ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

[caneman]

Agreed Blown Away on October pattern possibly more likely. Not real sure about the map provided but I remember Gabrielle well coming off the tip of the Yucatan and hitting us around the same time as 9/11 from 2001. The last Major to hit the Tampa area was from that very same area. Not saying it will be a major but anything coming from South and West of us always gets my attention.

The 1921 major hurricane that hit Tampa orginated in the W. Carribean and was from 20-30 OCT. Gabrielle in 2001 formed in the Eastern Gulf just off the West coast of Florida. Yes if you include October then the probabilities increase. I not saying it could not happen since we have seen stranger things before, it's just that it would be a historic first with regards to the climatological record.

Not really. Although Gabrielle wasn't classified until the Eastern Gulf it did come off the North or NW tip Yucatan. Tropical Storm Gordon (2000) is another that came of the Yucatan to affect us and points North. I'm sure there have been others. Having lived hear for so long, I would know. I've never bought much into the climatological thing much anyway (other than in a general sense), Mother Nature doesn't have a memory of where storms are supposed to form and which way they should go.

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS seems to just leave 95L in the BOC after missing the trough. Doesn't really intensify it though.

[Ptarmigan]

http://oi41.tinypic.com/2e395ya.jpg

http://oi40.tinypic.com/a2b3v4.jpg

When I see the models split on where it goes, it is a low confidence forecast. Could go anywhere from Mexico to Florida.

[ROCK]

all the 12Z global runs looked to have dropped anything of significance coming from 95L. Now they are leaving it in the BOC and then stringing out lows in the front towards the NE....

waiting on EURO to confirm....

[blp]

Not really. Although Gabrielle wasn't classified until the Eastern Gulf it did come off the North or NW tip Yucatan. Tropical Storm Gordon (2000) is another that came of the Yucatan to affect us and points North. I'm sure there have been others. Having lived hear for so long, I would know. I've never bought much into the climatological thing much anyway (other than in a general sense), Mother Nature doesn't have a memory of where storms are supposed to form and which way they should go.

Gordon in 2000 formed on the NE tip of the Yucatan. I think you missed the point of my original post. The point of the graphic was to try to find a specific examples of a systems that developed (classified) in the BOC and where they made landfall in September. In the case of Central or Southern Florida I could not find one example in the track database. So if you find a specific example please let me know.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro

48 hours, emerges from the western side of the peninsula moving NW.



http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013091812&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=024

[tolakram]

72 hours, just offshore. This is nearly due west from 48h position.

[tropicwatch]

12Z Euro

48 hours, emerges from the western side of the peninsula moving NW.



http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013091812&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=024

Can't we disregard that run since it is already entering the BOC?

[tolakram]

I think the initialization was pretty good.

96 hours, the vorticity map shows a slow SW movement from the previous position, still offshore. This map appears to move it S or S/SE.

[caneman]

I get your point blp and appeciate it.. My point is simply that we get affected quit a bit from that general area in Sept. I know your post is for storms that come from the BOC but my point is that it doesn't really matter, many years you have storms that pop up in areas that weren't expected or aren't climatologically favored. This would only be perhaps 50 - 100 miles west of a couple of the storms I mentioned. Every year is different. When is the last time you had so many storms form in the BOC? Anywho. back on topic.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

with the circulation now off the coast, I suspect tonight's runs will actually have something to work with. I'm sure a lot of soundings are being taken to try and assess that approaching front too. let's see what the models are saying tomorrow morning.
already, based on where the center has emerged...which model had that correct?? location and timing? any of them??

[ROCK]

not much to look at...strung out in the front now....rainmaker for the NE GOM...

[tolakram]

Bouncing back east, weaker. This looks to me like it develops, gets near the coast, and gets ripped apart.

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[Blown Away]

It's still there, it's that little pimple in the BOC...

[tolakram]

:uarrow: It's still there, it's that little pimple in the BOC...

But looking at the vorticity map the center is way south of the lowest pressure. We've quickly gone beyond my model reading skill. I'm looking at the GFS shear forecast for the same time period and it shows good conditions.

[tolakram]

The 12Z run seems bad, but I guess it could happen. The system is basically gone at 192H, stretched and reduced to nothing after wandering back and forth in the BOC.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Welcome to hurricane season 2013

Before writing it off completely will see what tonights runs show and if its still the same think its pretty much a done deal. Hopefully we can at least get some rain out of this invest unlike the last one.

[Stormcenter]

Done deal...based on a model runs?

Welcome to hurricane season 2013

Before writing it off completely will see what tonights runs show and if its still the same think its pretty much a done deal. Hopefully we can at least get some rain out of this invest unlike the last one.

[Ntxw]

Whatever it does between now and then, most models do agree it will be blasted/effected by wall of shear this weekend associated with the front/trof in the northern and NW gulf. It will get bullied if it doesn't get its act together fast if the pattern on the models are correct.

[tailgater]

Love the way so many S2Kers live and die by each of these model runs, IMHO we'll talking about a possible hurricane tomorrow and no I'm not saying it will be a hurricane tomorrow.