ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#101 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 06, 2013 12:38 pm

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
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#102 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 06, 2013 1:22 pm

2 PM Tropical Weather Discussion.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN
28W AND 38W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#103 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 06, 2013 2:12 pm

18z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013090612, , BEST, 0, 144N, 343W, 20, 1012, LO
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Re: Re:

#104 Postby Blinhart » Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:08 pm

jaguarjace wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Who can post the latest sat pic for 98L? Please :).


Saved loop :)
http://imageshack.us/a/img89/1183/pz91.gif



So we have another system that has a split-personality, this time North and South instead of East and West like Gabby was. Will the models have trouble with this one due to 2 separate parts of this wave.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#105 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 06, 2013 6:19 pm

I wouldn't bet against this, when this gets to 50W it could do what Gabrielle did and convect and become something

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#106 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 06, 2013 6:39 pm

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
UNLIKELY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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#107 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 06, 2013 6:53 pm

How it can manage to even put up convection in its environment is beyond me. It is tenacious to say the least. The shear is insanely high there and it is in the middle of the last SAL outbreak.
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#108 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 06, 2013 7:48 pm

Saved Shortwave GIF. Center is located 14.4N, 34.6W. Looks like a vigorous circulation to me though it's lacking convection at the moment. Still thinking it could be a player down the road once it gets further west into some possibly better conditions in about 5-7 days as it has some model support (NAVGEM and CMC at the moment):

Image
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#109 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 06, 2013 7:57 pm

8 PM TWD

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N34W TO A 1010 MB
LOW AT 14N35W TO 7N35W MOVING W AT 5 KT. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. PRESENTLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
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#110 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 06, 2013 8:00 pm

It may look horrible, but the shear it is dealing with is basically a hurricane blowing into its face...
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#111 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 06, 2013 9:55 pm

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL982013&starting_image=2013AL98_4KMIRIMG_201309062215.GIF

seems to be getting a tiny bit better organized, circulation looks slightly more circular today
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#112 Postby LaBreeze » Sat Sep 07, 2013 1:11 am

Is 98L looking to go fishing before it gets anywhere close to the islands?
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Not an official forecast by any means.
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#113 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 07, 2013 2:18 am

-80C cloud tops and seems to be moving northeast...
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#114 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 07, 2013 6:23 am

2 AM Tropical Weather Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N34W THROUGH A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 14N35W TO 10N35W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W NEAR 5
KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. LOW/WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. LOW IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SATELLITE
WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 30W-35W.
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#115 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 07, 2013 7:26 am

No mention in the TWO... of 8 AM.
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#116 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 07, 2013 7:28 am

8 AM Tropical Weather Discussion.


TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N34W THROUGH A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 14N35W TO 10N35W. WAVE HAS BECOME STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. LOW/WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. LOW IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SATELLITE
WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N30W TO 18N32W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#117 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 07, 2013 7:59 am

12z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013090712, , BEST, 0, 144N, 343W, 25, 1010, LO
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#118 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 07, 2013 10:17 am

Latest VIS loop GIF. Not looking all that bad with some convection building. The large disturbance rolling off Africa now has really killed the easterly trades so this invest is currently stationary but should eventually resume a slow WNW motion for a 2-3 days then bend to the W after that and head W with the tradewind flow for many days:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#119 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 07, 2013 1:58 pm

18z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013090718, , BEST, 0, 146N, 345W, 25, 1010, LO
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#120 Postby AEWspotter » Sat Sep 07, 2013 2:10 pm

I don't think we can count this one out just yet. The center is clearly visible on ASCAT.

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... Bds112.png
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