ATL: KAREN - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 87.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOUND A
CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 50 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM KAREN. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE
INTENSIFY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME
WEAKENING EXPECTED AS KAREN APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT THE
STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 340/11 GIVEN THE RECENT
FORMATION OF THE CENTER. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEST/EAST
SPREAD IN THE TRACKS...WITH THE ECMWF ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS FARTHEST EAST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH LANDFALL. NOTE THAT A TRACK FARTHER
EAST WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER STORM...WHILE KAREN WOULD
LIKELY BE WEAKER IF IT TAKES A TRACK FARTHER WEST.

GIVEN THE FORECAST...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1300Z 22.0N 87.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 88.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 25.4N 88.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 27.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 28.3N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 31.0N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0600Z 34.5N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0600Z 38.5N 77.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

...KAREN A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 87.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF KAREN
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

KAREN CONTINUES TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT SHEARED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 20 OR SO KT OF SHEAR
ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON SEVERAL BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS IN
THE 50-55 KT RANGE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT. WITH MODERATE SHEAR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SOME
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS KAREN APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT
THE STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. THE
NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. KAREN SHOULD BE INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE BY DAY 4 AND
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL A RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN 330/10.
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONINS HAS NOT CHANGED...AS KAREN WILL MOVE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE EAST/WEST SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. NOTE THAT A STRONGER STORM WOULD
LIKELY MOVER FARTHER EAST...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO TAKE A TRACK FARTHER WEST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 22.2N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 23.8N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 25.4N 89.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 26.9N 89.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 28.2N 89.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 31.0N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1200Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
100 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

...KAREN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 88.2W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF KAREN IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 88.5W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN
NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE NOAA AIRCRAFT
WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AS SOON AS FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF
THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF KAREN REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...AS
THE CENTER HAS BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO ANALYZE ABOUT 20 KT
OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER KAREN...AND DRY AIR IS PRESENT IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DESPITE THESE NEGATIVE
FACTORS...KAREN CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. THE NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTERS JUST MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB...AND
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS FROM BOTH THE NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55
KT. MODERATE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND ONLY GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS KAREN
APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT THE STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. KAREN SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY ABOUT 4 DAYS AND ABSORBED
BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE CONFIDENT 330/10 BASED ON
AIRCRAFT FIXES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS KAREN WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE. A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 48
HOURS AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS
AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE EAST/WEST SPREAD...WITH THE HWRF AND GFS TO THE EAST
AND THE ECMWF TO THE WEST. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE
WEST ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE BUT STILL LIES A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF
THE LATEST TCVA CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
THROUGH LANDFALL.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS.

GIVEN THE NEW NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 23.3N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 24.6N 89.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 26.2N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 27.6N 89.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 28.8N 89.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 32.0N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1800Z 36.0N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
700 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

...TROPICAL STORM KAREN HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 88.9W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KAREN IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY BOTH HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANES WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AS SOON AS FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF
THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

...KAREN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 89.0W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM KAREN HAS BEEN EXTENSIVELY INVESTIGATED BY AIR FORCE
AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES THIS EVENING. AT 1000 PM CDT...
0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED BY THOSE
PLANES NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND KAREN COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE FRIDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF
THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

KAREN CONTINUES TO BE A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH A VIGOROUS
CIRCULATION...AND WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT COVERAGE
BY BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THAT RECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR AFFECTING
KAREN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING. IT
IS BECOMING LESS REALISTIC THAT KAREN WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN A
DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVING CREDIT TO SOME DYNAMICAL MODELS...LIKE THE
HWRF...WHICH DO SO...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT KAREN WILL BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 4.

FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES INDICATE THAT KAREN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. AS A NARROW
RIDGE OVER FLORIDA WEAKENS OR SLIDES EASTWARD...AND A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OVERALL TRACK GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A TYPICAL RECURVATURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND
SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST...NO CHANGE IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS
IS NECESSARY AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS WILL BE REVISITED AS KAREN
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 24.2N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 25.5N 89.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 26.9N 90.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 28.0N 90.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 29.2N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 32.5N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 08/0000Z 36.5N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
100 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

...KAREN CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 89.5W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND KAREN COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE TODAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON
THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF
THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

...KAREN WEAKENS A LITTLE...EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 89.8W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR
60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER..

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA
AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON
THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF
THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

KAREN IS SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI EAST
OF THE CENTER...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
RISEN TO 1002 MB...AND THAT BOTH THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS
HAVE DECREASED. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS REDUCED TO A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/9. KAREN IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD
CAUSE KAREN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
THE BIG QUESTION BEING THE TIMING OF THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN. THE
UKMET...NAVGEM...AND CANADIAN MODELS DELAY THE TURN UNTIL AFTER
KAREN MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE GFS SHOWS THE
SHARPEST TURN...AND IT CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF ARE
BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH LANDFALL FORECASTS FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERALL...
THE GUIDANCE IS SLOWER THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO...AND THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST DURING THE FIRST 48
HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS THESE TRENDS WITH A SLIGHT
WESTWARD SHIFT AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. GIVEN THE SPREAD OF
THE GUIDANCE...THE FORECAST OF THE LANDFALL POSITION IS LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER PROBLEMATIC. FIRST...KAREN IS
LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT FOR RENEWED CONVECTION.
SECOND...THE SHEAR MAY DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY IF KAREN TURNS
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE STILL OVER WATER. THE ECMWF SHOWS ABOUT 10 MB
OF DEEPENING AFTER RECURVATURE...AND THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL
MODELS SHOW MORE. BASED ON THESE MODELS AND CURRENT TRENDS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS MODIFIED TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
THROUGH 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...KAREN SHOULD WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MERGES WITH THE DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH.

SINCE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NO
CHANGE IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS IS NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. THIS
WILL BE REVISITED AS KAREN PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 24.9N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 25.9N 90.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 27.0N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 28.0N 90.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 29.1N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 32.5N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 08/0600Z 37.5N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
700 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

...KAREN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 90.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001 LOCATED
ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
49 MPH...79 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON
THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

...KAREN A LITTLE WEAKER...
...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 90.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR
WARNING LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001
LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
51 MPH...83 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON
THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

AFTER BEING DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KAREN...
DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...BUT THE CYCLONE IS STILL BEING
AFFECTED BY 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED
INTO THE CYCLONE. THE LAST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...AND BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF AIRCRAFT
DATA THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 45 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES
NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...WITH MODERATE
SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...IF
THE SHEAR DOES LESSEN...EVEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...DEEP
CONVECTION COULD RE-DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CENTER AND ALLOW FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION. IN ADDITION...BY 48 HOURS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A
STRENGTHENING TO 55 KT BY 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN 325 AND 330 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 9 OR 10 KT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FUTURE TRACK WILL BE
QUITE SENSITIVE TO THE STRUCTURE OF KAREN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. IN THE SHORT TERM A WEAKER SHALLOWER SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED
MORE TOWARD THE LEFT BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE A DEEPER MORE
VERTICALLY COHERENT CYCLONE WOULD TURN NORTHWARD MORE QUICKLY DUE
TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT APPEARANCE OF
KAREN AND THE CONTINUED SHEAR...THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS TOWARD THE UKMET AND
ECMWF MODELS...WHICH SHOW A WEAKER SYSTEM. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD TURN IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...BUT WITH LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THE TURN OCCURS AND
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. AT 36
HOURS AND BEYOND THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AND THE DEPENDENCE OF THE TRACK ON
THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF KAREN...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THE TRACK FORECAST...AND THEREFORE THE DISTRIBUTION OF IMPACTS
ALONG THE COAST...IS LOW.

THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET SAMPLED THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR KAREN AND
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THESE DATA WILL BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...AND HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE STORM.

GIVEN THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE NHC TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. GIVEN
THE WEAKENING TREND AND THE REDUCTION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IT
HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS LIKELKY THAT KAREN WILL REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 25.6N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 26.6N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 27.7N 90.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 28.6N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 29.8N 88.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 33.5N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
100 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

...KAREN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 90.2W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001
LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES...50 KM...EAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
54 MPH...86 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON
THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

...KAREN DISORGANIZED...
...HURRICANE WATCH DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO DESTIN
FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...AND THE
HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ELSEWHERE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
KAREN IS EXPECTED BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SATURDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER...3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED
FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

AFTER A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KAREN IS AGAIN EXPOSED
WEST OF THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY OF KAREN
REMAINS 45 KT...AND A CENTER DROP FROM THE PLANE REPORTED A PRESSURE
OF 1003 MB. MODERATE SHEAR AND DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE
OVERALL INTENSITY CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH
SHORT TERM CHANGES IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN SOME
SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION...AND SHOW THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING ENTIRELY IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. IN PARTICULAR THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH ITS FORECAST OF KAREN
AFTER DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET...WHICH SHOWED 200-MB
WINDS WEST OF KAREN STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...WERE
INCORPORATED INTO THE 12Z ANALYSIS. AFTER 24 HOURS...KAREN COULD
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DUE TO AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...BUT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
NOT EXPECTED. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT KAREN COULD BECOME
COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AND WEAKEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF KAREN HAS VARIED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
CONVECTION WAS TO THE CENTER. AFTER MOVING MORE NORTHWARD EARLIER
THE AFTERNOON THE CENTER HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD AS IT BECAME EXPOSED.
SMOOTHING THROUGH THESE SHORT TERM VARIATIONS...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 335/06. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE HEADING OF THE STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
FORWARD SPEED WITH THE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO TREND SLOWER OVERALL.
THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY 24 HOURS AND THEN
A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN BY 36 HOURS AS KAREN FEELS THE INFLUENCE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE SLOWER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS FASTER AND TO THE
LEFT OF THE ECMWF AND GFS AFTER 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
OF THE TRACK FORECAST...AND THEREFORE THE DISTRIBUTION OF IMPACTS
ALONG THE COAST...REMAINS LOW.

GIVEN THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND DISCONTINUED ELSEWHERE.

THE 12Z HWRF RUN SHOWED CONSIDERABLY LESS INTENSIFICATION WITH KAREN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AFTER ASSIMILATING DATA FROM THE FROM THE
NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR. THIS MARKS THE FIRST TIME DOPPLER
RADAR DATA HAVE BEEN ASSIMILATIED INTO AN OPERATIONAL HURRICANE
MODEL IN REAL TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 25.9N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 26.9N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 27.9N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 28.8N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 29.9N 87.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 33.0N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
700 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

...KAREN HESITATES IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST. KAREN HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE
CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H
LATER TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED BE NEAR THE COAST
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER...3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED
FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/RAPPAPORT

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

...KAREN LOSING PUNCH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OE MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 90.5W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.5 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST ON
SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KAREN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING ON
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER...3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED
FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

KAREN HAS BEEN DECAPITATED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND NOW
CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME LINEAR
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE
PLANES INDICATE THAT THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...BUT THE
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. TROPICAL
STORMS RARELY RECOVER AFTER BEING STRONGLY DAMAGED BY
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS AS DRY AS IT IS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE VIGOROUS CIRCULATION...AND THE
LOW PRESSURE...THE NHC FORECAST KEEPS KAREN WITH 40 KNOTS THROUGH
24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...WHEN THE CYCLONE TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST...
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR KAREN TO STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY IF THE SHEAR RELAXES AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. AS
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT KAREN
REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AND WEAKENS AT A FASTER
PACE. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS BECOMING MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE
CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE. FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST
OPTED TO FOLLOW THE SLIGHT STRENGTHENING INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS
AND THEN ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

KAREN HESITATED A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT NOW IT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. KAREN
IS ABOUT TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOST LIKELY THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE A SHARP TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS
AGREE WITH THIS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 26.4N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 27.1N 90.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 28.1N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 29.0N 88.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 30.5N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 34.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

M

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
100 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

...DISORGANIZED KAREN WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 90.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST LATER
TODAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KAREN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN OIL PLATFORM NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...
63 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 750 FEET.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER...2 TO 4 FT
EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED
FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

...KAREN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 91.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

TERREBONNE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED
FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN



TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

KAREN REMAINS A SHEARED CYCLONE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 80 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASSES INDICATE WINDS OF AT BEST 35 KT IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THERE ARE RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE
CONVECTION...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW REPRESENTATIVE THESE WINDS ARE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT BASED ON THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA.

KAREN JOGGED A BIT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
IT APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 330/7.
THE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY STEERING KAREN SHOULD WEAKEN
TODAY AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
KAREN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON THE TIMING OF THE
NORTHEASTWARD TURN. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED NORTHWARD
BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT CALLS FOR THE
CENTER TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN
24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A FINAL LANDFALL IN ALABAMA OR THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THERE ARE SEVERAL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THE LOW CONFIDENCE
INTENSITY FORECAST. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...AND THE ONE USED IN
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...IS THAT KAREN REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL FINAL LANDFALL. ONE
ALTERNATIVE IS POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO
RE-DEVELOPED CENTRAL CONVECTION. WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT COULD ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN...THEY
ARE FOR THE MOST PART SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AS KAREN
APPROACHES LANDFALL. A SECOND ALTERNATIVE IS THAT KAREN WEAKENS
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO EITHER LACK OF
CONVECTION OR THE START OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AFTER
LANDFALL...KAREN SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT
MERGES WITH THE COLD FRONT.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 27.1N 91.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 27.6N 91.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 28.4N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 29.5N 89.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 31.2N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/0600Z 35.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
700 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

...KAREN MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 91.5W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/H. A DECREASE IN
FORAWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR
THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

TERREBONNE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED
FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

...KAREN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 91.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND PASS NEAR THE
COAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WELL TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN RAINBANDS. KAREN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

TERREBONNE BAY LOUISIANA TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA...1 TO 3 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED
FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KAREN REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON SEVERAL SFMR
WINDS AROUND 35 KT FROM THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT MISSIONS IN KAREN
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. THE NEXT
AIRCRAFT MISSIONS INTO KAREN THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP DETERMINE IF
THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM WEAKENING
TO A DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS
BETWEEN A 30-KT DEPRESSION AND A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD EASILY OCCUR IN CONVECTIVE BANDS.
KAREN SHOULD DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT SHORTLY AFTER
48 HOURS.

KAREN HAS BEEN MOVED QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS TO THE LEFT AND AHEAD OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
355/07...AS KAREN HAS NOW TURNED NORTHWARD. A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD
TURN IS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE MORE
NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION RESULTS IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE NHC
TRACK...WHICH NOW TAKES THE CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
THEN ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH 36 HOURS BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
INLAND. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS PERFORMED
QUITE WELL WITH KAREN...TAKES A WEAKER SYSTEM ALMOST DUE EASTWARD
AFTER 24 HOURS...AND THIS MOTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE CYCLONE
DECOUPLES AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST NOW THAT
KAREN IS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH THE CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...SINCE THE TRACK OF THE CENTER WILL HAVE LESS BEARING ON
WHERE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL OCCUR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 27.9N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 28.7N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 29.4N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0000Z 30.3N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 07/1200Z 31.3N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

...KAREN STALLS...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 91.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. KAREN HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND PASS NEAR THE
COASTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER IN RAINBANDS. KAREN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

TERREBONNE BAY LOUISIANA TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA...1 TO 3 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED
FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

...KAREN STILL A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 91.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA.

ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST
FROM ALABAMA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...
MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...1 TO 3 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED
FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

KAREN HAS NOT GOTTEN ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRY
AIR AND SHEAR CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE. WHILE SOME CONVECTION
RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER FOR A TIME...THE CENTER HAS ACTUALLY
BECOME LESS DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
FOUND A VERY SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE SFMR
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER...SO KAREN IS MAINTAINED AS A
TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION ALOFT IS SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN...WITH PEAK 850-MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ONLY 32 KT. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN KAREN LOSING STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STATUS IN 24 HOURS. AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES...
REMNANT LOW STATUS IN EXPECTED IN 36-48 HOURS...AND KAREN IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IF THE CENTER OF KAREN
LOSES DEFINITION...THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER.

THE MOTION OF KAREN CONTINUES TO BE IRREGULAR. AFTER MOVING NEAR
10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...THE CYCLONE STALLED THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF THIS CYCLE...WITH THESE MODELS ALL SHOWING
KAREN TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THESE MODELS AND SHOWS A TRACK NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST THROUGH DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 28.1N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 28.6N 91.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 29.3N 89.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0600Z 29.6N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 29.7N 84.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN