ATL: HUMBERTO - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 20.7W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON MONDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH


TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA HAS DEVELOPED
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE
TO A LITTLE BIT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/9 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
THE AZORES...AND THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AND A RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
FROM AFRICA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN RATHER
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 48 HOURS AND CONTINUE THAT
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURPRISINGLY...
THE LARGEST SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE OCCURS WITHIN THE FIRST
48 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE MODELS SEEMS TO CONVERGE BY 72 HOURS. THE
NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

A MOIST AIR MASS...WARM WATERS...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR SHOULD
ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN AT LEAST GRADUALLY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS...MAINLY THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE AFTER 24 HOURS. SHIPS AND LGEM HAVE TENDED TO
HAVE A HIGH BIAS THIS HURRICANE SEASON...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS KEPT A BIT LOWER. THE FORECAST DOES...HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE THE
CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.

GIVEN THE FORECAST...AND THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW BIG THE WIND FIELD
WILL GET ONCE THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 13.1N 20.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 13.2N 22.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 13.5N 24.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 13.9N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 14.5N 27.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 17.5N 29.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 21.0N 31.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 23.5N 32.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
800 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013

...RAIN BANDS APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 21.4W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF PRAIA CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON MONDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 21.9W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF PRAIA CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON MONDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. RECENT ASCAT DATA WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL
IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS STILL LOCATED NEAR
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DUE TO SOME
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE ASCAT DATA AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM
WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 30 KT.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...CURRENTLY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
TO DROP SOUTHWARD...CREATING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE ALONG 30W. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN 36 TO 48
HOURS AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON THAT GENERAL HEADING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...BUT AFTER
THAT TIME...THERE IS A BIT MORE SPREAD THAN NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
CYCLE. THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A
NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK ALONG OR EAST OF 30W...WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWS A FASTER NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT
DAYS 4 AND 5. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THESE
DIFFERENCES AND REMAINS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. DURING THAT TIME...THE
DEPRESSION WILL BE IN A MOIST AIRMASS AND OVER WARM WATERS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE UPDATED NHC
FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. LATE
IN THE PERIOD... INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 13.2N 21.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 13.4N 23.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 13.7N 25.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 14.2N 27.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 15.2N 28.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 18.5N 30.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 22.0N 31.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 23.7N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[supercane]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
200 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013

...DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 22.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SE OF PRAIA CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS
OF MAIO AND PRAIA THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/al09/al092013.public_a.002.shtml?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 22.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.8 WEST. HUMBERTO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND PASS WEST OF THESE
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND HUMBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS
OF MAIO AND PRAIA THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE ISLANDS.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN



TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...DEEP CONVECTION WITH A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY WEST THROUGH NORTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS HAVING RECENTLY
FORMED VERY NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 35 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND A 34-KT ADT ESTIMATE. AS A
RESULT...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED HUMBERTO. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE SOME MODEST
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS RESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING AT 280/10 KT...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTERWARDS...THE GLOBAL
AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ERODING THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES SOUTHEASTWARD TO
WESTERN AFRICA. THIS RADICAL CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE HUMBERTO TO MAKE A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST IN 36-48 HOURS AND MAINTAIN THAT MOTION THROUGH 96
HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RE-BUILD TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE AND TURN HUMBERTO WESTWARD OVER HIGHER LATITUDES AND
COOLER WATER. THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE MADE A SIGNIFICANT
SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS
SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AS A RESULT...BUT NOT AS FAR TO THE RIGHT AS
SOME OF THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS LIKE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FSSE.

MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 12 KT IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
MODELS TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 8 KT AND REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST
72 HOURS. SUCH WEAK SHEAR CONDITIONS EXISTING WITHIN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C WOULD TEND
TO FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEVELOP AN IMPRESSIVE 200 MB CYCLONIC OUTDRAFT PATTERN BY 72
HOURS...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE. AS A RESULT...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WAS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 72
HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE SINCE HUMBERTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C
SSTS AT THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT HUMBERTO COULD
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED PRIOR TO THE 72-HOUR TIME PERIOD. BY
DAYS 4 AND 5...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS
SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 13.4N 22.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 13.6N 24.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 14.1N 26.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 14.9N 27.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 16.2N 28.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 20.0N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 23.5N 30.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 25.2N 33.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
800 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013

...RAINBANDS FROM HUMBERTO MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 23.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF PRAIA CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.3 WEST.
HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND PASS WEST OF THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
HUMBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFFECTING THE ISLANDS
OF MAIO AND SANTIAGO...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS
OF FOGO AND BRAVA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE ISLANDS.

RAINFALL...HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[SeGaBob]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013

...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 24.1W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF FOGO CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.1 WEST.
HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM TO
THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE ISLANDS.

RAINFALL...HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH



TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HUMBERTO STILL HAS AN
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY TWO ASCAT
PASSES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO
INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 KT. THIS
ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB.

HUMBERTO IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG AZORES HIGH AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE 280/10 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...GIVING WAY TO TWO CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS THAT WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD BY DAY
3. AFTER THAT TIME...HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS NEAR THE
AZORES...FORCING HUMBERTO TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY
5. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE FIRST 48
HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGE WITH THE GFS...FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE...GFDL...AND HWRF INDICATING A SHARPER TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH. THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO ABATE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THE THERMODYNAMICS APPEAR
SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING...BUT THAT IS COUNTERED BY THE
HWRF...GFDL...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE WHICH EITHER DO NOT OR
JUST BARELY MAKE HUMBERTO A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS JUST A TAD HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS UNCHANGED FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 13.6N 24.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 13.9N 25.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 14.5N 27.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 15.5N 28.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 17.3N 29.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 21.5N 30.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 24.5N 31.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 26.0N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
200 PM AST MON SEP 09 2013

...HUMBERTO CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 24.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF BRAVA CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.8 WEST.
HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM TO
THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. STRONGER
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE ISLANDS.

RAINFALL...HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST MON SEP 09 2013

...HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 25.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.3 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND HUMBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST MON SEP 09 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
HUMBERTO IS SHOWING MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING...AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED BENEATH THE COLD CLOUD TOPS.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND
T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...AND THE LATEST SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN IS 47 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT.

HUMBERTO APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING A BIT FASTER TO THE WEST...AND
THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11 KT. THE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...ALLOWING HUMBERTO TO
TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ANOTHER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE AZORES AND
FORCE HUMBERTO TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5. THE
NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS DUE TO AN OVERALL
EASTWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

HUMBERTO CONTINUES ON A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TREND...AND CONDITIONS
FAVOR THIS INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW
CYCLES...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOWING THE MOST
STRENGTHENING AND THE HWRF AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BARELY BRINGING
HUMBERTO TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
THEREFORE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A PEAK
IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS BEFORE HUMBERTO
REACHES COLDER WATER AND CONTENDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR.

HUMBERTO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THEREFORE...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 13.7N 25.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 14.1N 26.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 14.8N 28.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 16.1N 28.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 18.2N 29.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 22.5N 30.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 25.5N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 26.5N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST MON SEP 09 2013

...HUMBERTO STILL STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 25.9W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.9 WEST. HUMBERTO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST MON SEP 09 2013

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF HUMBERTO REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE
MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS OVER THE CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH RECENT
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO
EXPAND OUTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STORM. THE ASCAT
DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 50
KT...AND THAT THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAS ALSO
EXPANDED SINCE THIS MORNING.

SATELLITE CENTER FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO
IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY...WITH A MOTION OF
285/9 KT. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN VERY SOON AS A COUPLE OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOWS MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND A
GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 72
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE
WILL REBUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES AND THIS SHOULD TURN
HUMBERTO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER HUMBERTO SHOULD DECREASE
SOON...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. THE
MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS HUMBERTO TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT STILL IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME
QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 13.9N 25.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 14.4N 27.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 15.4N 28.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 16.9N 28.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 19.1N 29.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 23.0N 30.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 25.2N 32.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 26.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Extratropical94]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

...HUMBERTO ON A STRENGTHENING TREND...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 26.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.6 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...
AND HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE CENTER...INDICATING THAT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T3.5 AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE ABOUT
THE SAME. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 55 KT.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT...AND THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STORM MOTION IS DUE TO A BREAK DOWN
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CAUSED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
ANOTHER LOW BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. A SHARP
WESTWARD TURN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 4 DAYS WHEN THE RIDGE
BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED HEADING CHANGES...AND THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36
HOURS WHILE HUMBERTO REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW WIND SHEAR AND HIGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR AND SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING HUMBERTO. THESE UNFAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH COOLER SSTS SHOULD CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO BEGIN WEAKENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT
TERM AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 14.4N 26.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 15.0N 27.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 16.2N 28.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 17.9N 28.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 20.0N 29.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 23.7N 30.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 25.5N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 26.0N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 27.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.7 WEST. HUMBERTO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
AND HUMBERTO SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS STOPPED INTENSIFYING...
AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED THAT THE
STORM HAD A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT FEATURE HAS
SINCE DISSOLVED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A LARGER BUT BROKEN INNER
BAND OF CONVECTION. IN SOME SENSE...THIS SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT...EXCEPT THAT HUMBERTO IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

HUMBERTO HAS MAINTAINED A MOTION OF 295/8 KT...BUT THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY DUE TO A WEAKENING
AZORES HIGH TO THE NORTH. TWO DEEP-LAYERED LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTH AFRICA...SHOULD STEER HUMBERTO
NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD
NORTH OF HUMBERTO BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST IS HIGH SINCE THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WERE
REQUIRED ON THIS CYCLE.

ONCE THE INNER CORE OF HUMBERTO REORGANIZES...THERE IS A WINDOW OF
ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE VERTICAL
SHEAR INCREASES AND THE STORM REACHES A MORE HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HUMBERTO
REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY...BUT THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY IN A DAY OR TWO HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD JUST A BIT
BASED ON THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 14.6N 27.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.3N 28.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 16.6N 29.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 18.5N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 20.5N 29.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 23.5N 31.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 24.5N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 25.0N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

...HUMBERTO ALMOST A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 28.1W
ABOUT 245 MI...400 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.1 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND HUMBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
HAS BEEN EXPANDING WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.0/65 KT AND T3.5/55 KT...
RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 60 KT. THE MAIN
IMMEDIATE NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF HUMBERTO THAT MAY
BE GETTING INTO THE INNER CORE...BUT OTHERWISE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR
AND WARM WATERS FAVOR AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR ANOTHER 36
HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...HUMBERTO WILL BE STRADDLING THE 26C
SST ISOTHERM...BUT IT WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
20-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. WEAKENING IS THEREFORE
ANTICIPATED AFTER DAY 2. THE INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE
ON A PEAK INTENSITY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 70 AND 80 KT...WITH THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS IT WAS YESTERDAY.
SUBSEQUENTLY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

HUMBERTO HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 310/7
KT. THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS NOW WEAKENING...AND THE
EVOLVING PATTERN WILL ALLOW HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 36 HOURS.
THEN...JUST AS SHARPLY AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE TURNING NORTHWARD...
IT WILL TURN SHARPLY WESTWARD BY DAY 5 WHEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
REBUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA...AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 15.0N 28.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 15.9N 28.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 17.6N 29.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 19.6N 29.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 21.5N 29.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 24.0N 31.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 24.5N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 24.5N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

...HUMBERTO REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 28.4W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.4 WEST. HUMBERTO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA



TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

AN EYE HAS BEEN SHOWING UP INTERMITTENTLY THIS EVENING IN
HUMBERTO...BUT HAS NOT PERSISTED. MOREOVER...THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC AND IS NOT MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST CONTINUOUSLY. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB HAVE REMAINED THE SAME OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS...AVERAGING AT 60 KT...WHILE ADT AND CIMSS AMSU SUGGEST A
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER CYCLONE. IN DEFERENCE TO THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSES AND THE INTERMITTENT EYE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 60 KT. WHILE NO NEW ASCAT OBSERVATIONS WERE AVAILABLE...A
2240Z CIRA AMSU SIZE ANALYSIS SUGGESTED A SLIGHTLY LARGER RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WHICH HAS BEEN SO ADJUSTED.

HUMBERTO SHOULD STILL REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY...AS IT HAS ABOUT
24-36 HOURS TO GO WHILE TRAVERSING LUKEWARM WATER AND AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BUT IN ABOUT 36-48
HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO
HUMBERTO APPROACHING CLOSER TO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME THE SSTS SHOULD DROP TO A COOLISH 25-26C.
GRADUAL...IF NOT RAPID...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN DAYS 2 AND
4. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE NHC
PREDICTION MIRRORS THIS AND IS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING AT ABOUT 6 KT TOWARD 315 DEGREES...PRIMARILY DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. WITH THE
RIDGE WEAKENING...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT A DAY
AND CONTINUE THIS MOTION FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. AROUND DAY
3...HUMBERTO SHOULD TURN AGAIN...THIS TIME TOWARD THE WEST...AS A
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN NEAR THE AZORES. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FIM GLOBAL
MODELS...AND IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH
48 HOURS AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH THEREAFTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 15.4N 28.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 16.4N 28.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 18.3N 29.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 20.2N 29.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 21.7N 29.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 23.5N 32.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 24.0N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 24.5N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[Extratropical94]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

...HUMBERTO BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 28.9W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.9 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HUMBERTO COULD STRENGTHEN MORE TODAY
BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY STARTS ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH HUMBERTO DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
CYCLONE ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 6Z
SUPPORTED ANYTHING FROM 55-65 KT...AND GIVEN THE NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 65 KT. HUMBERTO
HAS ABOUT A DAY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND
COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. IN A FEW DAYS...
ALTHOUGH WATER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR
AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE CYCLONE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE WELL
CLUSTERED...SO THE LATEST NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

HUMBERTO APPEARS TO BE TURNING TO THE RIGHT...NOW MOVING 330/7. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH SOON AND ACCELERATE SOME WHILE IT
MOVES BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN AFRICA AND A TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...HUMBERTO IS
LIKELY TO TAKE A HARD LEFT TURN DUE TO IT RUNNING AGAINST A RATHER
STOUT RIDGE IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. WITH HUMBERTO
BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM IN THE LONGER RANGE...IT MAKES SENSE
TO STAY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...STAYING EQUATORWARD OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 16.0N 28.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 17.2N 29.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 19.0N 29.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 20.9N 29.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 22.5N 30.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 23.8N 33.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 24.2N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 25.5N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Extratropical94]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

...HUMBERTO MAKES THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 29.1W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE APPARENT EYE OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.1 WEST.
HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY
AND THURSDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN REVEALING AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED EYE...
WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED AT THE MID-LEVELS ON A SSMI/S PASS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BEEN APPARENT WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WHICH IS SURROUNDED BY A COUPLE OF DISTINCT
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN HAVE REACHED 4.4 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
ON THIS BASIS..THE INITIAL INTENSITY AS BEEN SET AT 70 KNOTS.

HUMBERTO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE IT
REACHES COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AS
DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN AS INDICATED IN THE NHC
FORECAST.

AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...HUMBERTO HAS MADE THE EXPECTED SHARP TURN
TO THE NORTH...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS BEEN STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE OVER AFRICA. IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
HUMBERTO WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS
PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS IS THE GENERAL SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY
PROVIDED BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT
SCENARIO AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS TRACK
WILL KEEP HUMBERTO MOVING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 16.7N 29.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 18.2N 29.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 20.0N 29.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 21.5N 30.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 23.0N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 24.0N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 24.5N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 26.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013

...HUMBERTO MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH 85
MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 29.0W
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.0 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER THAT TIME.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON IN BOTH MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. THE
EYE...ALTHOUGH RAGGED AND INTERMITTENT...IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
THE CENTER PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON
THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 75
KNOTS. HUMBERTO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE
BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR IN ABOUT A DAY.
AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR
350 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND A RIDGE OVER AFRICA. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE LOW TO WEAKEN AND HUMBERTO WILL ENCOUNTER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE
HUMBERTO TO MAKE A HARD LEFT TURN AND THIS SCENARIO IS UNANIMOUSLY
SHOWN BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO WILL
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 18.0N 29.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 19.5N 29.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 21.3N 29.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 22.8N 30.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 24.0N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 24.5N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 25.5N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 27.0N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013

...HURRICANE HUMBERTO MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 29.0W
ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.0 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THE HURRICANE SHOULD
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY AT ABOUT THE SAME RATE OF
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA


HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013

THE LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF HUMBERTO IS EXHIBITING QUITE
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH A SMALL EYE INTERMITTENTLY APPEARING. DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT ABOUT
75 KT...WHILE ADT IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND CIMSS AMSU SLIGHTLY LOWER.
THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS REMAINS AT 75 KT. A DIRECT HIT BY AN ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE AT 2250Z PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THAT
HUMBERTO IS LARGER IN ITS TROPICAL STORM AND 50-KT WIND RADII THAN
EARLIER ESTIMATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE CDO AND
INDEPENDENT ANALYSES FROM CIRA AMSU SIZE VALUES.

CURRENTLY...HUMBERTO HAS BEEN TRAVERSING OVER WATERS OF 26C AND
THROUGH AN ATMOSPHERE OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS WELL AS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. IT APPEARS...HOWEVER...THAT HUMBERTO MAY BE
AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. AS HUMBERTO TRACKS NORTHWARD THEN WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL APPROACH A STRONG
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINNING IN ABOUT
A DAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
HOSTILE SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING.
THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSEST TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND CLOSEST TO THE DECAY-SHIPS STATISTICAL MODEL
THEREAFTER. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS BY THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT
HUMBERTO MAY ATTEMPT A COMEBACK STARTING AROUND DAY 5...BUT IT IS
QUITE UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE REMAINING AT
THAT TIME AFTER EXPERIENCING SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR FOR NEARLY
FOUR DAYS.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING DUE NORTH AT 11 KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
STEERING INDUCED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST AFRICA TO ITS EAST.
IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
AZORES AND FORCE HUMBERTO TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE TRACK PREDICTION IS
NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 19.1N 29.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 20.7N 29.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 22.3N 29.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 23.5N 31.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 24.2N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 25.2N 37.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 26.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 27.5N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[Extratropical94]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013

...HUMBERTO MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH WHILE CONTINUING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 28.7W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.7 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TODAY...WITH A FASTER
RATE OF WEAKENING LIKELY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HUMBERTO REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...WITH THE
CYCLONE MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST COMPRISED
OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AND OCCASIONAL HINTS OF A WARM SPOT OR EYE. THE
OUTER CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED
BANDS...AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA IN THE LAST FEW HOURS SUGGEST THAT THE
STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC
AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME DETERIORATION OF THE EYEWALL JUST RECENTLY.
THESE DEVELOPMENTS SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO MAY HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T4.5 FROM
TAFB AND SAB...AND ADT VALUES ARE RUNNING AROUND 4.5. ON THIS
BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KT.

HUMBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY NORTHWARD...005/12....AND A
NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
AFTER THAT...A WEAKENING HUMBERTO SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN BETWEEN A BLOCKING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE WEST UNTIL ABOUT DAY 4. BY DAY 5...HUMBERTO SHOULD REACH A
REGION OF WEAK STEERING AND SLOW DOWN WHILE IT TURNS NORTHWARD OR
PERHAPS EVEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
ADVANCING ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE
RIGHT THIS CYCLE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOW FAST AND IN WHAT
DIRECTION THE CYCLONE IS STEERED LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS MORE UNCERTAIN
THAN NORMAL AT THE MOMENT.

EVEN THOUGH HUMBERTO IS ALREADY OVER WATERS LESS THAN 26C...
SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE ALLOWED THE
CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED SOON AS
A RESULT OF INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AMPLITUDE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR. SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO GREATER THAN 40 KT IN 2-3 DAYS
WHILE HUMBERTO IS STILL OVER COOL WATERS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A RESILIENT HUMBERTO...PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE LARGE
SIZE OF ITS CIRCULATION...SURVIVING TO REACH WARMER WATERS BY DAY
4. SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD AND POTENTIAL
INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MIGHT ALLOW
FOR SOME RE-STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN
IN THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD AND LIES IN BETWEEN THE LOWER SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSMBLE OUTPUT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 20.5N 28.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 22.0N 29.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 23.5N 30.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 24.5N 31.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 25.1N 33.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 26.1N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 27.3N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 28.5N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013

...HUMBERTO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 29.0W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.0 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TODAY...WITH A FASTER
RATE OF WEAKENING LIKELY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
THE SYSTEM...HUMBERTO REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CONTINUED
HINTS OF A BANDING-TYPE EYE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE
WARMER WATERS WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE...THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
STRONG...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR THE LOW END OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AND LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST DSHIPS AND LGEM PREDICTIONS.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE...OR
360/13. A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AZORES SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH WHILE A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD FROM ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BY THIS TIME...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A WEAKENING STEERING
CURRENT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

A RECENT ASCAT OVER PASS REVEALED A SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER HURRICANE
THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATED...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
ACCORDINGLY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 21.8N 29.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 23.3N 29.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 24.6N 31.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 25.4N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 26.0N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 27.5N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 29.0N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 31.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH