ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201310062350
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013100700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982013
AL, 98, 2013100600, , BEST, 0, 85N, 208W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013100606, , BEST, 0, 87N, 224W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013100612, , BEST, 0, 89N, 240W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013100618, , BEST, 0, 92N, 256W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013100700, , BEST, 0, 95N, 272W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,



Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115803&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

8 PM TWO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[TJRE]

For the Hard Core... Tropical Weather Junkies

the wave (now invest 98 L) has some upper air support at this moment




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Eumetsat
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/PRODUCTS/MPE/AMERICA/

Ramsdis
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

CIMSS shear map
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=europe&sat=wm7&prod=shr&zoom=&time=


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

72 hours until it's sheared to death. Game on.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

lol

my forecast for 98L and more

http://goo.gl/B7EuDc


I think 98L might develop and becoming the next storm... It all depends.

[cycloneye]

SSD Floater is up

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWD

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N27W TO A 1011 MB LOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 05N27W AND MOVES WEST NEAR
5 KT. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 08N-13N
BETWEEN 22W-30W.

[TJRE]

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS - Total Precipitable Water (MIMIC-TPW)

Juicy


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[stormkite]

Most of the models seem to be keen on this with a few developing a subtropical entity.

[Time_Zone]

Whatevers left might head towards Atlantic Canada eventually.

Bermuda and Atlantic Canada the only areas that it looks like it could affect to me.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Most of the models seem to be keen on this with a few developing a subtropical entity.

Rest assured, a system in the northern hemisphere deep tropics south of 15N will not be subtropical in nature.

[stormkite]

[stormkite]

Most of the models seem to be keen on this with a few developing a subtropical entity.

Rest assured, a system in the northern hemisphere deep tropics south of 15N will not be subtropical in nature.

Rest assured it has happened.
Tropical Storm Allison / Hurricane Nadine Nadine developed from a tropical wave west of Cape Verde.

[Gustywind]

2 AM TWD

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ALONG 28W/29W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W...FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN
26W AND 28W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W. SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO down to 30%.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM EARLY THIS WEEK ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
THAT IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS LATER THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE
DEVELOPMENT LESS LIKELY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[tolakram]

Winds are supposed to become less favorable. 20%

Development less likely later this week. 30%

I am confused.

[cycloneye]

Winds are supposed to become less favorable. 20%

Development less likely later this week. 30%

I am confused.

They are not bullish at all with this system.

[Jevo]

Hahah at this point in this season this is my go to thought everytime an invest goes up

[Andy_L]

LOL can tell that was written at 2 AM

2 AM TWD

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ALONG 28W/29W ....

[StormingB81]

LOL the sad thing is I didn't even catch it when I first read it until I saw you post and looked at it again

LOL can tell that was written at 2 AM

2 AM TWD

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ALONG 28W/29W ....

[cycloneye]

Shear not as powerful as before. After being low before 72 hours,it gets to moderate/strong and then it drops a bit on days 4 and 5.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120


SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 7 8 11 17 28 34 28 23 10 11