ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

[cycloneye]

Post all models here.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1706 UTC SAT SEP 7 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912013) 20130907 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130907 1200 130908 0000 130908 1200 130909 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 16.0W 13.3N 17.4W 13.7N 19.1W 14.2N 20.9W
BAMD 13.0N 16.0W 13.3N 17.7W 13.6N 19.5W 14.0N 21.4W
BAMM 13.0N 16.0W 13.4N 17.8W 13.9N 19.6W 14.4N 21.7W
LBAR 13.0N 16.0W 13.5N 17.9W 14.4N 20.1W 15.7N 22.5W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 47KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 38KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130909 1200 130910 1200 130911 1200 130912 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 23.0W 15.9N 27.4W 16.8N 30.9W 18.1N 31.0W
BAMD 14.2N 23.3W 14.9N 26.8W 16.9N 28.7W 20.8N 29.7W
BAMM 14.9N 23.9W 15.4N 28.0W 16.2N 30.3W 18.9N 30.3W
LBAR 16.9N 25.0W 20.1N 29.9W 23.3N 33.7W 26.1N 35.2W
SHIP 59KTS 86KTS 104KTS 108KTS
DSHP 62KTS 88KTS 107KTS 110KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 16.0W DIRCUR = 274DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 14.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 11.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[TheStormExpert]

Wow! This has to be the most intense the models have been on something so far this season. Could this actually be the one that becomes our first hurricane?

[Nimbus]

20N before 40W usually means a fish storm but maybe we will see a hurricane before 98L spins up.

[cycloneye]

18z Guidance.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC SAT SEP 7 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912013) 20130907 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130907 1800 130908 0600 130908 1800 130909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 17.0W 13.7N 18.7W 14.0N 20.5W 14.2N 22.4W
BAMD 13.5N 17.0W 13.8N 18.8W 14.2N 20.7W 14.4N 22.7W
BAMM 13.5N 17.0W 14.0N 18.8W 14.5N 20.9W 14.9N 23.1W
LBAR 13.5N 17.0W 14.0N 19.1W 14.9N 21.4W 16.1N 23.9W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 35KTS 47KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 35KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130909 1800 130910 1800 130911 1800 130912 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 24.5W 15.5N 28.6W 16.1N 31.1W 19.0N 29.8W
BAMD 14.7N 24.8W 15.2N 28.3W 16.7N 30.4W 20.3N 30.9W
BAMM 15.2N 25.5W 15.2N 29.5W 15.6N 31.1W 19.1N 29.7W
LBAR 17.4N 26.5W 20.6N 31.3W 23.7N 34.5W 26.7N 35.1W
SHIP 60KTS 87KTS 103KTS 107KTS
DSHP 60KTS 87KTS 103KTS 107KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 17.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 15.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 13.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[CrazyC83]

I'll see it when I believe it (given the shear maps)...but that has the makings of an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS hurricane. Not just first hurricane, but a major too?

[CrazyC83]

Also with that run, if it intensifies that fast, Cape Verde gets slammed.

[TheStormExpert]

Also with that run, if it intensifies that fast, Cape Verde gets slammed.

Even though systems have been able to rapidly get their act together(surprisingly) after exiting Africa before hitting the wall of unfavorable conditions, I am not buying this becoming a strong TS/ low-end Cat.1 over the Cape Verde islands.

[AEWspotter]

Latest SHIPS gives us a major hurricane at 96 hours:

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 35 47 60 74 87 96 103 107 107

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _ships.txt

[gatorcane]

18Z Guidance, look at those intensity models

[cycloneye]

00z Guidance. SHIP continues very aggressive on intensity.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC SUN SEP 8 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912013) 20130908 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130908 0000 130908 1200 130909 0000 130909 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 17.6W 13.9N 19.2W 14.3N 21.1W 14.7N 23.3W
BAMD 13.5N 17.6W 13.9N 19.5W 14.3N 21.5W 14.5N 23.6W
BAMM 13.5N 17.6W 14.1N 19.5W 14.6N 21.7W 15.2N 24.1W
LBAR 13.5N 17.6W 14.1N 19.6W 15.3N 22.0W 16.4N 24.5W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130910 0000 130911 0000 130912 0000 130913 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 25.8W 15.7N 30.6W 15.6N 33.3W 17.6N 31.2W
BAMD 14.8N 25.7W 15.6N 29.3W 17.5N 31.8W 20.0N 33.1W
BAMM 15.5N 26.6W 15.6N 31.0W 15.6N 33.0W 17.9N 31.3W
LBAR 17.8N 27.1W 20.9N 31.5W 23.9N 34.0W 26.2N 33.1W
SHIP 57KTS 84KTS 103KTS 109KTS
DSHP 57KTS 84KTS 103KTS 109KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 17.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 16.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 14.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 110NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Cyclenall]

Latest SHIPS gives us a major hurricane at 96 hours:

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 35 47 60 74 87 96 103 107 107

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _ships.txt

I remember when the SHIPS intensity output said a moderate category 2 hurricane and the tropical wave didn't even become a TD. It pretty much flopped within a day. I hope the same is true here.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

For pure entertainment and reading material only. Will actually believe it when I see it and these systems prove otherwise.

[Gustywind]

For pure entertainment and reading material only. Will actually believe it when I see it and these systems prove otherwise.

agree, with that. The better do to is to wait and see what really happens.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

What we have to keep in mind is that the LGEM and SHIPS are run as if we already have a developed tropical cyclone. If that were true, then sure, this would have the possibility of becoming as strong as they indicate. And completely ignoring that fact, intensity forecasts will suck regardless. Since it will likely take the wave a day or two to organize into a tropical cyclone, the system will not have as much time within the favorable environment to develop as suggested by the two models. Its relatively large size should also keep it from intensifying as quickly as suggested. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a low-end hurricane at peak intensity before it enters cooler waters in 5-6 days.

[gatorcane]

Latest model guidance:

[Dean4Storms]

Many of those intensity models had Gabrielle becoming a hurricane in a much more moist environment and we saw the results. It might become a hurricane but I'll be surprised if it doesn't struggle.

[gatorcane]

Here is the strongest the 12Z GFS has this for this last run at 992 MB at 90 hours:

[BigB0882]

A lot of models bend this back West even though it looks like it would still eventually end up out to sea and no threat to the islands or the U.S. (CV, aside). It may need watching though, if the bend does happen and the ridging remains intact, could get interesting.

[gatorcane]

Latest guidance:

[pgoss11]

Pretty confident it's not going anywhere except " up and out".