ATL: JERRY - Models

[hurricanes1234]

I have some questions on this.
1. The dynamic models indicate rapid development?
2. Is this a new TCFA? I see it is at 2330 UTC, which is an unusual time.

WTPN21 PGTW 282330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 134.2E TO 14.8N 137.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 282300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 134.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 136.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE; HOWEVER, A 282024Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE BROAD LLCC. RECENT SURFACE WINDS AT KOROR SHOW SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND THE RECENT SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS (500-2500 FEET), INDICATIVE OF THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 292330Z.//NNNN

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

:?: I have some questions on this.
1. The dynamic models indicate rapid development?
2. Is this a new TCFA? I see it is at 2330 UTC, which is an unusual time.

WTPN21 PGTW 282330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 134.2E TO 14.8N 137.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 282300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 134.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 136.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE; HOWEVER, A 282024Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE BROAD LLCC. RECENT SURFACE WINDS AT KOROR SHOW SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND THE RECENT SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS (500-2500 FEET), INDICATIVE OF THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 292330Z.//NNNN

This is for a system in the West Pacific, not 11L.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Deja Vu.

Models are starting to really back down on the amount of shear TD11 is going to experience after 24 hours. This is why the NHC shows a steady state cyclone through the period after 24 hours. The latest run of the GFS makes 11L a hurricane by a week out as it approaches the Azores.

[hurricanes1234]

Deja Vu.

Models are starting to really back down on the amount of shear TD11 is going to experience after 24 hours. This is why the NHC shows a steady state cyclone through the period after 24 hours. The latest run of the GFS makes 11L a hurricane by a week out as it approaches the Azores.

I guess it's a 50/50 for me, because they did the same thing with Humberto, and one even brought it to a secondary peak of 115 mph. They expected the wind shear to diminish, but when the time approached, it never did. But the other 50% that could really make this true is that it's forecasting the drop in only 24 hours, as opposed to about a week in advance for Humberto.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

12z GFS re-changed its mind.

[cycloneye]

Only the non-reliable model CMC aka GEM has Jerry up to cat 2 cane.

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h

ECWMF has low level vorticity center, remnants of Jerry, tracking to west of Bermuda by day 9

[cycloneye]

LGEM briefly goes to Hurricane strength.

[TheStormExpert]

Probably will peak at 50-60mph, at the very most maybe 65mph.