ATL: INGRID - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID TURNS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 95.8W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A TURN TO
THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF INGRID SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HOWEVER...A LITTLE RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SHORTLY BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN



HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT JUST COMPLETED SEVERAL HOURS OF
INVESTIGATION OF INGRID...AND FOUND LITTLE TO INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE IS STILL A HURRICANE. THE HIGHEST RAIN-CORRECTED SFMR
OBSERVATION WAS 58 KT. A DROPSONDE NORTH OF THE CENTER SPLASHED
WITH 59 KT BUT THE LAYER-AVERAGED SURFACE-ADJUSTED WINDS WERE 53-54
KT. THE PRESSURE IS UP TO 990 MB...AND MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT
THE CENTER IS NEARLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 65 KT. THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS DISRUPTED THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO LESSEN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MODEST AMOUNT OF
RESTRENGTHENING...BUT THIS FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE PAST FEW FIXES POINT-TO-POINT SHOWED A WESTWARD MOTION...BUT A
LONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 290/5. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WHICH CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO LIE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE
TIMING OF LANDFALL IS A LITTLE HARD TO NAIL DOWN GIVEN THE
SHEAR...AS A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE COAST
WHILE A STRONGER ONE WILL LIKELY TAKE A MORE LEISURLY PATH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT...APART FROM THE WIND HAZARD IN THE IMMEDIATE
LANDFALL AREA...IS GOING TO BE FROM RAINFALL AND THE RESULTANT
FLOODING. WITH BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM
MANUEL BRINGING COPIOUS RAINS TO CENTRAL MEXICO...LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 22.5N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 22.8N 96.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 23.0N 97.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 22.8N 98.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1200Z 22.5N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
100 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 96.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF INGRID SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM INGRID NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 96.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF INGRID SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL BEGIN ONCE
INGRID MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV
MISSION INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF INGRID REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH INGRID DOES NOT RESEMBLE A CLASSIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE
PICTURES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. A COUPLE OF RECONNAISSANCE PLANES...ONE
FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE...AND THE OTHER A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH
MISSION...SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH AND
SIZE OF INGRID THIS EVENING. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...AND DECREASE ABOUT THE TIME
OF LANDFALL. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
BEFORE LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH INGRID COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
BETWEEN THE 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT AND LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT IS INLAND OVER MEXICO.

INGRID IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
INGRID SHOULD TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN BEND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL. THERE
IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL...
AND THE NHC FORECAST GENERALLY SPLITS THESE DIFFERENCES AND IS
CLOSE TO THE SPEED OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 22.7N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 23.0N 97.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 23.0N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0600Z 22.6N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 22.2N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID SLOWS DOWN AS IT MAKES A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 96.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 22.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF INGRID COULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL BEGIN ONCE INGRID MOVES OVER
LAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM...MAINLY TO NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID TURNS BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 96.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF INGRID SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DATA FROM THE TWO RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST. WEAKENING WILL BEGIN ONCE INGRID MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM...MAINLY TO NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
REPORTS IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
INDICATE THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ABATED...AT LEAST FOR THE MEAN TIME.
AROUND 21-22Z...A NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987
MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 989
MB. THE HIGHEST WIND DATA OBSERVED THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 76 KT AT 850
MB...62-63 KT SFMR BIAS-ADJUSTED...DROPSONDE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS OF 64 KT...AND A DROPSONDE SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT. A BLEND OF
THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 65 KT...
WHICH MEANS THAT INGRID IS BARELY MAINTAINING HURRICANE STATUS.

AFTER A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...INGRID
APPEARS TO HAVE RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE
OF 290/05 KT. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. HURRICANE INGRID SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT
24 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA.

A COMPARISON OF RADAR FIXES AT 35000 FEET AND THE RECONNAISSANCE
SURFACE POSITIONS INDICATE THAT MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL
TILTING THE UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE TIME
OF LANDFALL...WHICH MEANS THAT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT INGRID IS MOVING INTO THE CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM PERIOD. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT MOVES
INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 23.1N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 23.2N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 22.9N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1200Z 22.5N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 22.1N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
100 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...INGRID EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 96.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A TURN
TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
INGRID SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL BEGIN ONCE INGRID MOVES OVER
LAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM...MAINLY TO NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS
MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...CENTER OF INGRID APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 97.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NNE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN
TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
INGRID SHOULD CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL BEGIN ONCE INGRID MOVES OVER
LAND LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN A FEW HOURS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
RELAXED A LITTLE OVER INGRID...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE
HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH
THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB
RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 77 KT...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS CLOSING...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND. THE NHC WIND FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
LGEM PREDICTION.

GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE CENTER FIXES...ALONG WITH THE
BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR...INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS GAINED A
LITTLE MORE LATITUDE AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/6.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST A LITTLE LATER TODAY AND A TURN TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH STEERING BY THE
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS ALONG WITH
INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE LATTER FEATURE
TYPICALLY INDUCES A LEFTWARD BEND IN THE MOTION FOR LANDFALLING
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THIS REGION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST
HWRF MODEL TRACK.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM BOTH INGRID AND THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 23.4N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 23.3N 98.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/0600Z 22.8N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 22.3N 99.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 22.0N 100.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...INGRID WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR LA PESCA...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 97.8W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
AND HURRICANE WATCH. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CABO ROJO
HAS BEEN BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO NORTHWARD TO RIO SAN FERNANDO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS WEAKENED
TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND THAT THE CENTER MADE LANDFALL WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR NEAR LA PESCA MEXICO.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS
LOCATED JUST INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.8 WEST.
INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/H...AND A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF
INGRID WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
INGRID MOVES INLAND TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...INGRID BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 98.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF LA CRUZ MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO RIO SAN FERNANDO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST.
INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF INGRID WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE TROPICAL
STORM MOVES INLAND. INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...INGRID BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 98.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF LA CRUZ MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO RIO SAN FERNANDO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.2 WEST.
INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF INGRID WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE TROPICAL
STORM MOVES INLAND. INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT INGRID MADE LANDFALL
NEAR LA PESCA MEXICO SHORTLY BEFORE 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. THE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND
BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 50 KT. THESE DATA
INDICATE THAT INGRID WAS BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF
LANDFALL. THE HIGHEST WIND OBSERVED IN MEXICO WAS FROM AN AUTOMATED
STATION NEAR LA PESCA MEXICO THAT REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KT
WITH A GUST TO 56 KT AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KT...AND THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TODAY. INGRID
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SIERRE MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INGRID HAS NOT YET MADE THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN...AS THE
INITIAL MOTION IS STILL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD SOON...WITH THE TRACK FORECAST
TO BEND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE INGRID WEAKENS OVER LAND TONIGHT.

INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 23.8N 98.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/0000Z 23.4N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 22.8N 100.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
100 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...INGRID MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 98.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO RIO SAN FERNANDO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.6 WEST.
INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H....AND A
TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF INGRID WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE TROPICAL
STORM MOVES INLAND. INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...INGRID WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 99.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM W OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A
TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND INGRID IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5.47
INCHES...139 MM...HAS OCCURRED AT CABEZONES MEXICO.

WIND...GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT INGRID CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER
EASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THAT HAVE SHOWN
DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY OVER THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS.

SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT INGRID HAS FINALLY TURNED WESTWARD. A
TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHEST IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 23.7N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/0600Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...SLOW-MOVING INGRID PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODS
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 99.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF CIUDAD VICTORIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE BROWNSVILLE NOAA DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR DATA NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL
INGRID DISSIPATES ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND INGRID IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WSR-88D
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CLOUD TOPS HAVE
COOLED TO -80C AND COLDER JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND BANDING
FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR
DATA. BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE...INGRID IS BEING MAINTAINED
AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AS FRICTION WEAKENS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS DISRUPTED BY THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF INGRID.

INGRID HAS SLOWED ITS WESTWARD MOTION AND IS NOW MOVING 270/04 KT.
THE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO PUSH UP AGAINST THE
HIGH SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AT A FASTER SPEED...CAUSING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE AND MOVE MORE SLOWLY TO THE WEST
OR EVEN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INGRID IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONG UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
EASTWARD-FACING MOUNTAIN RANGES TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTER.
THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 23.7N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/1200Z 23.7N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

REMNANTS OF INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013

ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
MEXICO...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER AND CIRCULATION OF INGRID HAVE BEEN
DESTROYED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THEREFORE...INGRID HAS
DISSIPATED...AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY.

EVEN THOUGH INGRID HAS DISSIPATED...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS...
PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS...FLASH FLOODING...AND MUD
SLIDES IN THE AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 23.7N 99.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG