ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

JB thinks everything will be a player. The way things have been going this season we'll be lucky to get a couple of drops of rain out of this. Looks pretty dry out in the central Atlantic.....MGC

So did Pouch 25L (Gabrielle) when it was in the middle of the MDR.

[CourierPR]

JB thinks everything will be a player. The way things have been going this season we'll be lucky to get a couple of drops of rain out of this. Looks pretty dry out in the central Atlantic.....MGC

MGC, you very well could be right but it is what it is for those of us looking for something to track.

[Gustywind]

10%-10%

8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE
TO DRY AIR...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
VERY UNFAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWD

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N30W TO A 1011 MB
LOW AT 13N31W TO 8N32W MOVING W AT 10 KT. DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO DRY AIR...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

[Gustywind]

By the way moderators, the title should be edited as odds increased to 10%-10% . Thanks

[Gustywind]

Tropical Update
Michael Lowry, Hurricane Specialist, The Weather Channel
Sep 5, 2013 7:41 pm ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic (formerly Invest 98-L) is unlikely to develop due to unfavorable winds aloft.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013090600, , BEST, 0, 141N, 323W, 20, 1012, LO

[gatorcane]

RAL update:

At 0000 UTC, 06 September 2013, LOW INVEST (AL98) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 14.1°N and 32.3°W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realti ... /al982013/

[Hammy]

Maybe I'm going crazy from the lack of activity but I'm almost seeing banding and slightly increased organization on the north side.

[hurricaneCW]

It's not a terrible looking invest, has some spin, some banding. If it weren't 2013, I'd give it a good chance of developing as it got further west, but unfortunately it's 2013 so I don't expect much.

It could at the very least make it all the way to the CONUS given the ridging is expected to rebuild in a big way over the east and western Atlantic and the fact that this will likely stay weak.

[Gustywind]

2 AM TWD

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 19N31W
THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N32W TO 9N33W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
W NEAR 5-10 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SATELLITE WINDS WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

[Gustywind]

Down to 0%-0%

2 AM Tropical Weather Outlook

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[hurricanes1234]

Of course it's down to 0%, that's the main idea of 2013 in all basins around the globe right now, including the west Pacific.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ninel conde]

could they make it -20%

[cycloneye]

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[jlauderdal]

could they make it -20%

gonna need something inside of 50W it looks like..gabrielle tried but failed, 6 solid weeks left, dont despair the conditions looking better..peyton manning had to wait 8 months for his glory so we can be patient too

[Gustywind]

8 AM TWD

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 19N32W
THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N33W TO 9N33W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
W NEAR 5-10 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

[Gustywind]

Who can post the latest sat pic for 98L? Please .

[jaguarjace]

Who can post the latest sat pic for 98L? Please .

Saved loop

[gatorcane]

Quite a bit of convection still firing along the wave axis. Still thinking this will be something that could get going possibly as we head into later next week timeframe. Most models bring this far to the west so we need to hope it doesn't find a favorable environment at some point during it's journey across.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.