ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

[Portastorm]

Love the way so many S2Kers live and die by each of these model runs, IMHO we'll talking about a possible hurricane tomorrow and no I'm not saying it will be a hurricane tomorrow.

It's comical, isn't it? We've got people here on the verge of writing off a tropical system which has about zero percent agreement amongst the computer models. What are they basing these dismissive statements on? Certainly not any facts. The experts (NHC) say this is likely to develop as do our most reliable pro mets on this board.

[Riptide]

It would be encouraging to see at least some moderate model support for something substantial; if models can't get something right within 48 hours then that's somewhat horrendous.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Guess i was to vague. Should have said i dont think we will have much to worry about along the gulf as to further development. Sure it might become a depression tomorrow but as ntxw said tons of shear lie in wait further north which look to rip it apart.

An actually from what I've seen the models are pretty much in agreement that nothing much will be left of this when it approaches some part of the gulf coast.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Love the way so many S2Kers live and die by each of these model runs, IMHO we'll talking about a possible hurricane tomorrow and no I'm not saying it will be a hurricane tomorrow.

I don't care if this is a hurricane tomorrow. I'm talking about numerous model runs either showing this getting absorbed by the front or shear ripping it to shreads a few days from now. That has not been a one run wonder.

[Dean4Storms]

Love the way so many S2Kers live and die by each of these model runs, IMHO we'll talking about a possible hurricane tomorrow and no I'm not saying it will be a hurricane tomorrow.

I don't care if this is a hurricane tomorrow. I'm talking about numerous model runs either showing this getting absorbed by the front or shear ripping it to shreads a few days from now. That has not been a one run wonder.

If memory serves, most of the models didn't do much prior with Andrea either in early June mostly due to lots of shear and western Florida got a potent Tropical Storm.

It's not out of the question that a strong Tropical Storm or even a Hurricane could form from this, sure it might be sheared but the potential with all the warm water to the north and east is certainly there.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

On the flip side, as I have mentioned a couple of times, look at whatever # invest there was in the gulf back in august. Prime location and very warm water but shear due to a front tore it up and strung it out. Models at the very first were showing a storm or even possibly a hurricane early on then caught on quickly to the impending conditions and most dropped develpoment . which it never did.

[ROCK]

give it a chance Mike!!....all this doom and gloom, you are making me depressed...

[Ntxw]

Yeah MIKE let ROCK have his fun . Let him enjoy with the models since reality only gives us invest watching most of this season, best we've got! A little over 48 hours of fun before the shredder comes down.

[Riptide]

The GFS loves phantom lows, too bad 95L does not get ejected from the BoC on this run would of been interesting.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yeah MIKE let ROCK have his fun . Let him enjoy with the models since reality only gives us invest watching most of this season, best we've got! A little over 48 hours of fun before the shredder comes down.

Just trying to keep things in a realistic perspective. But You're right sorry rock

give it a chance Mike!!....all this doom and gloom, you are making me depressed...

Trust me Rock I am probably more depressed and pulling for a system to develop and hit us square on more than a lot of people right now. I have lost over $500, would be $800 but one is a contract thankfully, worth of work between today and tomorrow due to all this dry weather we are having.

[gatorcane]

Latest spaghetti plots, certainly living up that name right now

Though we see more models taking it NE or ENE as the front gets a hold of it:

[chaser1]

Circumstances just seem to be so "up in the air". Things would be so much more clear if..... if...., if only we had a "Newfoundland Wheel" to guide us!

[chaser1]

Sorry just felt like the board could use a moment of light-hearted levity. The captain has turned the seatbelt sign back on; we now return to our regularly scheduled programming; please return to your seats with all trays in the upright position.

[ROCK]

0Z NAM agrees with most of the others now.....it wont make the trof....might spit out a frontal low to ride up to the NE but the main entity remains

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2013091900/nam_reflectivity_watl_27.png

[ROCK]

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[ROCK]

0Z GFS.....Tampico just cant get a break....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091900/gfs_mslp_wind_watl_16.png

[chaser1]

0Z NAM agrees with most of the others now.....it wont make the trof....might spit out a frontal low to ride up to the NE but the main entity remains

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2013091900/nam_reflectivity_watl_27.png

I dont know Rock, the whole idea of "spiting out a frontal low" is my recollection of what recent fall Yucatan channel lows have utlimatley meant for S. Florida. One big convective surge flying by, leaving little in its wake but some remaining lower surface pressures to our south, just for them to slowly fill and move on over Central America. Nice, now i'm really depressed....what might have been our final decent "home brew" opportunity, might well simply abort into a fleeting September baroclinic low. Now THAT would be a fitting end to this retched season

[Riptide]

Hard to tell whats going on with the 0z GFS; 95L just drifts around in the gulf without developing much. Merging with another system by next week.

[bamajammer4eva]

Very large "storm"-covers the entire gulf. If only there was anything to it.

[weatherwindow]

Circumstances just seem to be so "up in the air". Things would be so much more clear if..... if...., if only we had a "Newfoundland Wheel" to guide us!

LOL...Chaser that may have been just what I needed this morning...Thanks, for the much needed levity(certainly this season)...on a more sober note ...two weeks ago, I would have voted for Veracruz in a heartbeat. However, given the recent demise of the death ridge and the climo pattern(stronger, deeper troffing in the westerlies) of late September, I doubt that things will be up in the air much longer. IMHO, the NGOM coast will finally see a visitor from the BOC...Grtz from KW, Rich

The above comment do not represent an official forecast and are not endorsed by anyone(except my mother ). For official advices, consult the NWS, the NHC or your local emergency mgmt organization