ATL: INGRID - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXTREME RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 93.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. HOWEVER...A SLOW AND ERRATIC
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 1003
MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
AROUND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

SATELLITE DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS
AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT TIME...A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL PROVIDE SOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
STEERING TO THE CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
THE HWRF.

GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO
FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE...IN
COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL
BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 19.7N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 19.7N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 19.5N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 19.3N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.3N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 20.7N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 22.0N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 93.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.
HOWEVER...A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
AROUND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A
SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
AROUND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION FEATURES A PRIMARY BAND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER THAT HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.
WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATER...MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS INDICATED MOST
STRONGLY BY THE GFS MODEL...WHICH DRIVES THE SHIPS INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A
BIT...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEREFORE
SHOW A MUCH WEAKER CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 270/02. STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SLOW ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT
TIME. BY 72 HOURS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FASTER MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE IN RESPONSE TO THE GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
WEAKER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THE NHC
TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO TVCA...
BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS
STILL ORGANIZING...AND THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE
LARGER THAN USUAL.

THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 19.7N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 94.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 19.4N 94.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 19.8N 94.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 21.5N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 23.0N 98.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 24.0N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES DRIFTING WESTWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH. A SLOW AN ERRATIC
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
AROUND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN RAGGED BANDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
30 KT FROM SAB. THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
FROM MEXICAN BUOYS AND OIL RIGS AT THIS TIME...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
ABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/2. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A CONTINUED
ERRATIC MOTION. AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF A UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER MEXICO AND LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FASTER MOTION THAN IT WAS
PREVIOUSLY...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS
SHOWING LANDFALL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IT IS SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...IT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...
WHICH FORECAST A SMALL LOOP FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION BEFORE
TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
FORECAST THUS REMAINS A LITTLE LARGER THAN USUAL.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS THE SAME 55-KT PEAK INTENSITY AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. NONE
OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY MAKES THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE.

THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 19.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 19.7N 94.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 20.0N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 20.6N 95.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 21.5N 95.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 23.0N 97.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 23.5N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0600Z 24.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Rgv20]

...Tropical Storm Ingrid nearly stationary in the Bay of Campeche...
...Torrential rains expected over eastern Mexico...




summary of 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location... 19.4n 95.4w
about 40 mi...65 km ENE of Veracruz Mexico
maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
present movement...stationary
minimum central pressure... 999 mb...29.50 inches




watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...


none


summary of watches and warnings in effect...


a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coatzacoalcos to Cabo Rojo


a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* north of Cabo Rojo to La Pesca


a Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.


A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.


Interests elsewhere along the coast of eastern Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system.


For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your National meteorological service.




Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Ingrid was
located near latitude 19.4 north...longitude 95.4 west. Ingrid is
nearly stationary and little motion is expected today. A motion
toward the north-northwest should begin late tonight or on
Saturday. On the forecast track...Ingrid will be moving very close
to the coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.


Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.


The latest minimum central pressure estimated from a dropsonde
released by the NOAA gulfstream jet was 999 mb...29.50 inches.




Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...Ingrid is expected to produce 10 to 15 inches of
rain over a large part of eastern Mexico...with isolated amounts
of 25 inches possible...especially in areas of mountainous
terrain. These rains are likely to result in life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.


Wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area later today.




Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...400 PM CDT.


$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...TROPICAL STORM INGRID NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 95.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST. INGRID IS
NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. A MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT OR ON
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE
TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A DROPSONDE
RELEASED BY THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN
SIZE...BUT IT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN ORGANIZATION. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...HOWEVER...REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 45
KNOTS WHEN IT DEPARTED THE CYCLONE...ALONG WITH BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WINDS OF 42 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO
40 KNOTS...AND A NAME HAS BEEN ASSIGNED TO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS QUITE LOW...AND THERE IS A WELL-ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR DECREASES DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
ALTHOUGH THE NHC 48-HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR 55 KT...INGRID COULD BE
A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

AS ANTICIPATED...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OR MOVING
ERRATICALLY. AS SOON AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
TEXAS...AND WHICH HAS THE CYCLONE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
SHIFTS EASTWARD...INGRID WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE HWRF MOVES
THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT A DAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE CYCLONE OVER WATER LONGER.
EVENTUALLY...ALL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO
AND BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND BETWEN 2 AND 3 DAYS.

IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN
MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 19.4N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 19.5N 95.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 20.5N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 21.3N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 22.0N 97.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 23.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...INGRID DRENCHING PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 95.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST. INGRID IS
NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A
NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...INGRID WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

THE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
CAUSING A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR...AND THE CENTER OF INGRID IS LOCATED
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. OVERALL...THERE
HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED
FROM A DROPSONDE FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET EARLIER TODAY WAS 999 MB.
SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX...THE
NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. WE NOTE...HOWEVER...THAT THE STATISTICAL
SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR INGRID TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE
TIME OF LANDFALL.

INGRID IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ERRATICALLY FOR THE NEXT
6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST INGRID TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER
TEXAS...INGRID SHOULD MAKE A SHARP LEFT TURN TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO AND THEN MOVE INLAND. THIS IS THE SCENARIO USED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF
INGRID NEVER GETS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW FROM
BOTH INGRID AND MANUEL WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. AT THIS
TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 19.2N 95.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 19.5N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 20.8N 95.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 21.7N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 22.3N 97.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 22.5N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

Special Advisory


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND INGRID STRONGER...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 95.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA TO A HURRICANE WATCH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. INGRID IS CURRENTLY
STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A
NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...INGRID WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND APPROACH THE COAST IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND INGRID
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 993
MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS STRENGTHENED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO 993 MB...AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS INDICATE THAT THE
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA
FROM MEXICO INDICATE THE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CDO FEATURE AND A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OBSERVED INTENSIFICATION AND NOW SHOWS INGRID REACHING HURRICANE
INTENSITY IN 48 HOURS.

AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED IN
SIZE...AND THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
OUTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST.
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.

AS A RESULT OF THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO
THE INCREASED THREAT OF WINDS...THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW
FROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

NOTE THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE 700 PM
CDT...0000 UTC...INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0000Z 19.2N 95.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 19.5N 95.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 20.8N 95.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 21.7N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 22.3N 97.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 22.5N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...INGRID STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 95.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. INGRID IS
CURRENTLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY SUNDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND APPROACH THE COAST IN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A JOINT U.S. EPA AND MEXICAN GOVERNMENT WEATHER
STATION IN VERACRUZ HARBOR RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 41
MPH...66 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

AFTER STRENGTHENING EARLIER...THE INTENSITY OF INGRID APPEARS TO
HAVE LEVELED OFF. THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BEFORE 00Z WAS 993 MB...AND THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT GOTTEN TOO MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED...LIKELY DUE
TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING OVER THE CYCLONE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT
DATA...AND ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE FLYING INTO INGRID OVERNIGHT.
THE OBSERVED SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN AN IMPEDIMENT TO STEADY
STRENGTHENING...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN IMPROVING
UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS BOTH SHOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH
BEFORE LANDFALL...AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL...
INGRID SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SHOW LITTLE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVES EASTWARD...A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS GENERAL
TREND...THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND
SHARPNESS OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE GFS IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A WIDER TURN WHILE THE HWRF HAS ONE OF THE
TRACKS FARTHEST TO THE LEFT. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
ECMWF. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED WIND THREAT...THE COMBINATION OF THE
MOIST FLOW FROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 19.3N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 20.0N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 21.1N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 21.9N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 22.3N 97.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 22.4N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z 22.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Rgv20]

...Ingrid now drifting north-northeastward...
...Forecast to strengthen and move northward...




summary of 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...19.7n 95.2w
about 75 mi...120 km ENE of Veracruz Mexico
about 170 mi...275 km se of Tuxpan Mexico
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h
present movement...NNE or 015 degrees at 2 mph...4 km/h
minimum central pressure...993 mb...29.32 inches




watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...


none


summary of watches and warnings in effect...


a Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* north of Cabo Rojo to La Pesca


a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coatzacoalcos to Cabo Rojo


a Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.


Interests elsewhere along the coast of eastern Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system.


For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your National meteorological service.




Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 100 am CDT...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Ingrid was
located near latitude 19.7 north...longitude 95.2 west. Ingrid is
drifting toward the north-northeast at 2 mph...4 km/hr. A northward
drift is expected today...followed by a faster motion toward the
northwest by early Sunday...and a turn toward the west-northwest by
late Sunday. On the forecast track...Ingrid will be very close to
the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area during the
next day or so...and approach the coast in the Hurricane Watch area
on Sunday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...
and Ingrid is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km
from the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb...29.32 inches.




Hazards affecting land
----------------------
rainfall...Ingrid is expected to produce 10 to 15 inches of rain
over a large part of eastern Mexico...with isolated amounts of 25
inches possible...especially in areas of mountainous terrain. These
rains are likely to result in life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides.


Wind...tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of
the coast within the Tropical Storm Warning overnight and Saturday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by
late Sunday...with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday
morning.




Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...400 am CDT.


$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...INGRID MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND TURN TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 95.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY. A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
INGRID.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB...29.26 INCHES
IS BASED ON DATA FROM A MEXICAN BUOY.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF COLDER
THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER AND INCREASING OUTER BANDING IN ALL
QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0420 UTC SHOWED
A PARTIAL EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE....ALTHOUGH DATA FROM
THE MEXICAN RADAR IN ALVARADO SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE BEEN
TRANSIENT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND
45 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT...PERHAPS
CONSERVATIVELY...PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

INGRID HAS STARTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 015/3. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN THE WEST AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME NOTABLE
ISSUES OF SPREAD. FIRST...THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR A MORE
NORTHEASTWARD INITIAL MOTION BEFORE THE WESTWARD TURN...WITH BOTH
MODELS LYING TO THE EAST OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK. SECOND...THE
GUIDANCE LANDFALL POINTS IN MEXICO ARE SPREAD FROM TUXPAN TO NORTH
OF LA PESCA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL SPREAD INDICATES A LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT INGRID WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST 15-25 KT OF SHEAR DURING THE FIRST 24
HOURS...WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS LESS SHEAR. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST INGRID TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS...WHILE
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODEL FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND
SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL. SINCE THE CURRENT SHEAR HAS
NOT STOPPED INGRID FROM INTENSIFYING...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALONG WITH SHIPS AND LGEM...AND
MAKES INGRID A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT
THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 19.8N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 20.5N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 21.5N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 22.2N 96.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 22.4N 97.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO
72H 17/0600Z 22.5N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES FIND INGRID A LITTLE
STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 94.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE PLANES NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. INGRID SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL APPROACH THE COAST IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...105
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...INGRID NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 94.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 20.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY. ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL NOT REACH THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA UNTIL MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. INGRID IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT INGRID HAS
INTENSIFIED. THE PEAK WIND REPORTED SO FAR BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE
WAS 76 KNOTS AT 850 MB NORTH OF THE CENTER A FEW MINUTES AGO. ON
THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST VALUES
PROVIDED BY THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

INGRID MOVED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BUT IT IS NOW
MOVING NORTHWARD OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
IN ABOUT A DAY...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE INGRID TO
MOVE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IN 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE WESTWARD
TURN HAS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY TO OCCUR AS INDICATED BY ALL
MODELS...THE TIMING OF THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE COAST OF MEXICO
VARIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE SLOWEST MODEL IS THE GFS WHICH KEEPS
INGRID OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 3 MORE DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF INGRID
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 20.6N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 21.4N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 22.0N 94.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 22.5N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 22.5N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 22.0N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 21.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...INGRID EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 94.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TO THE
WEST IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL
REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND INFORMATION FROM THE METEOROLOGIST
ONBOARD THE NOAA JET SUGGEST THAT AN EYE COULD FORMING. INGRID WILL
LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS... ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...INGRID BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2013 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 94.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR THE GULF COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES...AND FROM SOUTH
OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
COATZACOALCOS TO SOUTH OF TUXPAN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
TOWARD THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
INGRID WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM. NOAA BUOY 42055 LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES...110 KM...
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF INGRID RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BY MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN BY
LATE SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA
OF INGRID UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN EYE FEATURE HAS
BEEN PRESENT INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...AND
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES...INCLUDING THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN...INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. INGRID IS THE SECOND HURRICANE OF
THE 2013 SEASON.

BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...
BEFORE THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
CONSENSUS...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE LGEM/SHIPS MODEL PAIR. NONE OF
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS INGRID TO BECOME AN MAJOR
HURRICANE.

INGRID HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 OR 7 KNOTS AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SOON...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL FORCE
THE HURRICANE TO TURN WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. WHILE
THE THE WESTWARD TURN IS VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR...AS SHOWN BY ALL THE
MODELS...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF LANDFALL. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST MODEL...KEEPING INGRID OVER WATER FOR
ABOUT 60 HOURS OR MORE WHILE THE NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER TO
THE COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVING CREDIT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TURN
INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 21.3N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 22.0N 94.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 22.7N 95.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 22.8N 97.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 22.5N 98.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1800Z 22.0N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1800Z 21.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS INGRID A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 94.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...INGRID WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA ON MONDAY.

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM. NOAA BUOY 42055 LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...100 KM...
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF INGRID RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BY MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN BY
LATE SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...INGRID A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 95.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF
LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES...AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING NORTHWARD FROM BAHIA ALGODONES TO RIO SAN FERNANDO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
INGRID SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE
LANDFALL.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM. NOAA BUOY 42055 LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF INGRID RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY LATE SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA EARLY MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING INGRID THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE
HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE NOAA P-3 REPORTED SEVERAL SFMR
WINDS IN THE 70-75 KT RANGE AFTER CORRECTING FOR THE INFLUENCE OF
RAIN...AND DATA FROM TWO DROPSONDES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT ALSO SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS IN THE 70-75 KT RANGE.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 986 MB IS BASED ON A
DROPSONDE FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...AND THAT
VALUE HAS RISEN A BIT SINCE 00Z. OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
IMPROVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH AN EXPANDING CDO FEATURE.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL...WHICH
WAS ALSO NOTED BY PERSONNEL ON THE NOAA AIRCRAFT.

INGRID HAS INTENSIFIED DESPITE PERSISTENT MODERATE SHEAR...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLER HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSEST
TO THE LGEM MODEL. QUICK WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 72 HOURS.

AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT INGRID IS MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 335/07. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. OVERALL
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THIS
CYCLE...WITH THE LATEST GFS TRENDING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A FASTER MOTION. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED NORTHWARD IN THIS PACKAGE...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE UNTIL
LANDFALL GIVEN THE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE INITIAL MOTION.
THIS ADJUSTMENT PUTS THE NHC FORECAST ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BY THE TIME OF LANDFALL...AND FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AFTER
LANDFALL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTHWARD DIP
IN THE TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.

GIVEN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF
MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO BAHIA
ALGODONES...AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH TO
RIO SAN FERNANDO.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...THE MOIST FLOW
RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS.
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A
SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 22.0N 95.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 22.4N 95.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 23.0N 96.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 23.0N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/0000Z 22.7N 98.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0000Z 22.0N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
100 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 95.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
INGRID SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY LATE SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA EARLY MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON MONDAY...
...BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 95.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
INGRID SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY LATE SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA EARLY MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF INGRID IS SOMEWHAT RAGGED-LOOKING...
THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG DEEP CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS
CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 75 KT. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING INGRID AND WILL SOON PROVIDE MORE PRECISE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE INTENSITY...BUT PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS FROM
THAT AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT INCREASE IN THE
WINDS. INGRID WAS ABLE TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SOME
RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR IN A DAY OR SO...SO SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...A VERY RECENT CENTER FIX FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATES
THAT INGRID HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WITH A MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 315/6. FOLLOWING THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST
AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST HWRF MODEL FORECAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...THE MOIST FLOW
RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS.
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A
SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 22.4N 95.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 22.9N 96.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 23.1N 97.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 23.1N 98.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/0600Z 22.8N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0600Z 22.4N 100.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID CONTINUES A SLOW APPROACH TOWARD THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO...
...HAS NOT STRENGTHENED FURTHER...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 95.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
INGRID SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA EARLY MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY