ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309170105
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2013, DB, O, 2013091700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952013
AL, 95, 2013091600, , BEST, 0, 177N, 852W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2013091606, , BEST, 0, 179N, 860W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2013091612, , BEST, 0, 181N, 868W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2013091618, , BEST, 0, 183N, 876W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2013091700, , BEST, 0, 185N, 884W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115694&hilit=&start=0

[BigB0882]

Is this the NW Caribbean system?

[cycloneye]

Is this the NW Caribbean system?

Yes it is. Just popped up so the Talking Tropics thread will be locked.

[wxman57]

Development chances not too good over the next few days, as high shear dominates the BoC. Might have a shot at spinning up into a TD/TS before it moves into Mexico (again). Probably no threat to the northern Gulf (no indication of that at this time) and probably not a hurricane.

[gatorcane]

Development chances not too good over the next few days, as high shear dominates the BoC. Might have a shot at spinning up into a TD/TS before it moves into Mexico (again). Probably no threat to the northern Gulf (no indication of that at this time) and probably not a hurricane.

Wxman what about what the GFS shows with the area in the SW Gulf eventually getting shunted NE ahead of a trough this weekend or is that a different area?

[floridasun78]

i see that increase of moisture in sw carribbean could that pull to nw Caribbean?

[gatorcane]

Information as of the most recent model cycle:

At 0000 UTC, 17 September 2013, LOW INVEST (AL95) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 18.5°N and 88.4°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 285 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2013/al952013/

Latest animated GIF, saved image:

[SFLcane]

BOC= 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[wxman57]

Development chances not too good over the next few days, as high shear dominates the BoC. Might have a shot at spinning up into a TD/TS before it moves into Mexico (again). Probably no threat to the northern Gulf (no indication of that at this time) and probably not a hurricane.

Wxman what about what the GFS shows with the area in the SW Gulf eventually getting shunted NE ahead of a trough this weekend or is that a different area?

I believe that's a separate system it develops.

[cycloneye]

SSD Floater is up

[LaBreeze]

Development chances not too good over the next few days, as high shear dominates the BoC. Might have a shot at spinning up into a TD/TS before it moves into Mexico (again). Probably no threat to the northern Gulf (no indication of that at this time) and probably not a hurricane.

Local met mentioned tonight that this could enter the BOC and, some of the models coming in are showing it heading to Mexico, but he thinks that it may get pulled into the central GOM and then the incoming front will send whatever is in the GOM over to Florida. He did mention that it could sling some gulf moisture up to the coast and that's why our rain chances are at 60% for Friday and Saturday. Anyone agree or disagree?

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at the pattern if this develops, I agree with wxman57 and what some are saying. After seeing Ingrid actually weaken before landfall due to shear, I can't imagine a very strong storm out of this. I also just don't think the pattern is established to where a front or trough could pick this up while in the Bay of Campeche. The strong ridge over Texas is just further icing on the cake for this system's track. I tend to think this probably becomes a weakish (pardon the made-up word, as it turned out) tropical storm but no more. Part of it is even in unfavorable conditions, these types of systems that do develop and have time usually still do so. One example is Gert in 2005. Even Nate in 2011, which had less than ideal conditions, briefly became a hurricane in this region.

So my call is a 45-50 mph tropical storm into Mexico. The other system people are talking about that could occur off the East Coast is a whole other animal unrelated to this one, in my opinion.

-Andrew92

[Stormcenter]

I personally right now don't see this one heading into Mexico if it does develop. IMO

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Wx_Warrior]

I do see this 95L heading into same gen direction as Ingrid. IMHO. (molehills are molehills)

[supercane4867]

20/40%

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND
EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TONIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[northjaxpro]

I personally right now don't see this one heading into Mexico if it does develop. IMO

You may be right about this. Interesting in the 2 a.m. TWO that NHC isexpecting the steering flow to collapse by the end of this week, forecasting 95L to become nearly stationary in the BOC/ SW GOM. There is a possibility that 95L may not reach the Mexico coast. It all depends how sharp the trough amplifies late this week as it approaches the Eastern U.S.

[tolakram]

I personally right now don't see this one heading into Mexico if it does develop. IMO

Any reasoning to back this up?

[Portastorm]

Given that we will have our first front of the fall season plowing into Texas, I'm guessing 95L will either stay squashed down in the BOC due to building high pressure in the Gulf or will get picked up by a frontal boundary/trough and slung into the central or northeastern Gulf.

And by the way, all of this talk about a "Texas ridge" isn't really accurate. Have you looked at the water vapor lately? The state is covered in upper level moisture. There is no ridge over Texas right now.

[tolakram]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171130
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

-- snip --


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW IS LIKELY TO DRIFT TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN
THE WEEK...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT
TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Pearl River]

This mornings AFD from NOLA:

IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF DISTURBED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODELS GENERALLY TAKING IT WEST TOWARD MEXICO. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF THE MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP A BAROCLINIC LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE IT
EAST NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND/OR NEXT WEEK. 11


Mike