ATL: INGRID - Models

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Tireman4
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#421 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:20 am

Well, I am done. That is it. We are totally not getting anything ( maybe showers). Bring on the cold fronts. Time to chill the Dark Lord of Summer. LOL. Back on topic, yep, looking like Mexico...
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#422 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:20 am

Time to start looking for the first night of lows in the 50's :lol: .
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#423 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:27 am

Thru 5 days the 12zGFS has a bulls eye of 20+ inches of Rain in NE Mexico just south of the Rio Grande Valley..

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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#424 Postby Portastorm » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:28 am

The loud noise you hear is dozens of depressed and dry-as-a-bone Texans filing out the back door of the auditorium, realizing there's no show to be seen.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#425 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:31 am

Portastorm wrote:The loud noise you hear is dozens of depressed and dry-as-a-bone Texans filing out the back door of the auditorium, realizing there's no show to be seen.



I want my money back. I would like my refund. Sheeesh....:)
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#426 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:33 am

12zNAM has 9+ inches thru 72 hours just SE of Brownsville.

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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#427 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:37 am

Portastorm wrote:The loud noise you hear is dozens of depressed and dry-as-a-bone Texans filing out the back door of the auditorium, realizing there's no show to be seen.


At one point it look so promising that most of Texas was going to get a healthy drink of water...now it looks like South Texas may be the only ones.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#428 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:39 am

Tireman4 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:The loud noise you hear is dozens of depressed and dry-as-a-bone Texans filing out the back door of the auditorium, realizing there's no show to be seen.



I want my money back. I would like my refund. Sheeesh....:)


I don't even need to look at the NHC update or the models for that matter. When I logged on here and saw the board relatively dead, I knew the models were not taking this to Texas :)

Also I guess we see yet another example of why the NAVGEM mode is inferior and using the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF is usually your best bet ;)
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#429 Postby Portastorm » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:53 am

gatorcane wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:The loud noise you hear is dozens of depressed and dry-as-a-bone Texans filing out the back door of the auditorium, realizing there's no show to be seen.



I want my money back. I would like my refund. Sheeesh....:)


I don't even need to look at the NHC update or the models for that matter. When I logged on here and saw the board relatively dead, I knew the models were not taking this to Texas :)

Also I guess we see yet another example of why the NAVGEM mode is inferior and using the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF is usually your best bet ;)


Ha, ha! LOL. :lol: Yeah, there's a lot of truth to what you're saying, gatorcane. You know what is even sadder and more pathetic? I can promise you that many of the Texans on this board will be checking back every hour or two today and maybe even into this evening ... hoping desperately that something with Ingrid has changed! You may not see a lot of action on the thread but I promise you that the "looks" will happen.
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#430 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:07 pm

I am included in the "looking" category. Is the ridge really that strong?? :double: I had so much hope until I looked at the newest NHC track, then this thread.

We have been through so many disappointments and "near hits, yet so far" scenarios these past several years here south Central Texas. Now, I am beginning to wonder if Texas is cursed. Hmmm. :grr: :(

I'm not giving up hope entirely! There is always a chance the shorter days will weaken the Ridge of Death. There I go wishcasting again. :wink:
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#431 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:The loud noise you hear is dozens of depressed and dry-as-a-bone Texans filing out the back door of the auditorium, realizing there's no show to be seen.



I want my money back. I would like my refund. Sheeesh....:)


I don't even need to look at the NHC update or the models for that matter. When I logged on here and saw the board relatively dead, I knew the models were not taking this to Texas :)

Also I guess we see yet another example of why the NAVGEM mode is inferior and using the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF is usually your best bet ;)



actually I have been following the new NAVGEM the whole time and except for one oddball run it has done really well. I seem to recall the GFS keeping Ingrid in the BOC for 7 days in one run.... :wink: ..so I think your assessment of the NAVGEM model is invalid. Furthermore its a pretty safe bet all of us know that the consensus is the most logical solution. We just like looking at different scenarios and have a fun time doing it. I have enjoyed my week and half here.... :)
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#432 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:35 pm

12UKMET is on board with the very heavy rainfall in NE Mexico with Ingrid..

Rainfall forecast from Sunday Morning to Sunday Evening
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Rainfall forecast from Sunday Evening to Monday Morning
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#433 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 13, 2013 1:02 pm

12Z Euro is running. I'll try not to do play by play here unless something unique shows up. At 24 hours storm is moving NE :) Similar to the GFS.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#434 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 13, 2013 1:15 pm

12Z Euro, landfall looks to be right at Tampico in a little under 72 hours. Track is further west and south of 0Z.
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#435 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 1:38 pm

12zUKEMT Text forecast for TS Ingrid...It has it making landfall by Sunday afternoon/evening.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 95.4W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102013



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 13.09.2013 19.4N 95.4W MODERATE

00UTC 14.09.2013 19.3N 95.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.09.2013 20.8N 94.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 15.09.2013 22.5N 95.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 15.09.2013 23.8N 97.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.09.2013 24.7N 98.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 16.09.2013 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
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#436 Postby HurriGuy » Fri Sep 13, 2013 2:28 pm

so when is this forecasted to push north?
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#437 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 13, 2013 4:01 pm

whats interesting on the 12Z CMC......the frontal system absorbs Ingrid and brings her remains right over upper TX coast...lol.....then the CMC spins up another TS in the BOC... :D

wash...rinse...repeat....


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html
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#438 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:48 pm

Interesting segment out of the 5pm discussion from the NHC:

INGRID IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ERRATICALLY FOR THE NEXT
6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST INGRID TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER
TEXAS...INGRID SHOULD MAKE A SHARP LEFT TURN TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO AND THEN MOVE INLAND. THIS IS THE SCENARIO USED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF
INGRID NEVER GETS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#439 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:36 pm

ROCK wrote:whats interesting on the 12Z CMC......the frontal system absorbs Ingrid and brings her remains right over upper TX coast...lol.....then the CMC spins up another TS in the BOC... :D

wash...rinse...repeat....


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html


For once the cmc has become my most favorite model. Hope it outperforms them all. Come on cmc don't let us down :lol:
Last edited by CYCLONE MIKE on Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#440 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:38 pm

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0027 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID (AL102013) 20130914 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130914 0000 130914 1200 130915 0000 130915 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.3N 95.2W 20.2N 96.2W 20.9N 97.7W 21.7N 99.6W
BAMD 19.3N 95.2W 20.5N 95.6W 21.7N 96.5W 22.9N 97.7W
BAMM 19.3N 95.2W 20.4N 95.9W 21.5N 97.2W 22.7N 99.0W
LBAR 19.3N 95.2W 19.9N 95.6W 21.1N 96.2W 22.5N 97.1W
SHIP 50KTS 60KTS 65KTS 70KTS
DSHP 50KTS 60KTS 65KTS 70KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130916 0000 130917 0000 130918 0000 130919 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.1N 101.3W 21.8N 104.0W 21.4N 105.8W 21.4N 106.8W
BAMD 24.2N 99.2W 25.7N 102.6W 26.5N 105.4W 27.9N 106.3W
BAMM 23.6N 100.8W 23.7N 104.6W 23.0N 107.9W 22.6N 110.2W
LBAR 24.0N 98.2W 26.7N 100.4W 29.2N 101.5W 31.8N 100.4W
SHIP 72KTS 72KTS 65KTS 58KTS
DSHP 72KTS 33KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.3N LONCUR = 95.2W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 19.3N LONM12 = 95.2W DIRM12 = 242DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 19.7N LONM24 = 93.8W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 993MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM
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