ATL: JERRY - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 28 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 50.2W
ABOUT 960 MI...1540 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A EASTWARD
MOTION LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 28 2013

THE WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE ELEVENTH ONE OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT ON THE WEST SIDE OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOON AS A LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CAUSING
THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD LATE
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABSORB OR PICK UP THE
DEPRESSION...INSTEAD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE CYCLONE BEING LEFT BEHIND IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR AT LEAST
A FEW DAYS. THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON THE STEERING FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
DEPRESSION AROUND THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE NHC FORECAST
SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAKING A CLOCKWISE LOOP AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY ABOUT 15 KT OF
SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WHICH HAS DISPLACED MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
LESSEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE. AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
STRENGTHENING TREND AND LIKELY INDUCE WEAKENING. THE NHC WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT
TERM AND THEN LIES ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 25.2N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 26.1N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 27.0N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 27.1N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 26.6N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 26.2N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 27.2N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 29.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 AM AST SUN SEP 29 2013

NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION HAS A ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS
SHEARED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME WEAK
CURVED BAND FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRYING TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED. FOR NOW...HOWEVER...AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BEING
MAINTAINED BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT FROM
TAFB AND UW-CIMSS ADT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE SMALL
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS IT
MOVES AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
NEW RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BUILD IN AND BECOME
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BY 48
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD THROUGH 72
HOURS...COMPLETING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP IN THE PROCESS. AFTER
THAT...A SECOND AND STRONGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THE UNITED STATES...AND ACT TO LIFT OUT THE CYCLONE
AND ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS ONLY INDICATING 9 KT
OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE DEPRESSION...WHICH
IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN IT WAS ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN OF
THE DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER...
LIKELY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ONLY
ABOUT 300 NMI TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THAT LOW IS FORECAST
BY MOST OF THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF...TO MOVE IN
TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO AS IT MAKES A
CLOCKWISE LOOP. AS A RESULT...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE PLAGUED BY
AT LEAST MODERATE SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON. HOWEVER...IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY FROM THE
CYCLONE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN THE SYSTEM COULD BE
SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 25.6N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 26.4N 48.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 27.0N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 26.8N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 26.4N 46.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 26.3N 47.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 27.7N 48.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 30.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 29 2013

THE DEPRESSION HAS A POORLY ORGANIZED PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE
IMAGES THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND
DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A NARROW BAND OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 25-30 KT...SO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO IMPART SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS REGIME SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. LATER ON...THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR SO SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR SO. THE LATEST GFS RUN DOES
NOT SHOW THE SYSTEM WEAKENING IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER FIXES...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 050/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREDICTED BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO AMPLIFY TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND
TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS
THE HFIP STREAM 1.5 MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
EXECUTING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND SO
DOES THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALBEIT SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 26.0N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 26.7N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 26.8N 46.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.5N 46.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 26.5N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 26.5N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 27.5N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 29.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 PM AST SUN SEP 29 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
POORLY-ORGANIZED AND IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING
FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO IMPART STRONG SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE SYSTEM BECAME EXPOSED
EARLIER TODAY. MORE RECENTLY...A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION
OBSCURED THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL
FOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...
HOWEVER...THAT THE LATEST HWRF AND ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE
SYSTEM PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO
THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 050/9. THE GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AND...ACCORDING TO
SOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...A CLOCKWISE LOOP. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...AS BEFORE...ALSO INDICATES A LOOPING TRACK. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS
PREDICTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 27.2N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 27.3N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 27.3N 46.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 26.9N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 26.7N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 27.0N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 29.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 31.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 29 2013

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 47.0W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1190 MI...1920 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.
A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 29 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...IT
HAS LESS OF A SHEARED APPEARANCE. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 30
KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DECREASING SOME
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE DRIER AIR IMPINGES ON THE SYSTEM.
THESE MIXED SIGNALS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY DURING THAT TIME FRAME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN INCREASE
IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE SOME
WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSER TO THE LOW END OF THE
GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE
RIGHT...AS FORECAST...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
065/8. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS
GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO AMPLIFY TO THE WEST
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 3 TO 4 DAYS WHEN ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 27.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 27.1N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 26.9N 45.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 26.6N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 26.4N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 27.0N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 29.5N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 31.5N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 AM AST MON SEP 30 2013

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 46.7W
ABOUT 1375 MI...2215 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 1150 MI...1845 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 AM AST MON SEP 30 2013

THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS SHEARED NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH IS OFTEN
INDICATIVE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH SAB
REPORTED A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT. ADT VALUES ARE T2.8/41 KT
AND A 02032Z OSCAT PASS CONTAINED SOME RAIN-FREE 30-35 KT WIND
VECTORS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE IS
VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HISTORY OF
THIS SYSTEM GOING THROUGH SPORADIC CONVECTIVE BURSTING PHASES...THE
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT WITH THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL
BEING INCREASED TO 45 KT UNTIL A MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED EASTWARD AND HAS SLOWED DOWN...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 090/04 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MAKING A SLOW CLOCKWISE
LOOP OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS BEFORE ACCELERATING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A BROAD
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND DUE TO A
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD BIAS CAUSED BY THE HWRF MODEL.

MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN MODERATE SHEAR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION IS
BETWEEN 48 TO 72 HOURS WHEN THE SHEAR COULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT AS THE
CYCLONE BRIEFLY MOVES UNDERNEATH A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AS A
TROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
MORE STRENGTHENING BETWEEN THOSE TWO FORECAST TIME PERIODS BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN AT AROUND 72 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON CONSENSUS
MODEL...AND REMAINS NEAR THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 26.9N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 26.9N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 26.6N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 26.4N 46.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 26.3N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 27.4N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 29.5N 48.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 32.0N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 AM AST MON SEP 30 2013

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 45.7W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1935 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1325 MI...2130 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. AT 1100 AM AST...1500
UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST. JERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST
NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 AM AST MON SEP 30 2013

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH 35 KT...AND THE CYCLONE IS BEING UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE STORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT
THIS TIME...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HOSTILE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT AT LEAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND THEREFORE THE WIND
SPEED FORECAST FOR THAT TIME IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.

CENTER FIXES FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STORM
HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 090/6. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
PREDICT AN AMPLIFYING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF JERRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING SCENARIO
SHOULD RESULT IN THE STORM DECELERATING AND MOVING IN A CLOCKWISE
LOOP DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT JERRY MAY NOT GET PICKED UP BY THE NEXT TROUGH IN
THE WESTERLIES...AND THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 27.0N 45.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 26.6N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 26.3N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 26.2N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 26.3N 47.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 27.3N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 28.5N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 30.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013

...JERRY EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ERRATICALLY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 44.9W
ABOUT 1240 MI...1995 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST. JERRY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A SLOW AND ERRATIC
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013

ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING RECENTLY...SOME CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES HAVE FORMED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE CENTER IS NOT READILY DISCERNABLE...BUT IS
ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CLOUD
MASS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 2.5...SO
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. ALTHOUGH THE
ENVIRONMENT...IN PARTICULAR THE VERTICAL SHEAR...IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THIS IS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
SEEMINGLY OVER-AGGRESSIVE LGEM AND THE GLOBAL AND HWRF MODELS
THAT SHOW DISSIPATION OR A VERY WEAK SYSTEM BY 5 DAYS.

JERRY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD...085/6...BUT THIS MOTION IS
NOT LIKELY TO CONTINUE MUCH LONGER. THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF JERRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...MUCH OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN JERRY MOVING IN A
CLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE CYCLONE COULD BE CARRIED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE NEXT 500
MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES JERRY
WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 4-5 DAYS...AND RESPOND TO
THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...SHOWN BY
THE ECMWF MODEL...IS FOR JERRY TO WEAKEN TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH BY
THAT TIME AND DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 27.3N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 27.0N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 26.7N 45.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 26.7N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 27.2N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 28.5N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 30.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 32.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013

...JERRY STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 43.8W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST. JERRY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A SLOW AND ERRATIC
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD BY LATE
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013

THE STRUCTURE OF JERRY HAS EVOLVED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. EARLIER TODAY THE CLOUD PATTERN RESEMBLED A SHEARED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. RECENTLY...BANDING FEATURES
HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW MUCH MORE
SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON
A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.

THE SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE STORM DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAS APPARENTLY SLACKENED...GIVEN THE MORE SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRIER AIR IMPINGING ON JERRY. THESE
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER 72 HOURS...
WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE DUE TO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE SINCE THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE RANGING FROM DISSIPATION WITHIN A
FEW DAYS...AS SHOWN BY THE HWRF AND ECMWF MODELS...TO A HURRICANE
AS INDICATED BY THE LGEM.

JERRY IS STILL MOVING EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL SOON SLOW DOWN AND
MEANDER WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. A
WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME RIDGING BUILDS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT LIES
TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 27.4N 43.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 27.2N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 27.1N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 27.3N 45.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 27.9N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 29.0N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 30.5N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 33.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013

...HOSTILE CONDITIONS CAUSE JERRY TO WEAKEN....


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 43.7W
ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST. JERRY IS
NEARLY STATIONARY...AND A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH BY
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS COMPLETELY SQUASHED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF JERRY. A
SHARP MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF JERRY IS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD AND IS INCREASING THE SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE...AND ALSO
LIKELY ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. A 0042Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B
SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS...WHICH WAS UNAVAILABLE FOR THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...INDICATED A COUPLE OF 38-KT SURFACE WIND VECTORS IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT. IT IS ASSUMED THAT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS EXIST
EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE VIGOROUS CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY EXISTED...
SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE MOTION OF JERRY DUE TO THE LACK OF
CONTINUITY IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...0559Z ATMS
AND 0608Z AMSU OVERPASSES SUGGEST THAT JERRY IS MOVING LITTLE. THE
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
CYCLONE REMAINING IN WEAK STEERING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ERRATIC MOTION. BY 48 HOURS...
HOWEVER...THE NEXT MID-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS JUST MOVED OFF
THE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT JERRY TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THAT MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 120
HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS AGAIN BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...BUT IT REMAINS WEST OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT THE
JERRY BRIEFLY BECAME ENTANGLED WITH DURING THE AFTERNOON OF 30 SEP
IS NOW EXITING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG SHEAR ACROSS
THE CYCLONE CREATED BY THAT LOW AND THE UPPER-TROUGH TO THE NORTH
COULD CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING TODAY. HOWEVER...BY 36-48
HOURS...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE U.S. EAST COAST
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SLIGHT RE-STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. AFTER THAT...INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO LEVEL
OFF...AND POSSIBLY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING BY DAY 5. THERE REMAINS A
LARGE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RANGING FROM A WEAK TROPICAL
STORM IN THE HWRF AND ECMWF MODELS TO A HURRICANE IN THE LGEM
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR AND EXPECTED MODERATE SHEAR FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 27.2N 43.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 27.2N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 27.5N 44.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 28.2N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 29.0N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 30.7N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 32.0N 37.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 33.5N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013

...JERRY NOT MOVING MUCH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 43.5W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.5 WEST. JERRY IS
NEARLY STATIONARY...AND A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO
THE WEST OF A SMALL AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON
DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS AND A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40
KT. ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE STORM...SO
STRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT
MUCH...IF ANY...INTENSIFICATION. BY 5 DAYS...EVEN STRONGER SHEAR
IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR
SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RECENT MOVEMENT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. JERRY IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A REGION OF
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...BUT MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE AREAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTERWARD...THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 28.1N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 28.1N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 28.7N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 29.5N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 30.3N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 31.5N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 32.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 33.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013

...JERRY REMAINS STALLED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 43.5W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.5 WEST. JERRY IS
NEARLY STATIONARY...AND A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013

AFTER BEING SERIOUS DISRUPTED EARLY THIS MORNING...THE CLOUD PATTERN
OF THE STORM HAS MADE SOMEWHAT OF A COMEBACK IN TERMS OF
ORGANIZATION. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED SLIGHTLY WITHIN
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS AND THERE IS JUST A LITTLE EVIDENCE
OF BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.
BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT JERRY SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO LITTLE OR NO
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST NUMERICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OR NO MOVEMENT SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS STATIONARY. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...JERRY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD
AND THEN A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE AREAS TO ITS WEST AND SOUTHEAST. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION. THE NEW GFS FORECAST IS EVEN FASTER AND THIS IS A FAIRLY
DRASTIC CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THIS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 28.1N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 28.4N 43.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 29.1N 43.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 30.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 31.0N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 33.0N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 34.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 37.0N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013

...JERRY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 43.7W
ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1180 MI...1900 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST. JERRY HAS
BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H...THIS EVENING. A SLOW
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED BY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE
AND ORGANIZATION ONCE AGAIN...WITH RECENT SATELLITE DATA ONLY
SHOWING A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. A TIMELY 2356 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS
SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 35 KT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS WHILE JERRY REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...JERRY WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO AN AREA OF STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING AND
DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SMALL CYCLONE COULD SUCCUMB TO THE
SHEAR AND DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW.

AFTER REMAINING STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...IT APPEARS THAT
JERRY HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD THIS EVENING. JERRY IS FORECAST TO
MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE.
AFTER THAT TIME...JERRY SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
ACCELERATE IN THE MID-LATITUDE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF JERRY IN A FEW
DAYS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...
OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 28.1N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 28.6N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 29.5N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 30.6N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 31.8N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 34.0N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 37.0N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 41.0N 23.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013

...JERRY DRIFTING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 44.0W
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST. JERRY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. A NORTHWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A FASTER MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY IN BANDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND EXPERIMENTAL MULTISPECTRAL AIRMASS IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT THE CYCLONE IS UNDERNEATH A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THERE ARE NO RECENT SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES...AND THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO. BASED ON
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WESTWARD DRIFT OR 270/1. JERRY IS CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF A RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF EASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN THIS RIDGE LATER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE JERRY TO BECOME
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS SHOWN BY
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
IN TERMS OF DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SPEED
BETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE OTHER MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FORECAST MOTION BRINGS JERRY OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DECAY. INDEED...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT JERRY WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY THE 72 HOUR POINT.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH 72
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE. AN ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO IS THAT JERRY DISSIPATES MUCH EARLIER AS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 28.1N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 28.9N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 29.9N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 31.1N 40.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 32.2N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 34.5N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 38.0N 27.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013

...JERRY NEARLY STATIONARY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 43.9W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 1275 MI...2055 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST. JERRY IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY IS NOT VERY EXTENSIVE AND
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE STORM
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE
MAY NOT BE FULLY TROPICAL. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT. JERRY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND EXPERIENCE INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS JERRY
MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE SUCCUMBING
TO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A
LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE LGEM GUIDANCE. THE
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT JERRY WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN
HERE...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY QUITE POSSIBLE.

CENTER FIXES ARE ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE EARLIER THIS MORNING...SO THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. JERRY IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 500-MB WESTERLIES. A BROAD TROUGH IS
APPROACHING THE AREA...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. LATER ON...THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
CARRY JERRY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE LATEST RUN
OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 28.2N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 29.1N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 30.3N 41.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 31.4N 39.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 32.4N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 34.7N 31.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 37.5N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013

...JERRY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 42.6W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.6 WEST. JERRY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JERRY IS SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVERALL...AND THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. JERRY CONTINUES TO BE INVOLVED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. WHILE JERRY WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO....THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS BY 36 HOURS AND VERTICAL SHEAR
GRADUALLY INCREASES. THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL/HWRF
MODELS. JERRY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE BY 5 DAYS... ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER AS
INDICATED BY SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE INITIAL POSITION OF JERRY HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON A 1457Z
AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE...SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER
NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THIS RELOCATION SUGGESTS THAT
THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 045/05. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS JERRY IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. OVERALL
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ROUGHLY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 29.3N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 30.2N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 31.5N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 32.6N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 33.6N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 35.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 38.0N 26.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013

...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 42.0W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST
AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013

DEEP CONVECTION HAS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...CEASED WITHIN JERRY
THIS EVENING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE
CORRESPONDINGLY DROPPED...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT
30 KT.

THE INITIAL POSITION CAN BE LOCATED SOMEWHAT RELIABLY AS THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER CAN BE SEEN IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY NOW
THAT THE DEEP-LAYER CLOUDINESS HAS SUBSIDED. THE POSITION
INDICATES A CURRENT MOTION OF 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT. JERRY IS LOCATED
NORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
GETS PICKED UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK MODELS
ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND ARE CENTERED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE...AS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO RESUME TONIGHT DURING THE LATE
NIGHT-EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MAXIMUM. HOWEVER...AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...THIS WILL BRING IT OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS...THROUGH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND INTO STRONGER
TROPOSPHERIC VERTICAL SHEAR. THUS THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT
REINTENSIFICATION APPEAR TO BE SLIM. AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...JERRY
WILL BE TRAVERSING 24C WATERS AND IT SHOULD LOSE DEEP CONVECTION
PERMANENTLY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW. JERRY IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY DAY FIVE...THOUGH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS COULD OCCUR A DAY OR TWO SOONER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL HURRICANE MODELS AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS...AND IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 29.7N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 30.6N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 32.8N 35.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 33.4N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 36.0N 29.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0000Z 38.5N 25.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013

A FEW PUFFS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AROUND THE WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JERRY EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS HAD DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING ITSELF...
PROBABLY DUE TO DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE
CYCLONE. THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS CAUSED DVORAK
INTENSITY NUMBERS TO DROP FURTHER. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 30 KT...BASED PRIMARILY UPON PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUITY.
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS...AS WELL A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE PATH
OF THE STORM SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOW INDICATED SOONER...AND THERE IS SOME
CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM OPENING UP AS A TROUGH WITHIN TWO DAYS AS
INDICATED BY THE UKMET/ECWMF MODELS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE BEYOND 24 HOURS.

THE HEADING OF THE STORM IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...BUT THE
FORWARD MOTION IS A BIT FASTER. A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF FIXES
STILL YIELDS A NORTHEASTERLY MOTION ESTIMATE OF 050/08. JERRY
SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THE TRACK OF JERRY SHOULD BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND DECELERATE ONCE IT BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE AND MOVES IN
BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY STRONGER VORTEX.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 30.2N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 31.3N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 32.4N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 33.4N 34.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 34.4N 32.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z 37.5N 28.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013

JERRY IS PRODUCING ONLY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THAT
CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND
EXPERIENCE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY AND DISSIPATE
ENTIRELY BY 96 HOURS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER.

THE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THE MOTION IS NOW
ABOUT 050/10. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JERRY SHOULD MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED...AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. AFTER
THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN A BIT
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 31.0N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 32.9N 35.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 33.9N 33.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 35.2N 31.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 38.5N 27.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory:


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 PM AST THU OCT 03 2013

JERRY LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KT IN 48 HOURS. REGENERATION IS
UNLIKELY AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AFTER 48 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...060/12. POST-TROPICAL JERRY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS PREDICTION AND
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON JERRY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 31.8N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 04/0600Z 32.6N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1800Z 33.7N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z 34.8N 32.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 36.0N 30.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH