EPAC - INVEST 92E

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL OR
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS LOW TO LAND IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. WHEN THE LOW
MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

[Yellow Evan]

May IMO have a chance if it does not run into cool SSTS' quickly.

[cycloneye]

Up to 10%/40% at 5 PM PDT TWO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM IN THIS
AREA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

[hurricanes1234]

If it's on a westward track, it shouldn't have this problem too soon. If it's going northwest, well, very cool SSTS lay fairly close ahead. Will be keeping an eye on this.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Is this recent loss of convection due to diurnal minimum? Or is it dissipating?

[Yellow Evan]

Is this recent loss of convection due to diurnal minimum? Or is it dissipating?

Former IMO.

[supercane4867]

20/60

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE SEP 24 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO. ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
MEXICO...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BY LATE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

[hurricanes1234]

They're saying that environmental conditions should become more favourable for significant development. Maybe this will become a hurricane.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO:

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...AND
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IN PART
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND. DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE LIKELY LATER
THIS WEEK AFTER THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[hurricanes1234]

Down to 10%. What a season.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[supercane4867]

GFS has dropped this system after showing some development in the previous runs

NO model support at all

[cycloneye]

5 PM TWO.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THERE IS A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[hurricanes1234]

I knew it! I knew somewhere in one of the TWOs, they would state that something unfavourable looms ahead, this time, it's wind shear. We might end up with a weak TS if at all, considering that this system wants to hug the coast, and strong upper level winds should be here soon.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Now down to 10%/40%. I guess because it's 2013, it will just go down and down until it reaches 0%. How pathetic.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%-30% at 5 AM PDT TWO.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT TWO at 20%/30%.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.

[cycloneye]

5 PM TWO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING NEAR A WEAK AND
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME
UNFAVORABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY.

[cycloneye]

A WEAK AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ONLY LIMITED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY.

[hurricanes1234]

Pretty much done in my opinion. It can't even maintain any good convection, conditions are becoming hostile, and I am not seeing any type of circulation.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.