ATL: GABRIELLE - Models

[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone have the shear forecast for Gabrielle?

['CaneFreak]

From the 00Z SHIPS Model (6 hour increments):

SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 4 4 14 16 17 20 21 28 30 35

Does anyone have the shear forecast for Gabrielle?

[Blinhart]

From the 00Z SHIPS Model (6 hour increments):

SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 4 4 14 16 17 20 21 28 30 35

Does anyone have the shear forecast for Gabrielle?

But isn't that for just the expected spot of where Gabrielle is suppose to be, what is the shear suppose to be in other areas of the basin that Gabrielle might be at. Also isn't the shear forecast very suspect after 48 hours??

[blp]

00z so far no more second vort. This may be a different run from the others.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090500/gfs_z850_vort_atl_24.png

[Riptide]

Gabrielle is trapped on the 0z GFS; no more convective feedback from the northern vort.

[blp]

00z is certainly much different and no clear cut recurve yet and we are at 162 hours that is 6 days and anything can happen that far out all you need is a stronger than predicted high to build back in.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_53.png

['CaneFreak]

It just gives you a very GENERAL sense of what the shear might be like in the environment surrounding Gabrielle. Yes, the shear forecasts after 48 hours typically aren't very accurate but I don't think they are too far off considering this will likely be interacting with a trough in 5 days.

From the 00Z SHIPS Model (6 hour increments):

SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 4 4 14 16 17 20 21 28 30 35

Does anyone have the shear forecast for Gabrielle?

But isn't that for just the expected spot of where Gabrielle is suppose to be, what is the shear suppose to be in other areas of the basin that Gabrielle might be at. Also isn't the shear forecast very suspect after 48 hours??

[ROCK]

yeah she or he gets trapped...but probably too far north and just waiting for the next trof...

[tolakram]

Watch the loop. GFS now moves the vorticity west after a few frames of NE. Good grief.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090500/gfs_vort850_uv200_atltropics.html

[ROCK]

looks like a short wave coming in also....

[blp]

288hr no recurve ridge nudges it SW then disappears after that.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_71.png

[tolakram]

288hr no recurve ridge nudges it SW then disappears after that.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_71.png

Vorticity is better to watch IMO, since GFS doesn't really handle intensity. Hopefully it stays weak, or gets weaker as it heads west.

[Hurricaneman]

288hr no recurve ridge nudges it SW then disappears after that.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_71.png

and the remains landfall in Florida at 336 so we may be dealing with this for a long time to come

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[Riptide]

We might be tracking this for some time, according to the 0z GFS. I have my doubts about the intensity depicted but also realize that stalled storms are usually on the weaker side; due to upwelling and shear.

[tolakram]

With the caveat that wind shear forecasts are almost always wrong... the windshear loop

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090500/gfs_shear_atltropics.html

[ROCK]

the EURO should be interesting tonight...

[SouthFLTropics]

That GFS run is eerily starting to remind me of Jeanne. Pulled north by a trough only to get left behind...Cyclonic loop and then west into FLA.

SFT

[blp]

We might be tracking this for some time, according to the 0z GFS. I have my doubts about the intensity depicted but also realize that stalled storms are usually on the weaker side; due to upwelling and shear.

Yea, it never gets stronger than 1007mb during 12 days and about 4 different High's building over top of it. Looks suspect.

[blp]

CMC is lost, develops east vort in 6hrs.

http://imageshack.us/f/51/uxkm.jpg/

[ScottNAtlanta]

That GFS run is eerily starting to remind me of Jeanne. Pulled north by a trough only to get left behind...Cyclonic loop and then west into FLA.

SFT

...and also with Jeanne, it was a relatively weak storm until it made the loop back to FL which is when it got its act together...thats when it really deepened. It was a rain maker more than anything...which is also looking familiar (just in PR not Haiti)