BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
700 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013
...KAREN STATIONARY SOUTH OF LOUISIANA......
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 91.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. KAREN HAS
BEEN STATIONARY THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST FROM ALABAMA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...
MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...1 TO 3 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED
FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
ATL: KAREN - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Advisories
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013
...KAREN WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 91.9W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS OR WATCHES IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS
FORECAST MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN WILL
MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA ON
SUNDAY...AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST FROM ALABAMA TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND KAREN IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY
MONDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013
KAREN HAS ESSENTIALLY REMAINED STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND THAT LACK OF MOTION...COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...HAS INCREASED THE
SHEAR SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CYCLONE. THE RESULT IS THAT
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB SUPPORTED KEEPING KAREN AS A BORDERLINE
TROPICAL STORM AT 00Z...BUT THE LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
SINCE THEN REQUIRES A DOWNGRADE TO DEPRESSION STATUS AT THE 03Z
ADVISORY TIME. GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
GET EVEN STRONGER OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...RE-STRENGTHENING BACK TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS IS NOT LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
MID-LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER AS
WELL...PREVENTING THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER. AS A RESULT...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
THE STATIONARY MOTION OF KAREN THE PAST 6-9 HOURS HAS BEEN DUE TO A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH HAS
BLOCKED ANY EASTWARD MOTION BY THE CYCLONE. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
ALLOWING KAREN OR ITS REMNANTS TO MOVE IN A EASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES IN 48-72
HOURS OR IS ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA...AND SHOWS KAREN PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND
REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AFTER THAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 28.1N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 28.7N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 29.1N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 29.3N 86.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z 29.5N 83.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013
...KAREN WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 91.9W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS OR WATCHES IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS
FORECAST MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN WILL
MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA ON
SUNDAY...AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST FROM ALABAMA TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND KAREN IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY
MONDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013
KAREN HAS ESSENTIALLY REMAINED STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND THAT LACK OF MOTION...COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...HAS INCREASED THE
SHEAR SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CYCLONE. THE RESULT IS THAT
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB SUPPORTED KEEPING KAREN AS A BORDERLINE
TROPICAL STORM AT 00Z...BUT THE LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
SINCE THEN REQUIRES A DOWNGRADE TO DEPRESSION STATUS AT THE 03Z
ADVISORY TIME. GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
GET EVEN STRONGER OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...RE-STRENGTHENING BACK TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS IS NOT LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
MID-LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER AS
WELL...PREVENTING THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER. AS A RESULT...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
THE STATIONARY MOTION OF KAREN THE PAST 6-9 HOURS HAS BEEN DUE TO A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH HAS
BLOCKED ANY EASTWARD MOTION BY THE CYCLONE. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
ALLOWING KAREN OR ITS REMNANTS TO MOVE IN A EASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES IN 48-72
HOURS OR IS ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA...AND SHOWS KAREN PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND
REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AFTER THAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 28.1N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 28.7N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 29.1N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 29.3N 86.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z 29.5N 83.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013
...KAREN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 91.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4
KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA
AND MISSISSIPPI COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
PATH OF THE CENTER.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013
THE CENTER OF KAREN IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED ON NIGHTTIME INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES...AND PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 25
KT. GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SOON...WITH A VERY LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND
DRIER AIR...KAREN SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR
SO. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
DISSIPATE IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 045/2. KAREN
OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 28.3N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 29.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0600Z 29.8N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1800Z 30.4N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013
...KAREN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 91.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4
KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA
AND MISSISSIPPI COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
PATH OF THE CENTER.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013
THE CENTER OF KAREN IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED ON NIGHTTIME INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES...AND PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 25
KT. GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SOON...WITH A VERY LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND
DRIER AIR...KAREN SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR
SO. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
DISSIPATE IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 045/2. KAREN
OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 28.3N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 29.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0600Z 29.8N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1800Z 30.4N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Advisories
Last Advisory
REMNANTS OF KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013
EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF
KAREN HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED. AS A
RESULT...KAREN IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANTS OF KAREN HAVE BEEN MOVING QUICKLY
EASTWARD THIS MORNING AT AROUND 11 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT UNTIL THEY ARE OVERTAKEN BY THE
FRONT IN A DAY OR SO.
THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE REMNANT CENTER...AND REGENERATON IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO EVEN
HIGHER VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF KAREN CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. INTERESTS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST CAN FIND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 28.1N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
REMNANTS OF KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013
EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF
KAREN HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED. AS A
RESULT...KAREN IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANTS OF KAREN HAVE BEEN MOVING QUICKLY
EASTWARD THIS MORNING AT AROUND 11 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT UNTIL THEY ARE OVERTAKEN BY THE
FRONT IN A DAY OR SO.
THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE REMNANT CENTER...AND REGENERATON IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO EVEN
HIGHER VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF KAREN CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. INTERESTS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST CAN FIND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 28.1N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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