hasn't really moved much all day or the past couple of days for that matter. The longer it it drifts around without gaining latitude, the more I can some models start to back away from the NE and out to sea solution as it will help allow the ridge to build in to the north. As you can see from Aric's post there are several models that are now showing it starting heading to the west instead.

The NHC will go with the model consensus (TVCN) which is still taking this north or NNE and out to sea.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks for your reply.

[floridasun78]

but nhc do think it will move north and northeast their say it last few outlook

[gatorcane]

Looks like the system is on the move finally towards the NE. Models have now come back into good agreement that it won't get trapped by the ridge and should finally start heading out to sea. Might be a Bermuda threat if it develops:



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

048
WHXX01 KWBC 100045
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0045 UTC TUE SEP 10 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE GABRIELLE (AL922013) 20130910 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130910 0000 130910 1200 130911 0000 130911 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.2N 65.3W 28.7N 65.5W 30.0N 65.9W 30.9N 66.4W
BAMD 27.2N 65.3W 29.4N 65.1W 31.5N 64.9W 32.8N 64.6W
BAMM 27.2N 65.3W 29.0N 65.2W 30.7N 65.3W 31.8N 65.4W
LBAR 27.2N 65.3W 29.1N 64.9W 31.0N 64.6W 32.5N 64.2W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130912 0000 130913 0000 130914 0000 130915 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.3N 66.8W 31.9N 66.7W 33.3N 64.6W 38.1N 61.0W
BAMD 33.2N 64.2W 32.4N 63.6W 32.9N 63.3W 37.0N 59.7W
BAMM 32.3N 65.3W 32.6N 64.9W 34.6N 63.2W 41.4N 58.6W
LBAR 33.5N 63.8W 35.6N 64.8W 40.7N 62.8W 49.1N 51.7W
SHIP 49KTS 54KTS 64KTS 67KTS
DSHP 49KTS 54KTS 64KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.2N LONCUR = 65.3W DIRCUR = 50DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 25.9N LONM12 = 66.9W DIRM12 = 55DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 25.1N LONM24 = 68.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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