ATL: HUMBERTO - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013

...HUMBERTO LIKELY TO BEGIN WEAKENING TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 29.2W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.2 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013

THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME EVIDENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
HURRICANE. DVORAK-BASED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB HAVE NOT YET DECREASED...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
75 KT. HUMBERTO SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. LATER ON...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TRAVERSE
WARMER WATERS WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX A LITTLE. THUS...THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST HINTS AT
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING BY LATE IN PERIOD. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO COULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN INDICATED
HERE AT DAYS 4-5.

THE NORTHWARD MOTION CONTINUES...AT 350/12 KT. A LARGE MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES SHOULD
CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE RIGHT
WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THE
NEW TRACK GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 23.1N 29.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 24.1N 30.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.2N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 26.0N 34.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 26.8N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 28.8N 40.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 30.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 33.0N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013

...HUMBERTO REMAINING A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 29.7W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.7 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME RATE OF FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT HUMBERTO WILL
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA


HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013

MICROWAVE IMAGERY...FROM METOP AND SSMIS...INDICATE THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS BECOMING DISLOCATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
HUMBERTO. SO WHILE THE HURRICANE IS STILL PRODUCTING QUITE COLD
CLOUD TOPS...WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM HAS APPARENTLY BEGUN. THE
INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WITH THE LOWER ADT. A
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO GROW LARGER...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTENDING OUT ALMOST 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISPLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION IS BEING CAUSED BY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF OVER 30 KT...PRIMARILY
DUE TO A RATHER ROBUST TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF HUMBERTO. THIS STRONG SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMICS...SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING. AT THE LONGER
TIME RANGE...THE SHEAR IS PREDICTED TO LESSEN DUE TO THE FILLING OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE HUMBERTO ALSO REACHES WARMER WATERS. THE
GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THIS REDUCTION IN SHEAR WILL OCCUR IN ABOUT
THREE DAYS...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL WAITS UNTIL FOUR OR EVEN FIVE
DAYS FOR THIS TO OCCUR. THIS DIFFERENCE LEADS TO SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH OF A CYCLONE WILL REMAIN AND WHETHER IT
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RE-INTENSIFY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS IN THE FIRST THREE DAYS AND BELOW IT THEREAFTER.

HUMBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING AT 10 KT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...AS IT
IS PROGRESSING THROUGH A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN ABOUT A
DAY...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE REBUILDS NEAR THE AZORES AND
SHOULD ABRUPTLY TURN HUMBERTO TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. BY DAY
FIVE...HUMBERTO SHOULD BE ROUNDING THIS RIDGE AND BEGINNING
RECURVATURE. THE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...BUT ARE
SOMEWHAT FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LAST ADVISORY AND AN AVERAGE OF
THE GFS/ECMWF/FIM GLOBAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 23.4N 29.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 24.4N 30.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 25.3N 32.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 26.2N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 27.4N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 29.5N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 31.5N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 34.5N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

HUMBERTO IS ON A WEAKENING TREND...AND IT IS BARELY HANGING ON TO
HURRICANE STATUS. LATEST GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS LOSING ORGANIZATION...AND
MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD
PATTERN IS DUE TO 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH AN
AVERAGE OF THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT...AND THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE LEFT AS THE
STEERING FLOW IS BECOMING MORE DOMINATED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10.
A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN HUMBERTO MOVES INTO A PRONOUNCED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE
HUMBERTO REMAINS OVER 25-26C WATERS AND MOVES INTO EVEN STRONGER
SHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO LESSEN WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THESE MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO RE-INTENSIFY. IN
ADDITION...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW HUMBERTO DEEPENING IN 3
TO 5 DAYS WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS.
THE NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 24.4N 30.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 25.2N 31.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 26.0N 33.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 27.1N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 28.2N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 30.3N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 32.5N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 35.5N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

For the record,the 11 AM advisory.


TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

VERTICAL SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON HUMBERTO. ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION...LEAVING AN
EXPOSED CENTER WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MESOVORTICES. THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS LOWERED TO 55 KT...BASICALLY AS FAST AS THE DVORAK
CONSTRAINTS ALLOW. FURTHER WEAKENING SEEMS PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SSTS.
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS...WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
STORM WILL UNDERGO A TROUGH INTERACTION IN THE LONG RANGE...LEAVING
IT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME EVEN STRONGER. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING
THE FIRST 36 HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE RATHER STRONG
SHEAR FORECAST. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE NHC FORECAST IS A
LITTLE HIGHER...BUT IS STILL BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9. A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OF HUMBERTO IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY DAYS 4-5
WHILE IT RECURVES AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HOW FAST THE STORM
ACCELERATES INTO THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHICH DEPENDS ON
WHAT PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE NEW NHC PREDICTION WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR
THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 24.7N 31.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 25.4N 32.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 26.3N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 27.4N 37.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 28.5N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 30.7N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 32.8N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 36.5N 44.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO REDEVELOP NEAR HUMBERTO IN
THE FACE OF SOME RATHER STRONG SHEAR. DVORAK CONSTRAINTS SUGGEST
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT...THOUGH THIS COULD BE REFINED
A BIT AFTER THE NEXT SCATTEROMETER PASS. AN EXTREMELY LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS CONTINUING TO SHEAR
HUMBERTO. THIS SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HUMBERTO DROP TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT SOME POINT DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE STORM WILL FIND A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...AND MOST OF THE RELIABLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HUMBERTO AS A HURRICANE AGAIN BY DAY 5. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN REDUCED IN THE SHORTER TERM...BUT IS
KEPT THE SAME AT THE END.

THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER TO THE LEFT...NOW 290/10.
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE A STRONG RIDGE STEERS THE STORM BASICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAST HUMBERTO
RECURVES OUT TO SEA...WITH THE GFS/GEFS SUGGESTING A MUCH FASTER
TRACK THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED IN THAT WAY...FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 25.0N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 25.4N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 26.3N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 27.3N 38.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 28.2N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 30.4N 43.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 32.5N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 36.0N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

...HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 33.0W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.0 WEST. HUMBERTO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...RE-STRENGTHENING BACK INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN
THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

ALTHOUGH HUMBERTO HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN
10 HOURS...A 13/2307Z ASCAT-B OVERPASS INDICATED WINDS OF 37-38 KT
NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE MISSING THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE
STRONGER WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN PRESENT. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS
ONLY LOWERED TO 40 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ONE MORE ADVISORY CYCLE. HOWEVER...INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT ALONG WITH SUB-26C SSTS
SHOULD COMBINE TO CAUSE HUMBERTO TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. HUMBERTO IS THEN
FORECAST TO REMAIN A REMNANT LOW FOR ABOUT 60-72 HOURS...AT WHICH
TIME THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SHARPLY WHILE THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING OVER 28C SSTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR REGENERATION BACK INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 3...WITH HUMBERTO POSSIBLY REGAINING
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 5. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE TREND OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3-5.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08 KT. THERE REMAINS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC
REASONING. HUMBERTO SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THEN GRADUALLY
RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY DAYS 3/4 AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE OFF OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 24.8N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 25.4N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 15/0000Z 26.3N 37.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1200Z 27.2N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 28.2N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z 30.3N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 32.6N 45.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 36.5N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST SAT SEP 14 2013

HUMBERTO IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME...AND IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN
SOON IT WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY. EVEN THOUGH HUMBERTO LACKS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...IT
CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND IT IS LIKELY STILL PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KT...ASSUMING A SPIN DOWN FROM THE
EARLIER ASCAT DATA.

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING HUMBERTO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THAT TIME. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE BY MONDAY...AND ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW
HUMBERTO GAINING STRENGTH IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SOME OF THE EXPECTED
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAVORABLE TROUGH
INTERACTION.

THE STORM IS ON A WESTWARD PATH...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 275/8. A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS
FORECAST WHEN THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
HUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE IN ABOUT 4
DAYS WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON THIS
OVERALL SCENARIO...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE RECURVATURE STAGE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST
AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN
THOSE MODELS AND LIES VERY NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCA AND TV15.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 25.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 25.3N 35.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/0600Z 26.2N 38.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1800Z 27.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 28.1N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z 30.5N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 33.0N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 37.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 14 2013

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...EXPECTED TO REGENERATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 35.4W
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT OF HUMBERTO INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD OCCUR BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HUMBERTO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 14 2013

HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION...BUT HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR
ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...HUMBERTO IS
BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THIS ADVISORY...WITH
WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS. VERY
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...AND A
TRACK OVER MARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN
A CONTINUED GRADUAL SPIN-DOWN OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
POSSIBLY TWO. AFTER THAT...REGENERATION OF HUMBERTO INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEMS LIKELY SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER
WARMER WATERS AND EXPERIENCING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW HUMBERTO INTERACTING WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS INTERACTION COULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR A FASTER
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC
INTENSITY PREDICTION IS KEPT HIGHER INITIALLY ASSUMING A SLOWER
RATE OF DECAY. THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS KEPT THE SAME AND IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/11...
AROUND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. THE
FORWARD MOTION OF HUMBERTO SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN IT MOVES INTO A
WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A STRONG TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES APPROACHING HUMBERTO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS SHOULD LEAD TO A
TURN NORTHEASTWARD WITH ACCELERATION ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE BUT SLOWER ON DAYS 3 TO 5...
LYING IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCA.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HUMBERTO CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 25.4N 35.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 15/0000Z 25.8N 37.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/1200Z 26.7N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0000Z 27.5N 41.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 16/1200Z 28.6N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 17/1200Z 30.9N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 33.7N 44.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 37.5N 41.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST MON SEP 16 2013

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...
...FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WHILE TURNING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 43.2W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST. HUMBERTO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
...TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST MON SEP 16 2013

DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO
HAS BEEN BURSTING DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND THE DISTANCE
BETWEEN THE CONVECTION AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
DECREASING. THE SYSTEM NOW HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO
BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ON HUMBERTO HAVE
BEEN RESTARTED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON
TWO ASCAT PASSES FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS THAT INDICATED WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/06. HUMBERTO IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A COL AREA IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCA AND REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWER AND
MORE-EASTERLY ECWMF AND THE FASTER AND MORE-WESTERLY GFS.

VERY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO
RELAX SOME AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF AND SHIFTS GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OF
THE CYCLONE. THE RELATIVE RELAXATION IN SHEAR FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS...ALONG WITH A TRACK OVER WARMER WATERS...SHOULD
ALLOW HUMBERTO TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ON
DAYS 3-5 IS LIKELY TO SPEED UP THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO HAVE OCCURRED BY DAY 5. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND
LGEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 27.2N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 28.2N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 29.5N 44.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 30.2N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 31.1N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 33.1N 44.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 36.7N 40.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 44.7N 32.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST MON SEP 16 2013

THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CANOPY THAT WAS NEARLY COVERING THE CENTER
EARLIER HAS BEEN SHEARED EASTWARD WHILE THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A FRAGMENT OF A BAND
LIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT IT TOO IS BEING SUBJECTED
TO STRONG SHEAR OF ABOUT 30 KT ACCORDING TO SHIPS/UW-CIMSS
ANALYSES. NEVERTHELESS...A MORNING ASCAT PASS INDICATED AT LEAST
40-KT WINDS ABOUT 60 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE
DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN IN RECENT HOURS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS.

SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE VORTICES HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN
CIRCULATION CENTER OF HUMBERTO TODAY...MAKING AN ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION MORE DIFFICULT THAN NORMAL. A LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF
FIXES SUGGESTS A MOTION OF 300/05. THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY IS NO
DIFFERENT THAN EARLIER. HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS INTO A COL REGION IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
ATLANTIC CANADA. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD UNDERGO
RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO
LIE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA...IN BETWEEN THE
MORE-WESTERLY GFS AND THE MORE-EASTERLY ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THE SHEAR OVER HUMBERTO IS STILL FORECAST TO DECREASE SOME DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST
OF THE STORM SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE RELAXATION OF SHEAR AND WARMER
WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SUGGEST AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER THAT TIME...THE INTERACTION
OF HUMBERTO WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES SHOULD ALLOW
A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
OCCURS BETWEEN DAYS 4-5. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE HIGHER SHIPS OUTPUT AND THE LOWER INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS/LGEM
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF ALL THE GUIDANCE AT LATER
TIMES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 27.3N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 28.4N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 29.5N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 30.4N 45.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 31.2N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 33.5N 44.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 38.0N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 47.0N 30.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST MON SEP 16 2013

HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AND IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 60
NMI TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0000 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF
AROUND 25 KT...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PASS
FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY
LOWERED TO 35 KT...ASSUMING THAT STRONGER WINDS COULD BE OCCURRING
IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...WHICH WAS NOT CAPTURED BY THE ASCAT
DATA.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
IT IS CURRENTLY ENTANGLED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...HOWEVER...AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY
WHEN IT MOVES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AFTER THAT TIME...A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WHEN
THE STORM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR...PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW...ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING HUMBERTO.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN FOR HUMBERTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
RECENT WEAKENING AND TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE. HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 27.0N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 28.0N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 29.0N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 30.0N 45.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 30.9N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 33.7N 43.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 40.0N 37.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 52.0N 26.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

5 AM

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST TUE SEP 17 2013

HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH CYCLES OF HAVING DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR ITS CENTER TO BEING SHEARED WITH ALL THE CONVECTION DISPLACED
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AS OF RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION
HAS RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE
SHEAR MAY BE RELAXING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM
TAFB AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE LOWEST PRESSURE MEASURED BY A
DROPSONDE FROM A RECENT NASA GLOBAL HAWK MISSION WAS 1009 MB WITH A
SURFACE WIND OF 15 KT...INDICATING THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS
PROBABLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.

THE WAXING AND WANING OF CONVECTION HAS CAUSED THE SURFACE CENTER TO
JUMP AND MEANDER FOR THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
THAT HUMBERTO IS NOW MOVING AGAIN...AND A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE
YIELDS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 020/4 KT. THE STORM IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES
AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE RESULTANT STEERING FLOW
IS FORECAST TO PUSH HUMBERTO GENERALLY TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST BEGINNING ON DAY 3 AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER. THE HWRF
IS THE MAIN OUTLIER IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER
MOTION AND A TRACK TO THE EAST BY DAY 5. THE REST OF THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA TO DOWNPLAY
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HWRF SOLUTION.

THE CIRCULATIONS OF HUMBERTO AND A NEARBY MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ARE BECOMING COLLOCATED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR
THE CYCLONE TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. HUMBERTO IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY DAY 4...AND EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER
MUCH COLDER WATER BY THAT TIME...BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES COULD ALLOW
STRENGTHENING TO CONTINUE A BIT LONGER. A 5-DAY POSITION IS STILL
SHOWN FOR CONTINUITY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HUMBERTO COULD BE
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 27.8N 42.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 28.9N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 29.8N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 30.7N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 31.9N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 35.5N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 45.0N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0600Z 54.0N 26.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BERG

11 AM


TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 17 2013

HUMBERTO HAS BEEN WELL OBSERVED BY DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA
GLOBAL HAWK AND ASCAT DATA...WHICH SHOW THAT THE STORM HAS
UNDERGONE AN INTERESTING EVOLUTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND
IS ARGUABLY MORE SUBTROPICAL THAN TROPICAL. OVERNIGHT...THE SYSTEM
WAS CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPOSED CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WIND...ABOUT 130 N MI. THE SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
BEING TRACKED OVERNIGHT DISSIPATED THIS MORNING AND A NEW CENTER
FORMED WELL TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT ALSO
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. WITH THE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM HUMBERTO WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...HOWEVER...THIS VERTICAL STRUCTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. CONSEQUENTLY WE HAVE CHOSEN TO MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL
CLASSIFICATION FOR CONTINUITY AND TO MINIMIZE CONFUSION...AT LEAST
FOR NOW.

THE ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 40 KT.
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE SOME...THEN INCREASE FURTHER IN 3 TO 4
DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.
AS A RESULT...ONLY SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.

BECAUSE OF THE CENTER REFORMATION...A CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION IS
IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT HUMBERTO WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW. IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...HUMBERTO SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN ABOUT 48
HOURS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT HUMBERTO COULD BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS...WITH A SEPARATE EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING ALONG A FRONT OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF
HUMBERTO. FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES BY INDICATING THAT HUMBERTO WILL BECOME THE
MAIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 29.4N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 29.7N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 30.6N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 31.6N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 33.0N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 36.7N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 47.5N 30.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1200Z 60.0N 22.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST TUE SEP 17 2013

HUMBERTO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...AND IT STILL HAS
SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN BAND THAT EXTENDS ABOUT
THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
IS HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS.

THE STORM IS LOCATED DIRECTLY BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED THE SHEAR TO RELAX A LITTLE. THIS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
AND HUMBERTO COULD LOSE SOME OF THE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
WHILE THAT OCCURS. REGARDLESS...THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENTS FAVOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IT LIES ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING
INTO A TROUGH BEFORE THAT OCCURS.

HUMBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS. A SLOWER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDDED IN THE
STRONGER FLOW TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 30.3N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 30.9N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 32.0N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 33.3N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 35.0N 42.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 40.7N 37.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 51.5N 27.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 17 2013

THE TROPICAL STORM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME
FRAGMENTED BANDS ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ELONGATED
CIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE
CONVECTION. AN ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS...
AND 35 KT IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SOME INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND HUMBERTO
REMAINS OVER MARGINAL SSTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS/
LGEM ARE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND SHOW HUMBERTO CLOSE
TO A HURRICANE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT AND FORECAST SSTS FROM
SHIPS SEEM TOO HIGH COMPARED WITH AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS. THUS...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE...
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE SINCE THE
CIRCULATION IS NOT VERY COMPACT...BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 345/6. A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD TURN HUMBERTO TO THE
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE 48-72H PERIOD. MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT
3 DAYS...AND ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGER MID-LATITUDE LOW IN 4-5 DAYS.
THE GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY PACKED AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 30.8N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 31.6N 43.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 32.8N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 34.3N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 36.3N 41.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 43.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z 54.5N 24.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST WED SEP 18 2013

IF I JUST WENT BY THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...I WOULD
PROBABLY DOWNGRADE HUMBERTO TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...
TROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS MIGHT NOT BE PURELY APPLICABLE IN THIS
CASE...AND I WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL WE RECEIVE ADDITIONAL
SUPPORTING DATA BEFORE DECREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY. AN
ARGUMENT COULD ALSO BE MADE THAT MORE DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES
HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND IN SOME SENSE HUMBERTO LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED NOW THAN IT DID LAST EVENING.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...
PARTIALLY BECAUSE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAVE
BEEN MASKING THE LOW CLOUD MOTIONS. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 335/7 KT...BUT HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHWARD VERY SOON BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE AZORES AND A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STORM
SHOULD START FEELING THE EFFECTS OF FASTER MID-LATITUDE FLOW IN A
DAY OR TWO...AND WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC BY 48 HOURS. THE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY NARROW...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
WERE REQUIRED ON THIS CYCLE.

HUMBERTO WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL REGIME IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 48 HOURS...SOME
STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO
COULD BE ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY DAY 4...AND THAT IS
NOW INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 31.4N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 32.2N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 33.6N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 35.1N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 37.1N 41.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 45.0N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST WED SEP 18 2013

HUMBERRTO APPEARS DISORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE MOST CONCENTRATED CONVECTION IS IN BANDS LOCATED ABOUT 150 N MI
EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CELLS
NEAR THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING ELONGATED FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. WATER
VAPOR AND AIRMASS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL
CLOSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH MAY BE HINDERING THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION. WHILE DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...AMSU-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES DURING THE NIGHT
SUGGEST THE CYCLONE IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS THUS HELD...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY..AT 35 KT.

VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS MADE IT EASIER TO FIND THE CENTER...WHICH IS A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW 335/4. HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES. THE SPREAD
OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY NARROW...AND THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THERE IS STILL TIME FOR HUMBERTO TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
CALLING FOR HUMBERTO TO BE A STORM-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72
HOURS...AND THEN BE ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...FAVORED BY THE GFS...ECMWF...
AND CANADIAN MODELS...IS THAT LITTLE STRENGTHENING OCCURS AND THAT
HUMBERTO DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH AS IT ENOUCNTERS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 31.3N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 32.3N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 33.8N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 36.1N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 38.7N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1200Z 51.0N 27.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO...
MAINLY IN SKELETAL BANDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WATER
VAPOR AND AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND THIS MAY BE SLOWING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. RECENT OSCAT DATA
SHOWED A FEW 30-35 KT WIND VECTORS ABOUT 150 N MI FROM THE CENTER
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...RECENT AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CIMSS ARE 37 KT AND 32 KT RESPECTIVELY.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A POSSIBLY
GENEROUS 35 KT.

HUMBERTO HAS MADE ITS EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN WITH THE INITIAL
MOTION NOW 355/5. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES. THE
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS AGAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THERE IS STILL TIME FOR HUMBERTO TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH A FRONTAL ZONE IN
36-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON WHETHER
HUMBERTO WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...OR WHETHER IT WILL
DEGENERATE TO A TROUGH AS ANOTHER LOW BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT
SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
CALLING FOR HUMBERTO TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 HOURS. THAT
BEING SAID...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVOLUTION THERE IS LIKELY TO
BE A STORM-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW NEAR THE 72 HOUR POINT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 31.8N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 33.0N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 34.9N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 37.4N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 41.6N 37.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1800Z 54.0N 23.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013

HUMBERTO IS LOSING ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE-IR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME STRETCHED FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
TAFB SATELLITE ESTIMATE. WHILE THE CYCLONE STILL HAS SOME TIME
OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND IN LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR...THE POOR INITIAL
STRUCTURE WILL LIKELY PREVENT HUMBERTO FROM SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER 24H...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AFTER
ACCOUNTING FOR THE WEAKER INITIAL WINDS...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

SINCE THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 010/8. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HUMBERTO TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATING
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72H. THE NHC PREDICTION WILL GO ALONG WITH
THE ABSORBED SCENARIO...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF
HUMBERTO OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH BEFORE THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 32.5N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 33.7N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 35.7N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 38.6N 38.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 43.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST THU SEP 19 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO IS LIMITED TO A CLUSTER OF
CELLS LOCATED 100-200 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE CYCLONE IS
MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT
IT COULD BE CLOSE TO BECOMING POST-TROPICAL. THE GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARDS SHOWING THE SURFACE WIND FIELD OF HUMBERTO
OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN WE HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS POINTS OUT TO 36 HOURS. IF IT DOES LAST THAT LONG...HUMBERTO
SHOULD ULTIMATELY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE BY 48 HOURS.

A MORE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER HAS FORMED...BUT THAT NOW PUTS
HUMBERTO ABOUT A DEGREE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.
REGARDLESS...THE DEPRESSION IS STILL MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD
AROUND 7 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE WITHIN 24
HOURS AND THEN MAINTAIN THAT HEADING UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE
FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION...BUT
OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 33.0N 44.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 34.5N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 36.3N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 38.6N 38.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST THU SEP 19 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO IS SPUTTERING THIS MORNING
AND BARELY MEETS THE CRITERION NEEDED FOR MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHILE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION...DRY CONDITIONS
AND STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TOWARD THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
ADDITIONALLY...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OF HUMBERTO IN ABOUT A DAY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS HUMBERTO AS A 30 KT CYCLONE UNTIL
DISSIPATION...AS INDICATED BY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HUMBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH A LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATED AT 25
DEGREES AT 5 KT. HUMBERTO SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
GETS SWEPT UP IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
ONE IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL TRACK
ENSEMBLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 32.8N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 34.2N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 36.8N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA