WPAC: INVEST 95W

[Extratropical94]

East of Guam

[Typhoon Hunter]

This is going to be the next MAJOR player in the Wpac if the models are to be believed. Per GFS we should have a named storm on our hands within about 48hrs.

[mrbagyo]

This is going to be the next MAJOR player in the Wpac if the models are to be believed. Per GFS we should have a named storm on our hands within about 48hrs.

yup, and it certainly looks healthier than the CPAC import (93w)

[euro6208]

been having heavy rains passing through my island...some parts of guam have flooded...more is ecpected as this passes to our north...

[Hurricane_Luis]

View of the whole West Pacific, With invests labelled.

Invest 95W is in the Middle.

[euro6208]

moderate to high chance for development...SCS invest about the same but less impressive than 95W...

[euro6208]

12Z GFS showing a 962 mb typhoon as it slams okinawa then turns to the southwest towards taiwan...

[Extratropical94]

Upgraded to medium from low.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4N
149.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 148.6E, APPROXIMATELY 257 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS, THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS REMAINED STRONG, BUT HAS
BEGUN TO BROADEN AND ELONGATE ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF GUAM. MODERATE
TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS) REMAINS OVER THE AREA
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[alan1961]

12Z GFS showing a 962 mb typhoon as it slams okinawa then turns to the southwest towards taiwan...

Yes that looks ominous if the 12GFS pans out

[Typhoon Hunter]

Euro actually developing this now too, shock horror!! Slams it into Kyushu and stalls out over the island. Anywhere between Tokyo and Taiwan is going to have to watch the development of this system very carefully!

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5N
148.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 146.5E, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS, THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS REMAINED STRONG, BUT HAS
BEGUN TO BROADEN AND ELONGATE ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF GUAM. MODERATE
TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS) REMAINS OVER THE AREA
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Typhoon Hunter]

GFS really has swung west in 00z run, Ryukus and Taiwan would be severely raked if this came off:



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[RobWESTPACWX]

A video I put together on this earlier today, just showing different models and expressing my thoughts. I truly think this will be a large storm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9GzI1k73c4

[Extratropical94]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 18N 152E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 13N 140E ALMOST STATIONARY.

Which one of those is 95W?

[Dave C]

The tropical depression. the other one(96w) is sw of Guam. Looks like a slow developer.

[euro6208]

convection seems to have diminished...probrably suffering from DMIN...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N
146.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 147.3E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING WITH NO IMPROVEMENTS IN STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A
100333Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TROUGHING THROUGHOUT THE AREA
AND HINTS AT A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO FORM
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS) AND FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE OUT OF THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.2N
147.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 139.2E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES WEAKENED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING AND NO STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
POORLY ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH NO DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME MORE ELONGATED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS) WITH MODERATE
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.